美国国家公共电台 NPR--The Fed is expected to raise interest rates to get a grip on rising inflation

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates to get a grip on rising inflation

Transcript¹

The Federal Reserve wants to control inflation, and its number-one weapon is higher interest rates. The Fed is expected to announce another sharp jump in borrowing costs on Wednesday.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Concerns about inflation are increasing, right along with the price of gas, food - you know, the things most of us need each and every single day. Federal Reserve Board is trying to do what it can to fight off a recession, and its No. 1 weapon is higher interest rates. The Fed is expected to announce another sharp jump in borrowing costs later today. NPR's chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley is watching that meeting closely.

The Fed's attitude toward interest rates hikes, to me, felt like that proverb - slow and steady wins the race. But now it could be less tortoise, more hare.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE²: A week ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Fed was going to raise interest rates by another half percentage point today, just as it did last month and just as it telegraphed it would likely do next month. But now a lot of forecasters are betting the Fed will go bigger than that and raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percent this afternoon. If so, that would be the largest increase since 1994. And of course, it would mean higher borrowing costs for anyone with a credit card balance or looking for a car loan or a new home mortgage.

MART?NEZ: Yeah. What's changed, though? I mean, why are we likely to see bigger rate increases?

HORSLEY: A big part of it is that ugly inflation report we got last week. It showed consumer prices up 8.6% in May compared to a year ago. Soaring gasoline prices were a big part of that, but the increase was really broad-based. You know, rents are up. Airfares are climbing. Used car prices are on the rise again.

Chief economist³ Jay Bryson at Wells Fargo says the report dispelled⁴ any notion that inflation is going to go quietly without a fight.

JAY BRYSON: The bottom line is it seems like inflation is becoming more entrenched⁵. And for many people, I think that was the game changer.

HORSLEY: There's also some survey data suggesting people's expectations of future inflation are creeping up, and that's worrisome because it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And finally, The Wall Street Journal and other news outlets⁶ published stories on Monday afternoon saying the Fed is likely to consider a larger rate hike. While those stories did not quote any Fed officials, a lot of people saw that as a kind of smoke signal designed to prepare the ground for a larger rate increase.

MART?NEZ: All right, assuming the Fed is doubling down on higher interest rates, how does that help with inflation?

HORSLEY: Well, right now there's just a lot of demand in the U.S. and around the world. People want to buy more than businesses are producing right now, and that's driving up prices as a result. By making it more expensive to borrow money, the Fed hopes to tamp⁷ down demand and get prices back under control. Ordinarily, that takes time. But you are beginning to see the effects in the housing market, where mortgage rates have jumped sharply in anticipation⁸ of the Fed's moves.

Mark Hamrick is a senior economic analyst⁹ at Bankrate. He says the average rate on a 30-year fixed¹⁰ loan is now close to 6%. That's double what it was a year ago.

MARK HAMRICK: We're going to see some of the highest mortgage rates that we have seen in many, many years. And along with the high home prices that have been seen all across the country, this housing affordability¹¹ question is only going to sort of move from the yellow to the red zone.

HORSLEY: That's already starting to weigh on demand for houses, which should translate to lower demand for furniture and appliances and everything else. What's more, we expect the Fed to keep raising interest rates in the months to come.

MART?NEZ: Wow. All right. That sounds painful. Is this why a lot of people seem to be worried about a recession?

HORSLEY: Yeah, it's no fun. Businesses are going to find it's more expensive to borrow money and expand. The stock market's taking a hit, which makes people feel less wealthy and less likely to spend. Bryson doesn't think we're necessarily headed for a recession, but he does think the path to avoiding a downturn is pretty narrow.

BRYSON: I think best-case scenario¹² is you're looking at a landing that may be quite bumpy¹³. You're looking at a period of relatively¹⁴ slow growth next year.

HORSLEY: And we'll also get new forecasts from the Fed today about inflation, unemployment and economic growth.

MART?NEZ: NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks a lot.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 dispelled   

v.驱散，赶跑( dispel的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• His speech dispelled any fears about his health. 他的发言消除了人们对他身体健康的担心。
• The sun soon dispelled the thick fog. 太阳很快驱散了浓雾。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 entrenched   

adj.确立的，不容易改的(风俗习惯)

参考例句：

• Television seems to be firmly entrenched as the number one medium for national advertising.电视看来要在全国广告媒介中牢固地占据头等位置。
• If the enemy dares to attack us in these entrenched positions,we will make short work of them.如果敌人胆敢进攻我们固守的阵地，我们就消灭他们。

6 outlets   

n.出口( outlet的名词复数 )；经销店；插座；廉价经销店

参考例句：

• The dumping of foreign cotton blocked outlets for locally grown cotton. 外国棉花的倾销阻滞了当地生产的棉花的销路。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They must find outlets for their products. 他们必须为自己的产品寻找出路。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

7 tamp   

v.捣实，砸实

参考例句：

• Then I tamp down the soil with the back of a rake.然后我用耙子的背将土壤拍实。
• Philpott tamped a wad of tobacco into his pipe.菲尔波特往烟斗里塞了一卷碎烟叶。

8 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

11 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

12 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

13 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。

14 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。