美国国家公共电台 NPR--Why orchestrating a soft landing for the high-flying economy is so tough

Why orchestrating a soft landing for the high-flying economy is so tough

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to economist² Claudia Sahm about interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and this week's release of quarterly economic growth numbers.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Joining us now to talk more about the expected Federal Reserve rate hike is Claudia Sahm. She's a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist. Welcome to the program.

CLAUDIA SAHM: Thank you. Happy to be here.

FADEL: Glad to have you. So the Fed has this daunting³ task, to orchestrate a soft landing for the high-flying economy. We've already seen markets tumble and that slowdown we just heard about in home purchases and construction. Why is this soft landing so hard to achieve?

SAHM: Well, there's a lot of reasons. The Federal Reserve has a very blunt tool. When it increases its interest rate, then it moves throughout the financial world, they can't really control it. Mortgage rates have gone up more than the Federal Reserve has increased its policy rate. So it's a very blunt instrument. We have a very complex economy - more than a $20 trillion economy. Layer on top of that 2 1/2 years of a pandemic with COVID.

FADEL: Yeah.

SAHM: And now we have a war in Ukraine. So it's extremely hard to read. It's hard to even understand where the economy is right now, let alone where it is headed. And so - and the Federal Reserve policy takes some time to work its way through the economy. So they're - they really have a tough road ahead of them. But I think, as was said in the last segment, they are not trying to cause a recession, right? And that's a big difference 'cause if they wanted to, the Federal Reserve has tools that could make that happen.

FADEL: Now, some economists⁴ say we might need a recession to cool down inflation. Is that something you agree with?

SAHM: Absolutely not. I - the thinking behind that is rules of thumb - frankly⁵, outdated⁶ methods within the economics profession. And the stakes are so high here. A recession is worse than inflation. It doesn't just affect the people who lose their jobs. It's - you want a raise; you want to move to a better job. That just - it's happening right now because we have a very strong labor⁷ market. We lose that when we go into a recession, and that's bad.

FADEL: There's been a lot of debate about when we actually are in a recession. Can you define when that is defined in the economy? When is the country in a recession?

SAHM: Yeah. It's been a very robust⁸ debate and one that, frankly, I don't think is very productive. I - you know, times - there's a lot of hardship right now.

FADEL: Right.

SAHM: Inflation is high. That's bad. Recessions are bad. So I think there's a lot of connection between the two. To me, the reason that we hate recessions the way we - the reason we fight recessions is because millions of people lose their jobs. We're not seeing that right now.

FADEL: Right.

SAHM: Like, GDP is not the end-all, be-all. It's people. But we could get there. And that, I think, is what we should be really concerned about, not, what do we label what's happened in the first half of this year?

FADEL: Now, you mentioned it will take time to see whether what the Fed is doing is actually working. Where do we look for those signs?

SAHM: Right. Well, we're going to look in jobs. We talked a lot about the labor market. We're going to look for is - what the Fed needs to do right now is cool off demand, get consumers not to buy at so fast a pace. What we've seen, you know, in - for several months, you know, well into last year, is consumers buying more and more at a pace that is above average. I mean, that really wasn't sustainable. So it's trying to cool off demand - same in businesses - just cool it off a little bit with investment but not throw it into reverse. So the Fed is going to look for signs that demand is cooling off.

But above all, they have been very clear that they are looking for a convincing step down in inflation, at least month over month. And we haven't seen that. And they are not going to stop until they see that 'cause they don't want inflation to get out of control and continue into the future. So above all, they're looking at the prices we pay and how much they are increasing month over month.

FADEL: So they're looking for a slowdown in inflation, which they're not seeing yet. But we have seen some modest decline in gas prices. Is there any expectation that there could be a broader retreat in costs like that?

SAHM: Yeah. I think gas prices are tricky⁹. For the Fed - I mean, they're one of those areas, like food, where the Fed has very little control. It's about supply, right? The Federal Reserve cannot go out and drill oil. They cannot, you know, plant wheat. So the Fed isn't going to get too excited about gas prices coming down. Where they need to see it is in other places in the economy, like the used cars and the housing, right? They need to see a cool there. There are some signs. But we got burned last year. There were some signs last year, and then inflation took off again.

FADEL: Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist. Thank you so much.

SAHM: Yes. Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

6 outdated   

adj.旧式的，落伍的，过时的；v.使过时

参考例句：

• That list of addresses is outdated,many have changed.那个通讯录已经没用了，许多地址已经改了。
• Many of us conform to the outdated customs laid down by our forebears.我们许多人都遵循祖先立下的过时习俗。

7 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

8 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

9 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。