美国国家公共电台 NPR--The Fed hopes another aggressive rate hike will help to tame high inflation

The Fed hopes another aggressive rate hike will help to tame high inflation

Transcript¹

The Federal Reserve is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by an additional three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday, as it continues to fight high inflation.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce another big increase in interest rates today.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Prices have continued to rise at their fastest pace in a generation, and the Federal Reserve is trying to get inflation under control. But is it working?

MART?NEZ: NPR's David Gura is here to tell us all about it. David, I think we all expect an interest rate hike, but David, how high might it be?

DAVID GURA, BYLINE²: Yeah, so Wall Street expects an interest rate increase of another three-quarters of a percentage point, which would be a big hike. It would be the fourth hike this year. And we haven't seen moves of this magnitude in decades. It's an indication that this continues to be an economy under pressure from inflation. Now, the Fed is trying to take away the incentive³ to spend by making the cost of borrowing more expensive. Michelle Meyer is the U.S. chief economist⁴ at the MasterCard Economics Institute, and she says the Fed is trying really hard here to strike the right balance.

MICHELLE MEYER: They need to push the economy enough in terms of weakening growth to take out some of that price pressure, but not too much where they create damage to the real economy and threaten recession.

GURA: Now, A, this is challenging because the Fed's tools are not precise. This isn't going to be painless, and this goes beyond demand. The war in Ukraine has sent the price of gas and other commodities like wheat higher. And then there were supply chain issues. And the Fed can't do much about either of those.

MART?NEZ: I think what people want to know is, are there signs of if the Fed's policies are working?

GURA: Absolutely. We've seen them cool what was a very hot housing market. The average rate on a 30-year fixed⁵ rate mortgage is now at about 5 1/2%. That's almost double what it was last year. And we've seen demand for those mortgages taper⁶ off along with new home sales and construction. You know, inflation did not go down in June. The Consumer Price Index jumped to 9.1% from a year earlier. Food and energy prices drove that. And we have seen the average cost of a gallon of regular gas drop from its record high in June, down by about 69 cents. But the economic data are sending mixed messages, and the Fed has not gotten a clear indication inflation has peaked, never mind a sign that it's started to subside⁷.

MART?NEZ: So if the Fed continues on this path, what are the risks?

GURA: So the Fed's big fear is this doesn't end with a soft landing for the U.S. economy that we've heard so much about, that instead the Fed triggers a deep downturn. Now, some economists⁸ say a recession is necessary to get inflation under control. Basically, we need a sharper slowdown to kick this. Well, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that is not what he and his colleagues are trying to do right now, and, A, he believes they have the capacity to deal with high inflation without triggering a recession.

MART?NEZ: David, it feels like what we've talked about is the if-this part. So now what will be the then-that part?

GURA: Yeah. If this works, borrowing costs will continue to go up. We'll see a decline in demand for goods and services. You know, I said this isn't going to be painless. And we've already seen some companies slow hiring and cut staff. This week, the e-commerce company Shopify laid off a thousand people, and hundreds of tech companies have cut jobs. Economist Michelle Meyer says we're going to see more of an effect on what has been a strong labor⁹ market, and Americans are going to feel that.

MEYER: To me, I think a lot of it comes down to jobs - whether you have a job, whether you expect to keep your job, and what that might mean for your future path of income.

MART?NEZ: David, one more thing - tomorrow we're going to get that all-important report card on the economy. Tell us about that.

GURA: That's right. GDP, gross domestic product for the second quarter - this will tell us how much the economy grew or how much it shrank. And what we could see are two consecutive¹⁰ quarters of negative growth, which in general has signaled a recession, even though it is not the technical official definition of one. And there is, I want to underscore, a lot that's unique about this moment. First and foremost, the economy is still adding jobs month after month - 372,000 new jobs in June - even as the Fed raised interest rates aggressively, which, A, is not something we've seen going into past recessions.

MART?NEZ: NPR's David Gura, thanks a lot.

GURA: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

6 taper   

n.小蜡烛，尖细，渐弱；adj.尖细的；v.逐渐变小

参考例句：

• You'd better taper off the amount of time given to rest.你最好逐渐地减少休息时间。
• Pulmonary arteries taper towards periphery.肺动脉向周围逐渐变细。

7 subside   

vi.平静，平息；下沉，塌陷，沉降

参考例句：

• The emotional reaction which results from a serious accident takes time to subside.严重事故所引起的情绪化的反应需要时间来平息。
• The controversies surrounding population growth are unlikely to subside soon.围绕着人口增长问题的争论看来不会很快平息。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

10 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。