美国国家公共电台 NPR--Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates

Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates

Transcript¹

Higher mortgage rates are throwing a bucket of ice-water on the super-heated housing market. Home prices in August were down about 6% from their peak in June, the biggest 2-month drop in prices in nearly a decade. The pace of home sales slowed for the 7th straight month.

"The housing market certainly reacts to the monetary² policy change," says Lawrence Yun, the chief economist³ for the National Association of Realtors which just released the new existing home sales numbers.

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to fight inflation. Mortgage rates anticipate future moves by the fed and bond markets more broadly, so they rose very sharply earlier this year — from around 3% to up above 6%.

"That magnitude of the mortgage rate increase is one of the largest, quickest increases in such a short span of time," says Yun. He says the number of home sales each month is now down about 20 percent from a year ago.

Don't call it a housing crash

That's not to say we're in a housing crash. Just about all economists⁴ agree this is different than in 2008, when the bottom fell out of the housing market.

Right now, the nation is in the midst of a severe housing shortage. For a decade following the 2008 crash, builders didn't build enough homes. Today homes are still getting snapped up by buyers and put under-agreement in near-record time — just 16 days on average.

Home prices nationally are still up about 8% from a year ago according to the realtor's group. Low supply and strong demand should continue to buoy⁵ up prices.

Also, Congress changed the rules for mortgages after the housing bubble when subprime lenders put millions of Americans into loans they couldn't afford. Today homebuyers have to demonstrate that they can afford their loans.

Home prices probably will keep falling

Home prices likely will continue to drop. That's because super-low interest rates combined with super-heated demand during the pandemic pushed prices up so dramatically so quickly — up about 30-40% in just the past 2 years.

Mark Zandy with Moody's Analytics predicts home prices across the nation will fall about 10 percent from their peak. Areas that experienced the most dramatic price increases could see even bigger drops, he says.

"The previously⁶ most juiced-up markets, like a Phoenix⁷ or Orlando, will see peak-to-trough declines of closer to 20%," Zandi estimates.

That's if the country doesn't fall into a recession. Economists say it's quite possible that in its fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve could slow the economy so much that it does tip the country into recession.

"If the economy suffers a recession," Zandi says, "national house prices will decline as much as 15% peak-to-trough, and close to 30% in the hardest hit markets."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 buoy   

n.浮标；救生圈；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The party did little to buoy up her spirits.这次聚会并没有让她振作多少。
• The buoy floated back and forth in the shallow water.这个浮标在浅水里漂来漂去。

6 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

7 phoenix   

n.凤凰，长生(不死)鸟；引申为重生

参考例句：

• The airline rose like a phoenix from the ashes.这家航空公司又起死回生了。
• The phoenix worship of China is fetish worship not totem adoration.中国凤崇拜是灵物崇拜而非图腾崇拜。