美国国家公共电台 NPR--What Putin's partial mobilization announcement means for Ukraine

What Putin's partial mobilization announcement means for Ukraine

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez talks to retired² Col. Mark Cancian about what Putin's partial mobilization of the Russian military and attempts to annex³ Ukrainian territory tell us about the next phase of the war.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Open dissent⁴ in Russia after President Vladimir Putin announced he's calling up Russian reserves to fight in the war against Ukraine. According to OVD-Info, the human rights watchdog that monitors police activity, just over 1,300 people across dozens of cities were detained for protesting the partial mobilization order. That's an order that would usher⁵ in a new phase of the war. To get at that, let's bring in retired Marine⁶ Corps⁷ Colonel Mark Cancian. He's a senior adviser⁸ at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Colonel, most reports suggest these protests were driven primarily by young people, and the numbers are relatively⁹ small. But how telling to you is this level of dissent in the current climate?

MARK CANCIAN: Well, it's telling in the sense that Putin had been able to suppress protests in recent months. There were some protests at the very beginning of the war. Putin suppressed those, and there really haven't been any since then. Putin has dominated the information life of Russia. He's been able to put his views out there and suppress opposing views. So the fact that there were protests is quite significant.

MART?NEZ: How would you explain who'd be part of this partial mobilization? What's your understanding of what someone looks like that would be called in to fight in this war?

CANCIAN: Well, the first thing about this mobilization is that the number 300,000 has been put out there. That's an estimate. And it's not like 300,000 new troops are going to appear on the battlefield any time soon. What the Russians have done is they are going to pull in people who were in the military and have now got out. The Russians don't have a reserve system the way the United States and many Western countries do. That is, they don't have units that periodically train. They just have names on a list of people who were formerly¹⁰ in the service. So they start calling those people in and putting them back in the uniform, maybe giving them a little retraining and then sending them to units probably to fill them out and replace casualties.

MART?NEZ: So it could be a while before they're battle-ready, or maybe for Russia, it doesn't matter how battle-ready they are.

CANCIAN: Well, it's probably a little of both. It's going to take weeks or months for most of these people to be ready to be called up, to do some retraining. They certainly won't get the level of training that the U.S. does for its reserve forces. On the other hand, the Ukrainians aren't terribly well trained either. This is a war where you have two armies that have expanded and, you know, whose troops are not terribly well trained.

MART?NEZ: One of the things that we've seen with Ukraine - a will to win, and maybe we haven't seen that necessarily with Russia. What problems, Colonel, could arise if the reservists that are called in - say, the first wave - if some of them maybe don't want to fight?

CANCIAN: Well, they're certainly going to have some problems with morale¹¹ because a lot of these people are older and weren't expecting to go back into the military. So this will continue the kinds of morale problems that we've seen in the Russian forces. On the other hand, I would not overestimate¹² that. I mean, you know, the Russians have had a lot of morale problems. But they're still fighting. And, you know, the Russians, I think historically, have been able to carry on conflicts even in the face of adversity. So although I think that's a real problem, I wouldn't discount the ability of the Russian forces to continue the war.

MART?NEZ: If you're troops in Ukraine, if you're leaders of Ukraine's military, how do you see and process what's coming at you? Are you energized¹³ that it's maybe people that aren't as battle-ready as you are?

CANCIAN: Well, I think that this signals Russia's intention to continue this war for an extended period of time. They've taken a lot of casualties. Estimates are around 80,000. Their forces were not very large to begin with - only 150, 180,000 - you know, much smaller than the Russian - the Soviet¹⁴ forces, for example. So this is going to fill up the ranks maybe. But the big thing is this will - the intention is to allow the Russians to continue resistance. I think Putin's goal is to keep the war going until the winter. And then he hopes that high energy prices and the cold weather will push the Europeans to ask for an armistice¹⁵ of some sort.

MART?NEZ: Retired Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Colonel, thanks.

CANCIAN: Thanks for having me on the show.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

3 annex   

vt.兼并，吞并；n.附属建筑物

参考例句：

• It plans to annex an England company in order to enlarge the market.它计划兼并一家英国公司以扩大市场。
• The annex has been built on to the main building.主楼配建有附属的建筑物。

4 dissent   

n./v.不同意，持异议

参考例句：

• It is too late now to make any dissent.现在提出异议太晚了。
• He felt her shoulders gave a wriggle of dissent.他感到她的肩膀因为不同意而动了一下。

5 usher   

n.带位员，招待员；vt.引导，护送；vi.做招待，担任引座员

参考例句：

• The usher seated us in the front row.引座员让我们在前排就座。
• They were quickly ushered away.他们被迅速领开。

6 marine   

adj.海的；海生的；航海的；海事的；n.水兵

参考例句：

• Marine creatures are those which live in the sea. 海洋生物是生存在海里的生物。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

7 corps   

n.(通信等兵种的)部队；(同类作的)一组

参考例句：

• The medical corps were cited for bravery in combat.医疗队由于在战场上的英勇表现而受嘉奖。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

8 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

9 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

10 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

11 morale   

n.道德准则，士气，斗志

参考例句：

• The morale of the enemy troops is sinking lower every day.敌军的士气日益低落。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

12 overestimate   

v.估计过高，过高评价

参考例句：

• Don't overestimate seriousness of the problem.别把问题看重了。
• We overestimate our influence and our nuisance value.我们过高地估计了自己的影响力和破坏作用。

13 energized   

v.给予…精力，能量( energize的过去式和过去分词 )；使通电

参考例句：

• We are energized by love if we put our energy into loving. 如果我们付出能量去表现爱意，爱就会使我们充满活力。 来自辞典例句
• I am completely energized and feeling terrific. 我充满了活力，感觉非常好。 来自辞典例句

14 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

15 armistice   

n.休战，停战协定

参考例句：

• The two nations signed an armistice.两国签署了停火协议。
• The Italian armistice is nothing but a clumsy trap.意大利的停战不过是一个笨拙的陷阱。