美国国家公共电台 NPR--When another military offensive might happen in Ukraine, and what it would look like

When another military offensive might happen in Ukraine, and what it would look like

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks with retired² U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges about when we might see another major military offensive in Ukraine.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Let's bring in Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe. We have found him in Germany. General, welcome to the program. And Happy New Year.

BEN HODGES: Happy New Year, Steve. Thank you.

INSKEEP: So we just heard that survey. Many, many Ukrainians seem to think that victory is within their grasp within eight or nine months, end of summer. Is that possible?

HODGES: It's absolutely possible, Steve. And I would say it's likely. I think that Ukraine has the chance to liberate³ Crimea by the end of August, the end of this summer. And once Crimea is liberated⁴, which is the decisive part of Ukraine for this war, the rest would follow soon after that because that would unleash⁵ all sorts of internal challenges for the Kremlin afterwards.

INSKEEP: Wow. That would be a dramatic change. You're saying that you think Ukraine has a chance to move forward, not just recapture territory that the Russians captured in recent months, but to recapture this peninsula that the Russians have held since 2014. I'm just thinking of the technical difficulty - the tactical difficulty of that, General. It's a very narrow neck of the peninsula even getting on there. The Russians, you think, could not even defend that little space?

HODGES: Well, of course, if this was the 18th or even the 19th century, that's how people would try to attack it. But that's not how the Ukrainians are going to do it. I'm glad you mentioned 2014 because here we are after eight years since Russia invaded Ukraine, eight years. Russia still controls only about 10 to 12% of Ukraine despite having every single advantage. And they are losing their grip on the percentage that they do control. I anticipate that Ukraine will isolate⁶ Crimea by going after the only two roads that connect the Crimean Peninsula to the mainland. The most well-known, of course, is where the Kerch Bridge connects.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

HODGES: And it's already been hit very hard. And I'm sure it will be revisited several times. The other land line of communication is the so-called land bridge that runs from Rostov through Mariupol to Melitopol and to Crimea. And the Ukrainians are already able to hit that. So by doing that over the next couple of months, pretty soon, I think, Crimea becomes untenable for the Russians.

INSKEEP: You're telling me that acting⁷ through the air or through the water, the Ukrainians can isolate and besiege⁸ Crimea until they give up?

HODGES: Yeah, war is a test of will. And it's a test of logistics. And the Russian logistics system was never designed to support sustained land operations outside of Russia. But that's what they've been having to do for 10 months. And so they're trying to string it out as long as they can by feeding untrained, unlucky men into the battle around Bakhmut, as Julian just talked about, but also by going after the power grid⁹ to make this go as long as possible until we lose the will to support Ukraine. That's not working. And so the Ukrainians will be able to disrupt and degrade Russian logistics enough that Crimea eventually becomes a trap for the Russian forces there.

INSKEEP: Do you see any sign, General, that the Russians are recognizing their own errors and making proper course corrections?

HODGES: I think that it's a great question. I can't tell for sure what all is going on inside there. They have tried to fix one of their main problems, which was unity¹⁰ of command, by appointing this guy, General Surovikin. But even he does not have total command over everything. You've got mercenary groups like the Wagner Group. Shoigu, the defense¹¹ minister, has his own private military company. And Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechens, is doing a pretty good job of keeping Chechen forces out of the meat grinder so that he is positioned, in the aftermath, to either be the savior or to - or the replacement¹².

INSKEEP: You're telling me that there's really not unified¹³ command, that people are still not putting everything on the line?

HODGES: It is a very incoherent command organization. Not one day in 10 months have they done what the U.S. would call joint¹⁴ operations, where you have air, land and sea operating together. Thank God they have not been able to fix that. And I don't think it's in their culture to fix it. Instead, they rely on what they did. They rely on what they did a hundred years ago, which is mass artillery¹⁵ and untrained infantry¹⁶.

INSKEEP: And sending masses and masses of people into the fight. General, thank you so much.

HODGES: Thanks for the privilege.

INSKEEP: That's U.S. Army retired Lieutenant¹⁷ General Ben Hodges.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

3 liberate   

v.解放，使获得自由，释出，放出；vt.解放，使获自由

参考例句：

• They did their best to liberate slaves.他们尽最大能力去解放奴隶。
• This will liberate him from economic worry.这将消除他经济上的忧虑。

4 liberated   

a.无拘束的，放纵的

参考例句：

• The city was liberated by the advancing army. 军队向前挺进，解放了那座城市。
• The heat brings about a chemical reaction, and oxygen is liberated. 热量引起化学反应，释放出氧气。

5 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

6 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

7 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

8 besiege   

vt.包围，围攻，拥在...周围

参考例句：

• The Afghan air force was using helicopters to supply the besieged town.阿富汗空军正用直升机向被围城镇提供补给。
• She was besieged by the press and the public.她被媒体和公众纠缠不休。

9 grid   

n.高压输电线路网；地图坐标方格；格栅

参考例句：

• In this application,the carrier is used to encapsulate the grid.在这种情况下，要用载体把格栅密封起来。
• Modern gauges consist of metal foil in the form of a grid.现代应变仪则由网格形式的金属片组成。

10 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

11 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

12 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

13 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

14 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

15 artillery   

n.(军)火炮，大炮；炮兵(部队)

参考例句：

• This is a heavy artillery piece.这是一门重炮。
• The artillery has more firepower than the infantry.炮兵火力比步兵大。

16 infantry   

n.[总称]步兵(部队)

参考例句：

• The infantry were equipped with flame throwers.步兵都装备有喷火器。
• We have less infantry than the enemy.我们的步兵比敌人少。

17 lieutenant   

n.陆军中尉，海军上尉；代理官员，副职官员

参考例句：

• He was promoted to be a lieutenant in the army.他被提升为陆军中尉。
• He prevailed on the lieutenant to send in a short note.他说动那个副官，递上了一张简短的便条进去。