美国国家公共电台 NPR--What we can expect from the economy in 2023

What we can expect from the economy in 2023

Transcript¹

What can we expect from the economy in 2023? NPR's Rob Schmitz puts the question to David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution.

ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:

Last year's economy was, well, weird². Inflation hit a 40-year high. Interest rates surged. Stocks plunged⁴. Crypto crashed. Yet the job market remained strong. Let's ask David Wessel what to expect in the new year. He's a senior fellow in economic studies and director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution.

David, good morning.

DAVID WESSEL: Good morning.

SCHMITZ: One of the biggest economic stories of 2022, David, was the Federal Reserve's war on inflation. Is this a war the Fed can win this year?

WESSEL: So I think the honest answer is, maybe. The Fed has raised interest rates very fast, took its key rate from 0 to 4.25% this year. And it says it's going to keep raising interest rates, albeit⁵ at a slower pace, until it's convinced that inflation is headed back down towards its 2% goal. Now, some of the forces that had been pushing prices up are abating⁶. The cost of shipping⁷ containers across the Pacific is down. Used car prices have fallen for five months in a row. Home prices are starting to come down. And that's going to pull down the headline inflation rate, but probably not all the way to the Fed's 2% goal.

So Jay Powell, the Fed chair, says he's going to keep raising interest rates. He's focused on the pace of wage increases, which he says are simply rising too fast to be consistent with the Fed hitting its inflation target. And he's basically saying, we're going to keep squeezing the economy, holding interest rates at a higher level until the job market weakens and unemployment rises enough that employers don't have to give such big raises to retain workers and the inflation dragon is slain⁸.

SCHMITZ: You mentioned higher unemployment being a consequence of this. What does that say about the risk of recession in the new year?

WESSEL: Well, it means there's a pretty big risk. Look, the Fed is saying, we want to slow the economy. They have said in their public forecast that they expect the unemployment rate, now at a historically low 3.7%, declined by nearly one full percentage point in 2023. That works out to 14 million more workers looking for jobs. Now, whether that means a recession, a shrinking economy, it's hard to say. It's going to feel like one for those workers and their families. There are forecasters who think the Fed can pull this off, can cool the labor⁹ market, bring down inflation without triggering a recession. But most of them expect one in 2023.

SCHMITZ: David, a lot has been said about the COVID-related changes in the workplace. I'm talking about, you know, working from home, quiet quitting, early retirement¹⁰, these sorts of things. Will these trends continue in 2023?

WESSEL: It's a really good question and hard to answer. how much of what happened during COVID is temporary, and we're going to go back to the way things were before, and how much has permanently¹¹ changed? With so many work - employers complaining about labor shortages, workers have been able to insist on all sorts of flexibility¹² about working from home. But I think if there's more workers looking for jobs, more unemployment, the balance of power may shift towards employers, and it may be that they're less willing to be flexible.

It certainly looks like a lot of people - a lot of office workers - will be working from home at least a couple of days a week. And that really has really negative implications for mass transit¹³ systems, for commercial real estate downtown, for the people who sell sandwiches to workers. Meanwhile, there are an awful lot of people still on the sidelines of the labor market, not even looking for work, a lot more than before the pandemic.

So among older workers, the decline in worker - in labor force participation¹⁴ is among the over-70 crowd, not really early retirement. But the fraction of men between 25 and 54, mostly too old to be in school and too young to retire, has been declining for years, took a big plunge³ during the pandemic. It's been creeping up, but it's still far short of the pre-pandemic level.

SCHMITZ: That's David Wessel. He's the director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution.

David, thank you.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 weird   

adj.古怪的，离奇的；怪诞的，神秘而可怕的

参考例句：

• From his weird behaviour,he seems a bit of an oddity.从他不寻常的行为看来，他好像有点怪。
• His weird clothes really gas me.他的怪衣裳简直笑死人。

3 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

4 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

5 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

6 abating   

减少( abate的现在分词 )； 减去； 降价； 撤消（诉讼）

参考例句：

• The storm showed no signs of abating. 暴风雨没有减弱的迹象。
• The recent public anxiety about this issue may now be abating. 近来公众对这个问题的焦虑心情现在也许正在缓和下来。

7 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

8 slain   

杀死，宰杀，杀戮( slay的过去分词 )； (slay的过去分词)

参考例句：

• The soldiers slain in the battle were burried that night. 在那天夜晚埋葬了在战斗中牺牲了的战士。
• His boy was dead, slain by the hand of the false Amulius. 他的儿子被奸诈的阿缪利乌斯杀死了。

9 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

10 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

11 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

12 flexibility   

n.柔韧性，弹性，（光的）折射性，灵活性

参考例句：

• Her great strength lies in her flexibility.她的优势在于她灵活变通。
• The flexibility of a man's muscles will lessen as he becomes old.人老了肌肉的柔韧性将降低。

13 transit   

n.经过，运输；vt.穿越，旋转；vi.越过

参考例句：

• His luggage was lost in transit.他的行李在运送中丢失。
• The canal can transit a total of 50 ships daily.这条运河每天能通过50条船。

14 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。