美国国家公共电台 NPR--Eurasia Group releases its forecast of the top political risks for 2023

Eurasia Group releases its forecast of the top political risks for 2023

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, which lists the growing power of China's Xi Jinping among this year's top political risks.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

The year begins with even less doubt who's in charge in China. Xi Jinping installed himself for a third term as leader, dismissing a system of slowly rotating presidents. But analyst² Ian Bremmer argues this seeming stability makes China more hazardous³. His Eurasia Group put China's leader on their list of global risks in the new year.

IAN BREMMER: China is not only the most powerful it has been in modern history, but it is also now run in an incredibly consolidated⁴ way by one man. So it's as consolidated a dictatorship as we've seen since the days of Mao. But back in the Mao days, horrible things that happened in China or deeply suddenly surprising things didn't have much of an impact on the global economy, on global health, on global security. That's not true anymore. So you put those two things together - maximum Xi together with maximum China - and China is suddenly at the top of the list.

INSKEEP: Let's talk through why consolidated leadership would go wrong, because in theory, that sounds stable.

BREMMER: You know, it's funny. Almost all of the major risks on our list today are around this issue - the idea that when you have really powerful people that don't have the benefit of significant expert inputs⁵ around them, they're making decisions in ways that don't have checks and balances internally. And as a consequence, they surprise everyone with great suddenness, right? I mean, when - in the United States, a lot of people were very concerned that Trump⁶ was the end of democracy. And yet we saw that when there were things that he tried to do that were really beyond the pale, he was prevented to do them by people around him that could stop him, by expert opinions that would stop him, by checks and balances.

INSKEEP: Or just the democratic system and lawsuits⁷ and that sort of thing.

BREMMER: Exactly. None of that exists in China. And by the way, a fair amount of it did exist at the beginning of Xi Jinping's rule 10 years ago. But he has systematically⁸ taken that system apart and now everything runs up to him.

INSKEEP: How does that sudden change on zero-COVID, going from that policy of trying to crack down to loosening things dramatically in a very short period of time, change the risks that you see for 2023?

BREMMER: Well, first of all, it's going to lead to well over a million Chinese likely dying. Now, that's frankly⁹, believe it or not, not much of a risk because the dead don't protest, and the Chinese government isn't going to admit to these people dying. They're not going to provide data. But for example, one major risk directly that stems from this is we're just not going to have information on these new cases and therefore on any potential new variants¹⁰ and any potentially dangerous new variants. The hospitals are going to be overwhelmed, and they're not going to be working closely with the World Health Organization, just as it's been for the last three years, or with organizations like the CDC around the world. Given that the epicenter for COVID is once again, as it was in 2020, in China, and China is the least transparent¹¹ and cooperative with the rest of the world on that health data, that's a pretty big problem.

INSKEEP: Would we not assume that Xi Jinping, if he has nothing else, has competent economic managers around him who would know how to keep China's economy on course?

BREMMER: Yes. Yes, we would assume that. But also the priority in China of ensuring that the politics are stable irrespective of the economic hits that they take has been a defining piece of Xi Jinping's rule for the last 10 years. So, no, he doesn't have the same level of technocrats¹² around him that he did five years ago, 10 years ago. He's not getting the same level of economic data that he used to, nor is China publishing it. And it's not clear he's listening to the few competent people he has around him. And that's - in other words, the same kind of challenges that we have now seen on zero-COVID, we should expect to start seeing in the Chinese economy.

INSKEEP: A few days ago on this program, we spoke¹³ with Mike Gallagher. He's a Republican representative, head of a new House committee focused on China. And he asserted that we're entering the, quote, "window of maximum danger" of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, specifically because Xi is so much more extremely in charge.

BREMMER: He's a friend. I've spoken with him about this. We disagree on this specific issue. I agree that there is a growing danger on Taiwan, but I don't think it's near-term. It's not in the next 12 months. Part of that is because the Chinese have seen how just how well the Americans and allies have responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And so they need to sharpen their pencils - the Chinese do - on their own military capabilities¹⁴.

Part of it is because the Chinese really need access to TSMC, the world's most strategically important company. They provide the most important semiconductors¹⁵ for a Chinese government and economy that can't yet produce them themselves. They are going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years to try to make up that gap with the United States. But they're not there yet. And as a consequence, a sudden military strike against Taiwan would do incredible damage to the Chinese economy, at a time that they really can't afford it.

INSKEEP: Ian Bremmer is the president of the Eurasia Group. And maximum Xi, as he puts it, is one of the items on his list of risks for 2023. Thanks so much.

BREMMER: Steve, my pleasure.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 hazardous   

adj.(有)危险的，冒险的；碰运气的

参考例句：

• These conditions are very hazardous for shipping.这些情况对航海非常不利。
• Everybody said that it was a hazardous investment.大家都说那是一次危险的投资。

4 consolidated   

a.联合的

参考例句：

• With this new movie he has consolidated his position as the country's leading director. 他新执导的影片巩固了他作为全国最佳导演的地位。
• Those two banks have consolidated and formed a single large bank. 那两家银行已合并成一家大银行。

5 inputs   

n.输入( input的名词复数 )；投入；输入端；输入的数据v.把…输入电脑( input的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Uncheck the inputs checked for optimization in the previous stage. 不测试那些已经测试过的优化了的以前步骤的inputs.（变量参数）。 来自互联网
• Just in case, save in a file the inputs obtained at the previous stage. 以防万一，保存以前步骤获得的inputs（变量参数值）到一个文件中去。 来自互联网

6 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

7 lawsuits   

n.诉讼( lawsuit的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Lawsuits involving property rights and farming and grazing rights increased markedly. 涉及财产权，耕作与放牧权的诉讼案件显著地增加。 来自辞典例句
• I've lost and won more lawsuits than any man in England. 全英国的人算我官司打得最多，赢的也多，输的也多。 来自辞典例句

8 systematically   

adv.有系统地

参考例句：

• This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。
• The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

9 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

10 variants   

n.变体( variant的名词复数 )；变种；变型；（词等的）变体

参考例句：

• Those variants will be preserved in the'struggle for existence". 这些变异将在“生存竞争”中被保留下来。 来自辞典例句
• Like organisms, viruses have variants, generally called strains. 与其他生物一样，病毒也有变种，一般称之为株系。 来自辞典例句

11 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

12 technocrats   

n.技术专家，专家政治论者( technocrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Few business barons remained. They were replaced by "technocrats," who became the heads of corporations. 企业巨头所剩无几，大多已被“技术专家”所代替，这些人成了公司的领导。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• However, bankers called the technocrats' bluff and proceeded to lend with gusto. 但是，银行家们称技术专家官员不过在虚张声势，并且还会乐观的继续借贷业务。 来自互联网

13 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

14 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

15 semiconductors   

n.半导体( semiconductor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Crystals may be insulators, semiconductors, or conductors. 晶体可以是绝缘体，半导体，或导体。 来自辞典例句
• Semiconductors containing such impurities are called p-type semiconductors. 含有这类杂质的半导体叫做P型半导体。 来自辞典例句