美国国家公共电台 NPR--Federal climate forecasts could help prepare for extreme rain. But it's years away

Federal climate forecasts could help prepare for extreme rain. But it's years away

Transcript¹

Heavy storms have flooded roads and intersections² across California over the last few weeks. The water often isn't coming from overflowing³ rivers. Instead, rainfall is simply overwhelming the infrastructure⁴ that's designed to keep people safe from flooding.

A new federal law could ensure that the country's roads and infrastructure are better able to withstand increasingly destructive storms.

The problem: the help won't be ready in time for the billions of dollars in infrastructure spending currently underway.

As the climate gets hotter, rainfall is getting more intense in many parts of the country. But many cities aren't constructing infrastructure to handle increasing amounts of water, because the rainfall records they use to design it are decades-old in most states.

Those federal records, put out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric⁵ Administration, are only sporadically⁶ updated. That means water systems are still being designed for the climate of the past.

In late December, President Biden signed a bill that would require NOAA to update its extreme rainfall records for the whole country for the first time. It also requires them to forecast how climate change could make rainfall more intense in the future. NOAA is currently doing that national analysis and plans to make it available to cities and states in 2026 and 2027.

Still, by then, the country will have already made the single largest investment in history in water infrastructure. The vast majority of spending from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law will have been distributed, meaning most water projects will still be using old climate data.

"The past is no longer a good predictor of what's coming our way," says Rachel Cleetus, climate policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "We will have many, many people and billions of dollars of infrastructure at risk if we don't do better going forward."

Building new infrastructure for last century's storms

When it comes to water infrastructure needs, Louisville, Kentucky has a long to-do list.

The city's aging water system has been overwhelmed by large storms in the past, causing billions of gallons of sewage to be released into the Ohio River. The Louisville & Jefferson County Metropolitan⁷ Sewer⁸ District is working its way through a $2 billion dollar project list to address the problems, under an agreement with the Environmental Protection Agency.

To fill the funding gap, the utility is tapping into a range of federal sources, including new funds made available by the recent Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the American Rescue Plan Act.

"We don't necessarily think about the structure under our feet that needs to be ready when a storm hits, but because those climate change storms are happening more and more frequently, now is the time to invest to update those systems," says Stephanie Laughlin, infrastructure planning manager at Louisville MSD.

Still, the utility is currently using 62 year-old rainfall records to figure out what kind of storms its stormwater system should be able to handle. It's in the process of updating to NOAA's latest rainfall records for the region, known as Atlas⁹ 14, but even those are still more than 20 years old.

Extreme rainstorms have already gotten more intense in Louisville since 1961, according to a 2017 study done by the utility. The study also showed that the trend will continue, with those storms expected to drop 2-3 more inches of rain per day by 2065 as the climate gets hotter.

Louisville MSD is using that climate change forecasting to help design its major water facilities, like upgrading Paddy's Run, a 70-year old pumping station on the Ohio River that protects 70,000 homes from flooding.

Residents in Merced, California wade¹⁰ across a flooded parking lot in the recent storms.

Andrew Innerarity/California Department of Water Resources

But new investment in the rest of the water system, including the stormwater drains, will continue to use the older rainfall records without climate change projections¹¹. Laughlin says to change that, the utility needs new official rainfall data from NOAA.

"It needs to be at the agency level for us to put into our design guidelines," she says. "That's the next step that will provide that added resilience."

New climate forecasts on the way, but not in time

Water utilities around the country are facing the same challenge. Those that have found resources, like Harris County in Texas, have funded studies to find out what kind of storms are coming their way in the coming decades. Smaller utilities are struggling to find those localized forecasts.

NOAA is now set to provide a national update, after President Biden signed the FLOODS Act in December, and it will be required to revise its rainfall data and projections every 10 years. Previously¹², states had to pay the agency for updated rainfall records. As a result, many states are using 20-year old reports, while the Pacific Northwest only has data from the 1970s.

With new funding, NOAA will also include projections of how climate change could increase precipitation across the country. A hotter atmosphere is able to hold more water vapor¹³, driving more intense rainfall from storms.

"To have those future projections becomes very important, because the stuff that we're designing today, whether it be infrastructure or buildings, they're going to be with us for decades if not over a century, so we need to know what that future condition is to minimize damage and loss," says says Chad Berginnis, executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers.

Given the complexity¹⁴ of adding climate change to their analysis, NOAA officials say the earliest the update can be ready is 2026.

"We're looking for those opportunities to accelerate, but we want to make sure the data and the products are of high quality," says Fernando Salas, director of the Geo-Intelligence Division NOAA's Office of Water Prediction.

Most states are still using outdated¹⁵ rainfall records to design their stormwater infrastructure. In a hotter climate, storms are dropping more intense rainfall.

Kenneth James/California Department of Water Resources

By then, the federal Environmental Protection Agency will have distributed the majority of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding. The agency began giving states $11.7 billion dollars through the Clean Water State Revolving¹⁶ Fund last year, which is expected to be fully¹⁷ delivered by 2026.

"We strongly encourage that these investments should foster resilience to all threats and hazards, both natural and man-made, that they need to support climate adaptation in the water sector," says Radhika Fox, assistant administrator¹⁸ of water at the EPA.

In absence of new federal rainfall data, it will largely be up to cities and states to find ways to plan for climate change. A newly released map from the Department of Defense¹⁹ and NOAA, while not the official records, does show how precipitation will change across the U.S. Climate experts say without building in some leeway to handle bigger storms, communities risk building infrastructure that will be inadequate²⁰ and need expensive updating far sooner than planned for.

"It's been a long time coming and better late than never," Cleetus says. "But what we need to do is make sure that we're mainstreaming it into all our infrastructure decisions from here on out. Otherwise we'll be putting good money after bad."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 intersections   

n.横断( intersection的名词复数 )；交叉；交叉点；交集

参考例句：

• Traffic lights have been placed at all major intersections. 所有重要的交叉路口都安装了交通信号灯。
• Intersections are of the greatest importance in highway design. 在道路设计中，交叉口占有最重要的地位。 来自辞典例句

3 overflowing   

n. 溢出物,溢流 adj. 充沛的，充满的 动词overflow的现在分词形式

参考例句：

• The stands were overflowing with farm and sideline products. 集市上农副产品非常丰富。
• The milk is overflowing. 牛奶溢出来了。

4 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

5 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

6 sporadically   

adv.偶发地，零星地

参考例句：

• There are some trees sporadically around his house. 他的房子周围零星地有点树木。 来自辞典例句
• As for other aspects, we will sporadically hand out questionnaires. 在其他方面，我们会偶尔发送调查问卷。 来自互联网

7 metropolitan   

adj.大城市的，大都会的

参考例句：

• Metropolitan buildings become taller than ever.大城市的建筑变得比以前更高。
• Metropolitan residents are used to fast rhythm.大都市的居民习惯于快节奏。

8 sewer   

n.排水沟，下水道

参考例句：

• They are tearing up the street to repair a sewer. 他们正挖开马路修下水道。
• The boy kicked a stone into the sewer. 那个男孩把一石子踢进了下水道。

9 atlas   

n.地图册，图表集

参考例句：

• He reached down the atlas from the top shelf.他从书架顶层取下地图集。
• The atlas contains forty maps,including three of Great Britain.这本地图集有40幅地图，其中包括3幅英国地图。

10 wade   

v.跋涉，涉水；n.跋涉

参考例句：

• We had to wade through the river to the opposite bank.我们只好涉水过河到对岸。
• We cannot but wade across the river.我们只好趟水过去。

11 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

12 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

13 vapor   

n.蒸汽，雾气

参考例句：

• The cold wind condenses vapor into rain.冷风使水蒸气凝结成雨。
• This new machine sometimes transpires a lot of hot vapor.这部机器有时排出大量的热气。

14 complexity   

n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物

参考例句：

• Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
• The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。

15 outdated   

adj.旧式的，落伍的，过时的；v.使过时

参考例句：

• That list of addresses is outdated,many have changed.那个通讯录已经没用了，许多地址已经改了。
• Many of us conform to the outdated customs laid down by our forebears.我们许多人都遵循祖先立下的过时习俗。

16 revolving   

adj.旋转的，轮转式的；循环的v.（使）旋转( revolve的现在分词 )；细想

参考例句：

• The theatre has a revolving stage. 剧院有一个旋转舞台。
• The company became a revolving-door workplace. 这家公司成了工作的中转站。

17 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

18 administrator   

n.经营管理者，行政官员

参考例句：

• The role of administrator absorbed much of Ben's energy.行政职务耗掉本很多精力。
• He has proved himself capable as administrator.他表现出管理才能。

19 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

20 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。