美国国家公共电台 NPR--For the first time in over 60 years, China's population fell by almost a million

For the first time in over 60 years, China's population fell by almost a million

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Stuart Gietel-Basten, professor of social science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Khalifa University in Dubai, about the decline in China's population.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

China's population is officially shrinking. After years of the population declining, last year, for the first time, hundreds of thousands more people died than were born. To talk about the implications of this for China and the rest of the world, we're joined by Stuart Gietel-Basten. He's a professor of social science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Khalifa University in Dubai, where he is now. Thanks for joining us.

STUART GIETEL-BASTEN: Thank you very much.

FADEL: So let's start with why. Why is China's population shrinking?

GIETEL-BASTEN: So this is primarily a structural² change of low fertility, which has been in place now for 40 - more than 40 years. And, of course, what happens over time is when you have prolonged low fertility rates, that means you have fewer women, fewer girls being born who then grow up to become - you have smaller number of women of childbearing age. So then even when they're - even if the fertility rates stay the same, you end up with a lower number of births.

FADEL: Yeah.

GIETEL-BASTEN: And then, of course, in recent years, COVID has really exacerbated³ this, as it has in countries all over the world because of the kind of economic insecurity, the impact on jobs but then also the challenges of working from home and having a family under these challenging circumstances, which have been particularly difficult in China. So it's really exacerbated and exaggerated this shift in fertility.

FADEL: But what does this mean now for the economy, for the labor⁴ force? China is an economic powerhouse now. It's emerged as the second-largest economy in the last few decades. What does this mean if there's less people to work?

GIETEL-BASTEN: I would say that it's a challenge rather than a crisis in a sense. It's going to require new ways of thinking about this kind of demographic - the new demographic paradigm⁵ - right? - that the era of rapid growth, the double-digit growth, of cheap labor, of a younger labor force - you know, that era is now really at a close. I think that's what today really shows us. And so what China is going to need to do is to respond to this. And in fairness, it has been doing this for some time. You know, this is not a big surprise to the Chinese government. It has pivoted⁶ towards responding to an aging population through increasing investment in health and in poverty to ensure that people age well, developing social work systems of planning to change their pension system and so on and then also have to increase productivity.

Now, that's much easier said than done, of course, but there's really still a lot of levers that can be pulled in China. And I suppose - and the last thing is that China's political system is very different to, you know, the American political system and the British political system in that it can make it easier to make these kind of long-term structural plans and structural changes over the next five, 10 20, 30 years to adapt to this new situation.

FADEL: How will this impact China's economic growth, though?

GIETEL-BASTEN: Well, it's impossible to say. I mean, I think that, as I say, it's - it will depend entirely⁷ on how the government implements⁸ the current five-year plan and then what the next five-year plan looks like. It is harder, without a doubt, to generate the kind of economic growth that it has seen under the current demographic circumstances and the projected demographic circumstances. Is that inevitable⁹ that that means that economic growth will flatline? No, it is not. Is it going to be difficult to readapt, to change, to adapt the economy to try to make the best of this - right? - to try to do more with less, if you will? Well, yes, it is possible.

FADEL: Stuart Gietel-Basten is a professor of social science at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Khalifa University in Dubai, where we reached him. Thank you so much for your time.

GIETEL-BASTEN: Thank you so much.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

3 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

5 paradigm   

n.例子，模范，词形变化表

参考例句：

• He had become the paradigm of the successful man. 他已经成为成功人士的典范。
• Moreover,the results of this research can be the new learning paradigm for digital design studios.除此之外，本研究的研究成果也可以为数位设计课程建立一个新的学习范例。

6 pivoted   

adj.转动的，回转的，装在枢轴上的v.（似）在枢轴上转动( pivot的过去式和过去分词 )；把…放在枢轴上；以…为核心，围绕（主旨）展开

参考例句：

• His old legs and shoulders pivoted with the swinging of the pulling. 他一把把地拉着，两条老迈的腿儿和肩膀跟着转动。 来自英汉文学 - 老人与海
• When air is moving, the metal is pivoted on the hinge. 当空气流动时，金属板在铰链上转动。 来自辞典例句

7 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

8 implements   

n.工具( implement的名词复数 )；家具；手段；[法律]履行（契约等）v.实现( implement的第三人称单数 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• Primitive man hunted wild animals with crude stone implements. 原始社会的人用粗糙的石器猎取野兽。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• They ordered quantities of farm implements. 他们订购了大量农具。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

9 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。