美国国家公共电台 NPR--Tech layoffs are happening in an economy that is stormier than a year ago

Tech layoffs² are happening in an economy that is stormier than a year ago

Transcript³

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Margaret O'Mara, a professor at the University of Washington, about Microsoft's future. She's also the author of The Code, a history of Silicon⁴ Valley.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Margaret O'Mara follows the tech world from her perch⁵ at the University of Washington. She is also the author of "The Code," a history of Silicon Valley, that I've been listening to as an audiobook while I run. So it's great to talk with you directly. Good morning.

MARGARET O'MARA: Thanks so much, Steve.

INSKEEP: Two theories we just heard there - one, that the tech industry sees a recession. The other is that they're just cutting to cut. How do you see it?

O'MARA: Yeah. Yes. And, I mean, the tech industry is part of the broader economy. And the seas are stormier than they were a year ago. We have rising interest rates. Low interest rates fueled a lot of the tech boom of the last 10 years because it put a lot of cash flowing into startups and as well into investment in big companies like Microsoft. And then the pandemic was this, as Bobby mentioned before, an extraordinary couple of years of tech dependence⁶, right? People were working at home and learning at home. And everyone needed the platforms and the software that these large companies provide.

INSKEEP: If you are a tech executive, do you face special pressure because you are not just expected to profit, you are expected to profit ridiculously and grow massively all the time?

O'MARA: Yeah, I think that's right. We've seen this extraordinary run up in growth. You look at the charts of growth in employee headcount and growth in stock price and market capitalization. It just goes up and to the right for the last several years. It's been about a decade of extraordinary scaling up across the industry, not just the really big tech platforms, but everything. So that creates a standard that is - and, you know, tech has always been a very growth-oriented industry from the very beginning, from when they first started making microchips in Silicon Valley more than 50 years ago.

INSKEEP: Yeah. Of course, they always have to worry about disruption. If you're an existing company, you have to worry about who's going to come up behind you or beside you or invent a new product or reinvent the market. Is this a special moment when companies have to worry about disruption? They're struggling with AI, trying to figure out how to profit enough on that. They're worried about stagnant⁷ business models. They're worried about a lot of political pressures, a million things, I can imagine.

O'MARA: A million things. Yeah. You've always got to keep moving forward, something like a shark, right? And that is the great challenge, of course. These are the very, very large companies. They have hundreds of thousands of employees. They have very well-established and very lucrative⁸ businesses. Sometimes it's hard to really step back and invest in the new, new thing when you're making a lot of money with the old thing. This is a perennial⁹ problem in business, a dilemma¹⁰, as they say. And it is a real - you know, I think that all of these companies, Microsoft, Amazon, you see these CEOs, you know, with these cuts. They're cutting some parts and not others. They're trying to figure out, what's the bet that I need to make on the next big thing? How do we catch the wave? And that's critically important.

INSKEEP: Do you feel that you understand the bet that Microsoft is making right now?

O'MARA: Yeah. Well, Microsoft is like a lot of these large companies. Because they're so large, they're doing a lot of things. And they're making money doing a lot of things. But you see sort of choices to cut certain places and not others - cut its HoloLens hardware operation, which does virtual reality headsets, you know, and then in turn, looking more towards AI. They just made this really critical investment in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, which is that bot everyone's been talking about...

INSKEEP: Yeah.

O'MARA: ...That is apparently¹¹ going to write all of my students' research papers from now on.

INSKEEP: (Laughter).

O'MARA: So there's - you know, there are choices that they're making. And they're trying to, again, sort of look into the future and figure out what's going to be the right way to go.

INSKEEP: Do you presume that AI is going to change the world, as well as this industry?

O'MARA: Well, look; AI has already changed the world. And computer scientists have been talking about it changing the world for a very long time. And we've been worrying about our future robot overlords since - gosh, since basically the first digital computer was invented in the 1940s, honestly. But, you know, yes, we're at this kind of critical point where there's so much data, partially¹² because of all the things we all have been doing online and giving these platform companies so much information about us and photographs and things that - now machines have learned a lot. And they are able to do things with more accuracy. But I shall say, to all of my students and any other students out there, it's not quite the same - the chat bot can't write your papers as well as you can.

INSKEEP: (Laughter) Are you sure about that because...

O'MARA: Not quite yet. We're not there yet.

INSKEEP: (Laughter) Well, do you - does a company like Microsoft, which is practically an old-line company at this point, have a chance to get back on top if they were to dominate this new thing?

O'MARA: Well, yeah. Microsoft is really interesting, you know? It has already - it's kind of had this renaissance¹³ in the last decade under Satya Nadella, the current CEO...

INSKEEP: Right.

O'MARA: ...Who, when he came in, made a lot of job cuts. Actually, the last big layoff¹ wave at Microsoft was in 2014. And Microsoft had made some bets, including on the Windows Phone, on mobile phones that - by acquiring Nokia, the phone maker¹⁴, and decided¹⁵ that was not a good bet and moved into other things. So they've had this extraordinary growth spurt¹⁶ working on cloud software and hardware and a lot of things.

INSKEEP: Right.

O'MARA: So you know, don't count Microsoft or any of these companies out.

INSKEEP: Margaret O'Mara at the University of Washington. Thank you so much.

O'MARA: It's a pleasure. Thank you, Steve.

1 layoff   

n.临时解雇，操作停止，活动停止期间，失业期

参考例句：

• Finally, prepare an explanation about what led to your layoff.最后，要准备好一套说辞来解释你被解雇的原因。
• Workers were re-employed after the layoff.在暂时解雇不久后工人们又被再度雇用了。

2 layoffs   

临时解雇( layoff的名词复数 )； 停工，停止活动

参考例句：

• Textile companies announced 2000 fresh layoffs last week. 各纺织公司上周宣布再次裁员两千人。
• Stock prices broke when the firm suddenly announced layoffs. 当公司突然宣布裁员时，股票价格便大跌

3 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

4 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

5 perch   

n.栖木，高位，杆；v.栖息，就位，位于

参考例句：

• The bird took its perch.鸟停歇在栖木上。
• Little birds perch themselves on the branches.小鸟儿栖歇在树枝上。

6 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

7 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

8 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

9 perennial   

adj.终年的；长久的

参考例句：

• I wonder at her perennial youthfulness.我对她青春常驻感到惊讶。
• There's a perennial shortage of teachers with science qualifications.有理科教学资格的老师一直都很短缺。

10 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

11 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

12 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。

13 renaissance   

n.复活，复兴，文艺复兴

参考例句：

• The Renaissance was an epoch of unparalleled cultural achievement.文艺复兴是一个文化上取得空前成就的时代。
• The theme of the conference is renaissance Europe.大会的主题是文艺复兴时期的欧洲。

14 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

15 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

16 spurt   

v.喷出；突然进发；突然兴隆

参考例句：

• He put in a spurt at the beginning of the eighth lap.他进入第八圈时便开始冲刺。
• After a silence, Molly let her anger spurt out.沉默了一会儿，莫莉的怒气便迸发了出来。