美国国家公共电台 NPR--Did the last census overcount Asian Americans? It depends on where you look

Did the last census¹ overcount Asian Americans? It depends on where you look

Transcript²

A new report is complicating³ an unusual finding from the U.S. Census Bureau's own report card on the accuracy of its 2020 head count of the country's population: a national overcount of Asian Americans.

The tallying⁵ of U.S. residents more than once at different addresses drives overcounting in census results, which — despite their flaws — are used to determine political representation, guide federal funding and inform policymaking and research across the United States.

The bureau estimates it had a net overcount rate of 2.62% for Asian Americans in the last census. That marked the first time Asian Americans had a statistically⁷ significant overcount at the national level since the bureau started trying to measure how well it tallied⁸ the country's Asian population, along with other racial groups, more than three decades ago.

But since the bureau announced that overcount estimate for Asian Americans more than a year ago, many census watchers have been warning that it shouldn't be taken just at face value.

Now, new analysis suggests the last census may have actually undercounted, or left out of the tally⁴, Asian Americans in some states, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Wyoming. That's according to a report recently released by Asian Americans Advancing Justice - AAJC, the leading national advocacy group on census participation⁹ among Asian Americans.

Those potential errors, the report adds, may have been canceled out and masked by the overcounting of the Asian populations in states on the East and West Coasts, as well as in the South, resulting in a national net overcount rate for Asian Americans.

"What we long knew and suspected, and what our new report shows, is that that aggregate¹⁰ national number actually hides what's happening for the community," says Terry Ao Minnis, senior director of census and voting programs at Asian Americans Advancing Justice - AAJC. "When you look at lower geographic¹¹ levels, you will see that Asian Americans are actually being missed, as well as being overcounted in different areas."

Focusing on just the national overcount of Asian Americans could feed into the "model minority" myth

The report's findings — which come from comparing calculations based on 2020 census responses and the bureau's annual population estimates — offer a "useful first effort" in better understanding how well Asian Americans were counted, says Bill O'Hare, a demographer¹² and former research fellow at the bureau.

"As we start to think about the 2030 census — and the bureau is already gearing up for that — this kind of information can be helpful in planning more constructive¹³ outreach efforts," O'Hare adds.

The bureau's own report card showed that for the 2020 census, the federal government's largest statistical⁶ agency continued a persistent¹⁴ trend of undercounting Black people, Latinos and Native Americans, while overcounting people who identified as white and not Latino. For Pacific Islanders, the bureau also found a national net overcount rate, but it was within the margin¹⁵ of error.

But the bureau did not break down over- or undercount rates by race below the national level. The agency has blamed the small sample size of its follow-up survey, which was also disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Still, the report by Asian Americans Advancing Justice - AAJC tried to drill down on the quality of the census and found signs of potential county-level undercounting of Asian Americans in rural parts of the Midwest, Mountain West and South.

These kinds of nuances at the local level should not be ignored, warns Paul Ong, an economist¹⁶ who heads the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and has served as an adviser¹⁷ to the bureau.

Whenever any group is undercounted, the communities where they live face the risk of losing representation in government and missing out on their fair share of the estimated $1.5 trillion a year in federal funding for health care, education, transportation and other public services.

"For the general public, there is this narrative¹⁸ that could formulate¹⁹" around the national overcount of Asian Americans, Ong adds. "It goes along probably with the 'model minority' narrative that somehow there is some statistical result that says that there are no problems among Asian Americans and therefore we don't need to pay attention to them."

More attention is needed, Ong says, because of the diversity among the subgroups that make up the country's Asian American population. Differences in housing arrangements, income level, languages spoken at home and U.S. citizenship²⁰ status, for example, can contribute to varying levels of census participation among Asian Americans, and they can be difficult to see in national aggregate numbers.

Did college students and anti-Asian racism²¹ contribute to a national overcount?

Ong offers two theories that he says could use further research: Were confusion over where to count college students and the rise of anti-Asian racism in the early months of the pandemic factors that led to the overcounting of Asian Americans at the national level?

In 2020, the onset²² of the pandemic forced many college students to flee their campuses just as nationwide counting for that census kicked off. And many Asian American students, who have the highest college enrollment²³ rate of all racial and ethnic²⁴ groups, may have been counted twice — both at their family home and at their campus residence, which was the address where they should have been counted, according to the bureau's residence criteria²⁵.

The pandemic also brought on more anti-Asian rhetoric²⁶, which Ong says may have spurred more people of Asian descent who previously²⁷ did not check a box for an Asian category when answering the census race question to do so in 2020.

"Quite often what happens with people of color is that when they're attacked, they begin embracing their minority identity," Ong says. "So what the Census Bureau picked up as an overcount potentially of Asian Americans may be actually driven by shifts in the way people are defining themselves."

Disaggregated data about Asian Americans could provide a clearer picture

For Diya Basu-Sen — executive director of Sapna NYC, a Bronx-based community organization that supports low-income, South Asian immigrant women — any overcount of Asian Americans offers some relief after worries that COVID lockdowns and other restrictions²⁸ that put an end to in-person census events and other outreach would lead to undercounting.

"It means that we were able to reach people in a pandemic where our communities were hit really hard and still people were completing the census, so I think that's a success," Basu-Sen says.

Asian Americans were likely overcounted in New York City, the Asian Americans Advancing Justice - AAJC report estimates. But it remains²⁹ unclear how well the census tallied the city's Asian subgroups, such as Bangladeshi Americans, Chinese Americans, and Indian Americans.

"When we talk about Asians, we talk about a monolith. And most often, unless you disaggregate that data, it really doesn't show the true picture," Basu-Sen says. "I'm sure if you look at more specific data, there are probably still communities that were undercounted or counted correctly."

1 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 complicating   

使复杂化( complicate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。
• In America these actions become executive puberty rites, complicating relationships that are already complicated enough. 在美国，这些行动成了行政青春期的惯例，使本来已经够复杂的关系变得更复杂了。

4 tally   

n.计数器，记分，一致，测量；vt.计算，记录，使一致；vi.计算，记分，一致

参考例句：

• Don't forget to keep a careful tally of what you spend.别忘了仔细记下你的开支账目。
• The facts mentioned in the report tally to every detail.报告中所提到的事实都丝毫不差。

5 tallying   

v.计算，清点( tally的现在分词 )；加标签（或标记）于；（使）符合；（使）吻合

参考例句：

• In 2007 the state set a U.S. record, tallying 141 twisters. 该州在2007年以总计出现了141个龙卷风而创下了一个美国记录。 来自互联网
• We charge extra fee at 100% of the rates of tallying fees. 我们按理货收费率的100%收取附加费。 来自互联网

6 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

7 statistically   

ad.根据统计数据来看，从统计学的观点来看

参考例句：

• The sample of building permits is larger and therefore, statistically satisfying. 建筑许可数的样本比较大，所以统计数据更令人满意。
• The results of each test would have to be statistically independent. 每次试验的结果在统计上必须是独立的。

8 tallied   

v.计算，清点( tally的过去式和过去分词 )；加标签（或标记）于；（使）符合；（使）吻合

参考例句：

• The girl tallied them with her eyes for a moment. 新娘用目光把这些化妆品清点了一下。 来自教父部分
• His account of the accident tallied with hers. 他对事故的陈述和她的相吻合。 来自辞典例句

9 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

10 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

11 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

12 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

13 constructive   

adj.建设的，建设性的

参考例句：

• We welcome constructive criticism.我们乐意接受有建设性的批评。
• He is beginning to deal with his anger in a constructive way.他开始用建设性的方法处理自己的怒气。

14 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

15 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

16 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

17 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

18 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

19 formulate   

v.用公式表示；规划；设计；系统地阐述

参考例句：

• He took care to formulate his reply very clearly.他字斟句酌，清楚地做了回答。
• I was impressed by the way he could formulate his ideas.他陈述观点的方式让我印象深刻。

20 citizenship   

n.市民权，公民权，国民的义务(身份)

参考例句：

• He was born in Sweden,but he doesn't have Swedish citizenship.他在瑞典出生，但没有瑞典公民身分。
• Ten years later,she chose to take Australian citizenship.十年后，她选择了澳大利亚国籍。

21 racism   

n.民族主义；种族歧视(意识)

参考例句：

• He said that racism is endemic in this country.他说种族主义在该国很普遍。
• Racism causes political instability and violence.种族主义道致政治动荡和暴力事件。

22 onset   

n.进攻，袭击，开始，突然开始

参考例句：

• The drug must be taken from the onset of the infection.这种药必须在感染的最初期就开始服用。
• Our troops withstood the onset of the enemy.我们的部队抵挡住了敌人的进攻。

23 enrollment   

n.注册或登记的人数；登记

参考例句：

• You will be given a reading list at enrollment.注册时你会收到一份阅读书目。
• I just got the enrollment notice from Fudan University.我刚刚接到复旦大学的入学通知书。

24 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

25 criteria   

n.标准

参考例句：

• The main criterion is value for money.主要的标准是钱要用得划算。
• There are strict criteria for inclusion in the competition.参赛的标准很严格。

26 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

27 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

28 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

29 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。