美国国家公共电台 NPR--Of bank runs & animal spirits: the force inside us that keeps regulators up at night

Of bank runs & animal spirits: the force inside us that keeps regulators up at night

Transcript¹

In the last few weeks, we've seen something we hadn't seen in decades: bank runs. A look at what causes them and why it worries economists³ (and bankers) so much

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

The International Monetary⁴ Fund released its economic forecast for this year, and it was a little bleak⁵. The IMF predicts very slow growth for most countries. Here in the U.S., one of the big things holding the economy back? Volatility⁶ in the banking⁷ sector⁸ - in other words, the bank runs we saw last month. But what exactly causes a bank run? Here's NPR's Stacey Vanek Smith.

STACEY VANEK SMITH, BYLINE⁹: A few weeks ago, Ben Sand was at his home in Sydney, Australia, when he got a bad feeling. Sand is the CEO of Strong Compute¹⁰, a medical imaging startup. His company kept its money at Silicon¹¹ Valley Bank. He'd been reading about the bank's struggles, but he wasn't that worried.

BEN SAND: I was thinking, oh, it's SVB. Like, you know, how bad can it be?

VANEK SMITH: The decades-old multibillion-dollar bank had always been great to work with, but then a few things happened.

SAND: Suddenly, sort of everything stopped working. International wires were not available. Exactly how to move money was not clear. We'd heard stories of people sending wires to other bank accounts and those bank accounts rejecting those wires, but their SVB account showing the wires had gone through, and the money was somewhere.

VANEK SMITH: Sand called his team.

SAND: We, you know, rather quickly made that assessment¹² that it looked quite bad, and so we took action.

VANEK SMITH: Took action, as in got on a plane that night and flew from Sydney to San Francisco, a 19-hour trip, then immediately jumped into a car and drove straight to Silicon Valley Bank's headquarters in Santa Clara.

SAND: And then we went and waited outside the bank.

VANEK SMITH: What time did you get to the bank?

SAND: Two in the morning.

VANEK SMITH: Other people showed up. A big line formed of worried-looking customers anxious to pull their money out. Sand says he does not panic easily, but almost all of his company's money was in that bank, including its operating budget, payroll¹³.

SAND: You start sort of doing a lot of math in your head.

VANEK SMITH: As dawn broke, official-looking people showed up. They were from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation - government regulators that insure banks. They told the crowd there was nothing to worry about. Their money was safe. And they handed out snacks.

SAND: The FDIC came out and gave us doughnuts, and I said, should I read anything into the shape of this doughnut and what's happening with our money? (Laughter).

VANEK SMITH: That feeling in the pit of your stomach that something is wrong, that moves you to book a flight to another country or stand in line all night, we might call it a gut¹⁴ feeling or Spidey sense or blind panic. Economists call it animal spirits.

BEN HO: Emotions that cause people to sort of suddenly shift from one pattern of behavior to another pattern of behavior.

VANEK SMITH: Ben Ho is an economist² at Vassar. He's author of the book "Why Trust Matters." He says animal spirits are the emotions that override¹⁵ rational thought and cause people to behave in unpredictable, often extreme, ways. Ho says animal spirits are released when trust is broken - in the case of Silicon Valley Bank, the trust that underpins¹⁶ our banking system, our entire economy.

HO: I think of human history as, like, thousands of years of how we've learned to trust each other in ever-greater ways.

VANEK SMITH: Ho says that ability to trust institutions, markets, banks, it's made us all infinitely¹⁷ wealthier. It has vastly increased our quality of life. But when that trust fails, animal spirits take over. Like in March of 2020, when investors¹⁸ sold off massive amounts of stock and markets lost a third of their value in one month, that was animal spirits. People getting into frantic¹⁹ multimillion-dollar bidding wars over NFTs when they weren't even sure what they were, that was animal spirits. People panic-buying armfuls of toilet paper - animal spirits.

HO: What we don't know is what causes that switch to flip²⁰.

VANEK SMITH: After waiting outside of Silicon Valley Bank all night, Ben Sand finally got in front of a teller²¹ and managed to get a cashier's check for almost the entire amount in his account. But his faith was deeply shaken at that point. Everything seemed suspect.

SAND: The question here of what is a cashier's check? Is it actually cash? That's what people say. But like, no, this thing is literally²² money. I feel like I could have printed this on my own printer. Like, well, is a check instructions to move money or is it the actual money?

VANEK SMITH: Sands (ph) eventually got that money into a larger bank that seemed safer.

SAND: I think everyone's got their antennas²³ up for exactly what's happening with the global banking system and how this is all going to turn out.

VANEK SMITH: Across the U.S., people have pulled hundreds of billions of dollars out of small banks in just the last few weeks. Economist Ben Ho says this is why governments have been so quick to bail²⁴ out faltering²⁵ banks. They're trying to calm the animal spirits. And it has worked. Of course, that could change. It's estimated nearly 200 U.S. banks are financially vulnerable right now.

Stacey Vanek Smith, NPR News.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

6 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

10 compute   

v./n.计算，估计

参考例句：

• I compute my losses at 500 dollars.我估计我的损失有五百元。
• The losses caused by the floods were beyond compute.洪水造成的损失难以估量。

11 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

12 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

13 payroll   

n.工资表，在职人员名单，工薪总额

参考例句：

• His yearly payroll is $1.2 million.他的年薪是120万美元。
• I can't wait to get my payroll check.我真等不及拿到我的工资单了。

14 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。

15 override   

vt.不顾，不理睬，否决；压倒，优先于

参考例句：

• The welfare of a child should always override the wishes of its parents.孩子的幸福安康应该永远比父母的愿望来得更重要。
• I'm applying in advance for the authority to override him.我提前申请当局对他进行否决。

16 underpins   

n.基础材料( underpin的名词复数 )；基础结构；（学说、理论等的）基础；（人的）腿v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑（墙等）( underpin的第三人称单数 )；加固（墙等）的基础；为（论据、主张等）打下基础；加强

参考例句：

• A powerful sense of mission underpins everything he does. 一种强烈的使命感支撑他所做的一切。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His presence at the crime underpins the case against him. 案子发生时他在场对他更不利。 来自辞典例句

17 infinitely   

adv.无限地，无穷地

参考例句：

• There is an infinitely bright future ahead of us.我们有无限光明的前途。
• The universe is infinitely large.宇宙是无限大的。

18 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

19 frantic   

adj.狂乱的，错乱的，激昂的

参考例句：

• I've had a frantic rush to get my work done.我急急忙忙地赶完工作。
• He made frantic dash for the departing train.他发疯似地冲向正开出的火车。

20 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。

21 teller   

n.银行出纳员；(选举)计票员

参考例句：

• The bank started her as a teller.银行起用她当出纳员。
• The teller tried to remain aloof and calm.出纳员力图保持冷漠和镇静。

22 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。

23 antennas   

[生] 触角，触须（antenna的复数形式）

参考例句：

• Marconi tied several antennas to kites. 马可尼在风筝上系了几根天线。 来自超越目标英语 第3册
• Radio astronomy today is armed with the largest antennas in the world. 射电天文学拥有世界上最大的天线。

24 bail   

v.舀（水），保释；n.保证金，保释，保释人

参考例句：

• One of the prisoner's friends offered to bail him out.犯人的一个朋友答应保释他出来。
• She has been granted conditional bail.她被准予有条件保释。

25 faltering   

犹豫的，支吾的，蹒跚的

参考例句：

• The economy shows no signs of faltering. 经济没有衰退的迹象。
• I canfeel my legs faltering. 我感到我的腿在颤抖。