经济学人203:棉花出口 印度颁布棉花禁令

 　　Business

　　商业报道

　　Cotton exports

　　棉花出口

　　Knickers in a twist

　　印度颁布棉花禁令，世界市场反应强烈

　　India bans cotton exports—confusing everyone, including its government.

　　印度禁止棉花出口，让所有人都很迷惑，政府自己也很不解。

　　WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised his desire for national self-sufficiency.

　　1918年甘地亲自用印度的棉花纺织时，这代表着他渴望国家自给自足的心愿。

　　Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt.

　　他认为出口给日本英国纺织品中太多都是通过不平等的条款出口的。

　　Almost a century on, India's cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains.

　　近一个世纪以来，印度的棉花产业依然是处在世界产业链中。

　　Thus a decision on March 5th by the country's commerce ministry¹ to ban exports sent markets around the world into a tizz.

　　因此三月五日印度商务部禁止棉花出口的决定让世界市场都迷惑不已。

　　Derivative² prices leapt on New York's trading floors.

　　纽约证券交易市场的相关金融衍生产品价格飞涨。

　　Panicky Y-front makers³ the world over worried if their contracts were void.

　　全球Y型内裤制造商陷入恐慌，担心自己的条约无效。

　　Excited stockbrokers⁴ in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms.

　　泰国的股票经纪人十分兴奋，告诉客户们购买涤纶厂商的股票。

　　India, after all, is the world's second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.

　　不管怎么说，印度都是仅次于美国的第二大的棉花出口商。

　　The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitments were more than India could comfortably meet.

　　商务部似乎在担心短期出口承诺难以兑现，

　　It feared a spike⁵ in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding⁶.

　　害怕国内棉花因囤积居奇而价格飙升。

　　This would hurt India's textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in the best financial health and is a huge employer.

　　这样会损害以棉花为原材料的纺织业，而纺织业财政状况不佳且提供大量就业。

　　India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.

　　2010年印度因为类似原因暂时停止棉花出口。

　　And there is a troubling backdrop, too.

　　这一政策的出台也有难言的苦衷。

　　The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, with supply blips in some countries and high demand pushing global prices last year to their highest since the American civil war.

　　2011年国际棉花市场如同疯了一般，去年一些国家的产量下降，而高需求等因素将全球价格推到了美国内战后的最高点。

　　After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profit warnings and saw their shares whacked⁷.

　　原材料价格经过多年下滑后，诸如盖普一类的服装公司宣布利润预警，并且眼看着股价疲软。

　　The agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caught with their trousers down and lost money.

　　两大贸易公司嘉能可和来宝集团的农业分部也因此名利俱损。

　　Prices have collapsed⁸ since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery⁹.

　　2011年六月份以来棉花价格崩溃，但是之后的价格过山车之后，每个人仍然都紧张不安。

　　China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makers from shocks.

　　中国囤积了大量棉花，可能会使织物生产商免于市场震荡。

　　India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safety buffer¹⁰ for the Middle Kingdom. Hence the ban.

　　反过来，印度可能正担心棉花产量会走向下滑，而为天朝创造一个缓冲区。因此禁止棉花出口。

　　A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in the medium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore.

　　中期来说任何商品不论是棉花，洋葱还是铁矿石陷入价格飞涨，囤积居奇，禁止出口的恶性循环都不可行。

　　It erodes¹¹ confidence in supply chains and may dent¹² overall production.

　　这会侵蚀供应链各环节的信心，也可能会阻碍总体产量。

　　Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos¹³ if everyone copies it.

　　个人合理的行为，若是每个人都照样做就会造成混乱。

　　No one expects a nation to act for the common good,

　　没有人会期望一个国家会为共同的利益着想，

　　but it seems doubtful that India's ban is even in its own narrow interests.

　　但是似乎印度禁止出口仅仅出于自身狭窄利益是值得怀疑的。

　　Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff.

　　试图保持低价有利于纺织品生产商却不利于棉农。

　　India's agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban.

　　印度的农业部长说并没有人向他咨询过这项禁令的后果。

　　Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer.

　　印度西部古吉拉特邦首席部长莫迪写信给总理辛格，说这项禁令伤农。

　　Mr Singh has promised an immediate¹⁴ review.

　　辛格承诺立刻修订。

　　That seems likely to repeal¹⁵ the ban.

　　这似乎有可能会废除这条禁令。

　　But there may be damage to India's reputation as a reliable supplier.

　　但是这有可能伤害印度作为一个可靠供应商的信誉。

　　As the news of the ban came out Australia's agriculture minister had just launched a report predicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2013.

　　当禁令的消息爆出时，澳大利亚农业部长发布一份报告预测澳大利亚将在2012-2013年度将棉花出口加倍。

　　His view on India's ban?

　　他对于印度禁令的看法是什么？

　　It's an opportunity.

　　这是一个机会。

1 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

2 derivative   

n.派(衍)生物；adj.非独创性的，模仿他人的

参考例句：

• His paintings are really quite derivative.他的画实在没有创意。
• Derivative works are far more complicated.派生作品更加复杂。

3 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 stockbrokers   

n.股票经纪人( stockbroker的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Stockbrokers never more than now lack enthusiasm for the small client. 证券经济人在面对那些小客户时从未像现在这样缺乏激情。 来自互联网
• Today, I have expensive attorneys, accountants, real estate brokers and stockbrokers. 今天，我雇有身价昂贵的律师、会计师、房地产经纪人以及股票经纪人。 来自互联网

5 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

6 hoarding   

n.贮藏；积蓄；临时围墙；囤积v.积蓄并储藏（某物）( hoard的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• After the war, they were shot for hoarding. 战后他们因囤积而被枪决。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Actually he had two unused ones which he was hoarding up. 其实他还藏了两片没有用呢。 来自英汉文学

7 whacked   

a.精疲力尽的

参考例句：

• She whacked him with her handbag. 她用手提包狠狠地打他。
• He whacked me on the back and I held both his arms. 他用力拍拍我的背，我抱住他的双臂。

8 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

9 jittery   

adj. 神经过敏的, 战战兢兢的

参考例句：

• However, nothing happened though he continued to feel jittery. 可是，自从拉上这辆车，并没有出什么错儿，虽然他心中嘀嘀咕咕的不安。 来自汉英文学 - 骆驼祥子
• The thirty-six Enterprise divebombers were being squandered in a jittery shot from the hip. 这三十六架“企业号”上的俯冲轰炸机正被孤注一掷。

10 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

11 erodes   

侵蚀，腐蚀( erode的第三人称单数 )； 逐渐毁坏，削弱，损害

参考例句：

• The sea erodes the rock. 海水侵蚀岩石。
• The sea erodes the land. 海洋侵蚀陆地。

12 dent   

n.凹痕，凹坑；初步进展

参考例句：

• I don't know how it came about but I've got a dent in the rear of my car.我不知道是怎么回事，但我的汽车后部有了一个凹痕。
• That dent is not big enough to be worth hammering out.那个凹陷不大，用不着把它锤平。

13 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

14 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

15 repeal   

n.废止，撤消；v.废止，撤消

参考例句：

• He plans to repeal a number of current policies.他计划废除一些当前的政策。
• He has made out a strong case for the repeal of the law.他提出强有力的理由，赞成废除该法令。