经济学人249:全球房价 喜忧掺杂

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
Global house prices
全球房价
Mixed messages
喜忧掺杂
America surges, much of Europe sinks
美国突破，欧洲大部分沦陷
HOUSING markets are prone¹ to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting then undershooting sustainable levels.
房屋市场倾向于陷入价格怪圈，房价急速上升然后跌至谷底。
To work out whether they are over- or undervalued,The Economist² uses two gauges³.
为了解决房价与价值不符这一问题，经济学人用了2种计量方式。
One assesses affordability⁴ by comparing prices with disposable income.
一种可行的方式是比较可支配收入与房价水平。
The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents.
另一种定价方法考虑到了租金与房价的关系。
2_副本.jpgIf these ratios are higher than their historical averages property is overvalued; if they are lower it is undervalued.
如果这些比率高于历史平均那么房价就过高，反之则过低。
On this basis, Canada’s house prices are bubbly whereas Japan’s are undeservedly flat.
通过这一方法可以看出，加拿大出现房产泡沫，而日本的房价则奇怪地维持着平稳。
America’s formerly⁵ stricken market has rebounded⁶: house prices have risen by 12.1% over the past year.
而之前美国低迷的市场也有了回暖，房屋价格较前一年上升了12.1%。
But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervalued against income.
但是这回暖仅仅是“似乎”，事实上根据收入水平，房价应更高。
A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reserve will shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom.
五月份以来，抵押率迅速上升，这标志着美联储将会立刻放缓资产购买的步伐。或许无论如何都要促使市场繁荣。
Britain’s recovery is built on shakier foundations.
英国市场的恢复建立在极不稳固的基础上。
House-price growth has picked up in recent months to 3.9% and is likely to accelerate further, even though valuations are still overstretched.
最近几月，房价上升3.9%，而且看上去这一上涨势头在未来会更加猛烈，尽管股价仍旧过高。
The market is being buoyed⁷ through a subsidy⁸ scheme that lowers funding costs for mortgage lenders and through special help for low-deposit borrowers.
房屋市场的好转由补贴政策支撑着。该政策为抵押放贷者降低融资成本，并且通过特殊方法帮助低收入借款人。
Despite favourable⁹ valuations, Japanese house prices continue to fall, though at a modest 2.2%.
尽管房价处于较好的数值区间，日本房价也在持续下落，最新数据显示已下降了2.2%。
The worst-performing markets are in the euro area, notably¹⁰ in southern Europe but also in some northern countries.
欧洲市场表现最差尤其是南欧和部分北欧国家同时，
The French market is also depressed¹¹.
法国市场也令人失望。
Valuations remain stretched in Spain even though house prices have fallen by 30% since early 2008.
尽管从2008年以来西班牙房价已下跌了30%，但其定价仍旧过高。
But the recent pick-up in the Irish market looks sustainable following a 49% price crash.
最近数据显示，在暴跌了49%以后，爱尔兰的房屋市场还能够可持续发展。
Brighter signs gleam elsewhere, especially in Germany, which avoided the pre-crisis frenzy¹².
关于房市的好消息在其他地方有些许听闻，特别是德国。这个国家避开了之前的危机。
Prices there have risen in the past year by 5.1%, which should bolster¹³ domestic demand and help support the economic recovery in the euro zone.
在过去的一年里价格上涨5.1%，这能扩大国内需求并有利于欧洲地区经济恢复。
1.disposable income n.可支配收入，税后所得
Steady growth in disposable income is far from assured.
可支配收入很难说一定会稳定增长。
But the macroeconomic downside has been less disposable income.
但在宏观经济层面上，居民可支配收入却有所下降。
2.built on添建
But its wealth built on the backs of slaves.
但这笔财富却是建立在奴隶的血汗之上的。
Built on a swamp, lagos is fighting for survival.
拉格斯建在沼泽之上，它是在努力存活下来。
3.pick up 捡起；得到；学会
Yet occupancy and rental¹⁴ rates have started to pick up for prime properties.
不过，高档商业地产的入住率和租金水平都已开始回升。
But global investment started to pick up in 2003 as asian countries ploughed more money into infrastructure¹⁵.
但由于亚洲各国将更多资金投入基建，全球投资在2003年又开始有所回升。

1 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 gauges   

n.规格( gauge的名词复数 )；厚度；宽度；标准尺寸v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的第三人称单数 )；估计；计量；划分

参考例句：

• A thermometer gauges the temperature. 温度计可测量温度。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The fuel gauges dropped swiftly. 燃料表指针迅速下降。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

5 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

6 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

7 buoyed   

v.使浮起( buoy的过去式和过去分词 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神

参考例句：

• Buoyed by their win yesterday the team feel confident of further success. 在昨天胜利的鼓舞下，该队有信心再次获胜。
• His encouragement buoyed her up during that difficult period. 他的鼓励使她在那段困难时期恢复了乐观的情绪。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 subsidy   

n.补助金，津贴

参考例句：

• The university will receive a subsidy for research in artificial intelligence.那个大学将得到一笔人工智能研究的补助费。
• The living subsidy for senior expert's family is included in the remuneration.报酬已包含高级专家家人的生活补贴。

9 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

10 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

11 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

12 frenzy   

n.疯狂，狂热，极度的激动

参考例句：

• He was able to work the young students up into a frenzy.他能激起青年学生的狂热。
• They were singing in a frenzy of joy.他们欣喜若狂地高声歌唱。

13 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

14 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

15 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。