经济学人347:中国货币 只有一条路可走

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
China's currency
中国货币
One way no more
只有一条路可走
Why China's central bank is weakening its currency
为什么中国的中央银行正在弱化它的货币
CHINA'S currency has long been a source of controversy¹, especially among American politicians outraged² by its cheapness.
中国的货币长久以来就是争议之源，尤其是因其廉价而饱受美国政客的指责。
But it is rarely a source of uncertainty³.
但是它却不是不稳定的源泉。
Critics have argued fiercely about what it should be worth.
批评家就其实际价值争论了很久，
But as to what it would be worth, China's authorities have left little room for disagreement.
但是事关未来中国货币价值，中国政府不容置喙。在中国历史上的大多数时间，其货币紧紧与美元挂钩。
For much of its history it has been pegged⁴ tightly to the dollar. More recently it has floated within a narrow band.
近来，中国汇率在一个很小的范围波动。
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Most people have assumed it would float upwards⁵.
大多数人，认为其将会向上浮动。
In recent days, however, China's authorities have tested that assumption.
而近日，中国官方欣慰证实了这一猜想，
At a two-day meeting ending on February 18th, the central bank decided⁶ to weaken the yuan, according to the Wall Street Journal.
据《华尔街日报》消息，为期两天并于2月18号结束的会议，在其召开之后，
It has lowered its benchmark by a smidgen at a time for several days.
中央银行决定贬抑人民币。它略微降低了其基准几天的时间。
The currency has also fallen from the strong side of its band to the weak side.
货币也已经从强势的一端，降到弱势的一端了。
In the space of a few days, it lost about 1% of its value.
几天的时间，就已经贬值了1%。
On February 26th China's foreign-exchange regulator said that China's ongoing⁷ exchange-rate reforms meant that two-way fluctuations⁸… will become the norm.
2月26日，中国外汇管理局称中国正在进行汇率改革，这意味着双向波动会成为规范
For the past year, a different norm has applied⁹:
在过去的几年，一个不同的标准已被采用：
the fluctuations have been mostly one way.
波动可能只因为一种方式。
China enjoys a sizeable current-account surplus and it still attracts more foreign-direct investment than it provides.
中国拥有相当数量的经常项目盈余，并且它仍然吸引这比其投资量更多的国外直接投资。
Other kinds of capital flows are more volatile¹⁰. But in the last quarter of 2013, a net $22 billion of hot money flowed inwards.
其他形式的资本流动愈发不稳定。当时2013年第四季度，净值220亿美元的热钱流入国内。
Much of this qualifies as a carry trade: speculators have borrowed cheaply in dollars, then lent in yuan, eluding¹¹ China's capital controls in the hope of benefiting both from higher Chinese interest rates and the yuan's appreciation¹².
许多被认为是一种套息交易:投机者廉价借入美元,然后借给人民币,避过了中国的资本管制,以期从更高的中国利率和人民币升值中获利。
All of this has put upward pressure on the currency, fulfilling the carry-traders' designs and inspiring others to emulate¹³ them.
套息交易者计划的实行以及激励别人效仿其行为，所有的这些都增加了货币升值的压力，
Despite the central bank's heavy purchases of foreign exchange, the yuan rose by 2.8% against the dollar in the year to January, even as the currencies of other emerging markets plummeted¹⁴.
尽管央行大量购进美元，截至今年1月，即使是在其他新兴市场猛跌的情况下，人民币相对于美元升值了2.8%。
The resulting loss of competitiveness is best illustrated¹⁵ by an index calculated by the Hong Kong Monetary¹⁶ Authority, which compares China's currency with those of other emerging economies that compete with it in third markets.
由香港金融管理局的通过比较中国与其他新兴经济体的货币在第三市场的竞争计算出来的指数，最好地说明了人民币升值导致竞争力下降的情况。
This index shows the yuan rising by over 13% in the year to January and by almost 2.6% in January alone.
这个指数显示了人民币截至到今年一月份上涨了13%，光一月份就上涨了几乎2.6%。
China's authorities did not say they had stepped in to sap the yuan.
中国政府未曾说过其介入贬抑人民币。
But their intervention¹⁷ left fingerprints¹⁸ all over the money markets.
但是它们干涉的痕迹遍布整个货币市场。
In buying dollars to weaken the currency, the monetary authorities put additional yuan into circulation.
通过购买美元来使本币贬值，金融当局投放额外的人民币用于流通。
The central bank withdrew a fraction of this extra money by selling securities to the banks.
中央银行通过向银行发售有价证券来收回一小部分额外的钱。
But the banks were still left with extra yuan, which they tried to lend to each other.
但是银行手头仍然有很多多出来的钱，他们试图将之借给对方，
This pushed down interbank interest rates, despite the central bank's withdrawals¹⁹.
这降低了银行内部利率。
As Yao Wei of Societe Generale points out, No factors other than foreign-exchange intervention seems able to explain that.
法国兴业银行的Yao Wei 指出似乎除了外汇干预，没有更好的原因能解释这一现象了。
Will the yuan's slide persist?
人民币会持续贬值吗？
In its statement, the foreign-exchange regulator pointed²⁰ out that export earnings²¹ and foreign-direct investment remain strong.
外汇管理局在其陈述中指出：对外贸易顺差以及国外直接投资势头依旧强劲。
These fundamentals both suggest the yuan should rise again.
这两个基础因素显示了人民币应该再次升值。
But by wrongfooting the speculators, the authorities hope that the expectation of appreciation will not remain a cause of that appreciation.
但是通过打乱投机者的步伐，当局期望对升值的预期不会继续成为导致升值的因素。
At the meeting in which it decided to cheapen its currency, the central bank also decided to enlarge the yuan's trading band later this year, according to a statement cited by theJournal.
根据《华尔街日报》上的描述，在做出贬抑人民币决定的会议上，中央银行也决定扩大人民币交易的范围。
A more flexible yuan would give the central bank a freer hand in setting monetary policy, even as it gradually permits larger cross-border flows of capital.
一个更加有弹性的人民币将会给中央银行在制定货币政策时带来更大的便利，甚至它会逐渐允许更大规模的跨境资本流动。
Despite its cruelty to carry traders, the central bank seems to be keen to open the door to foreign capital a little wider, as long as foreigners do not try to barge²² their way in. That will make China's currency a source of less controversy but a good deal more uncertainty.
尽管其对于套息交易者十分严厉，但是只要外国人不试图用粗鲁的方式闯入中国市场，中央银行似乎乐意对国外资本适度放宽限制。这将减少中国通货的争议性，但是却增加了不稳定性。
1.a source of 来源
Sex outstrips²³ even excretion as a source of euphemism²⁴.
性问题以及与其相关的东西都成为了委婉语的来源。
Eventually, fragmenting politics may become a source of hope.
最终，政治分崩离析或许会成为希望的源泉。
2.decide to 决定
Why did you decide to talk about it?
那你为什么还决定把这件事说出来？
When you decide to improve your life, you really do.
当你决定去改变你的生活，你真的做了。
3.fall from 落下；跌落；降落
Could a hamster survive a fall from an aeroplane?
仓鼠从飞机上掉下来还能活吗？
Last month, the ice cream giant ben& jerry's seemingly took a fall from grace.
就在上月，冰激凌巨头本杰瑞好像从华美的舞台上摔了一跤。
4.inspire to 启发
To speak up and out against sinful living to inspire to righteous living.
大声并大胆地向犯罪生活唱反调，并激发公义正直的生活。
Hang out with people who inspire you to take action.
经常与那些能够激励你采取行动的人在一起。

1 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

2 outraged   

a.震惊的，义愤填膺的

参考例句：

• Members of Parliament were outraged by the news of the assassination. 议会议员们被这暗杀的消息激怒了。
• He was outraged by their behavior. 他们的行为使他感到愤慨。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 pegged   

v.用夹子或钉子固定( peg的过去式和过去分词 )；使固定在某水平

参考例句：

• They pegged their tent down. 他们钉好了账篷。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She pegged down the stairs. 她急忙下楼。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

5 upwards   

adv.向上，在更高处...以上

参考例句：

• The trend of prices is still upwards.物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
• The smoke rose straight upwards.烟一直向上升。

6 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

7 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

8 fluctuations   

波动，涨落，起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。

9 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

10 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

11 eluding   

v.（尤指机敏地）避开( elude的现在分词 )；逃避；躲避；使达不到

参考例句：

• He saw no way of eluding Featherstone's stupid demand. 费瑟斯通的愚蠢要求使他走投无路。 来自辞典例句
• The fox succeeded in eluding the hunters. 这狐狸成功地避过了猎手。 来自辞典例句

12 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

13 emulate   

v.努力赶上或超越，与…竞争；效仿

参考例句：

• You must work hard to emulate your sister.你必须努力工作，赶上你姐姐。
• You must look at the film and try to emulate his behavior.你们必须观看这部电影，并尽力模仿他的动作。

14 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 illustrated   

adj. 有插图的，列举的 动词illustrate的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• His lecture was illustrated with slides taken during the expedition. 他在讲演中使用了探险时拍摄到的幻灯片。
• The manufacturing Methods: Will be illustrated in the next chapter. 制作方法将在下一章说明。

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

18 fingerprints   

n.指纹( fingerprint的名词复数 )v.指纹( fingerprint的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Everyone's fingerprints are unique. 每个人的指纹都是独一无二的。
• They wore gloves so as not to leave any fingerprints behind (them). 他们戴着手套，以免留下指纹。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 withdrawals   

n.收回，取回，撤回( withdrawal的名词复数 )；撤退，撤走；收回[取回，撤回，撤退，撤走]的实例；推出（组织），提走（存款），戒除毒瘾，对说过的话收回，孤僻

参考例句：

• He has made several withdrawals from his bank account. 他从银行账户上提了几次款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It is not the bank's policy to deduct interest on withdrawals. 提款需扣除利息这并非是本银行的政策。 来自辞典例句

20 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

21 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

22 barge   

n.平底载货船，驳船

参考例句：

• The barge was loaded up with coal.那艘驳船装上了煤。
• Carrying goods by train costs nearly three times more than carrying them by barge.通过铁路运货的成本比驳船运货成本高出近3倍。

23 outstrips   

v.做得比…更好，（在赛跑等中）超过( outstrip的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Technology daily outstrips the ability of our institutions to cope with its fruits. 技术发展的速度超过了我们的制度所能应付其成果的程度。 来自辞典例句
• The significance of the foreign exchange market outstrips its impressive size. 外汇市场的意义超出了它给人的印象尺度。 来自互联网

24 euphemism   

n.婉言，委婉的说法

参考例句：

• Language reflects culture and euphemism is a mirror of culture.语言反映文化,而婉语则是各种文化的一面镜子。
• Euphemism is a very common and complicated linguistic phenomenon.委婉语是一种十分常见而又非常复杂的语言现象。