经济学人365:铜 破碎的联系

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
Copper¹
铜
Broken contacts
破碎的联系
Finance, not economics, may explain copper's recent plunge²
金融市场而非经济状况造成了近期的铜价下滑
THE copper price has long been held to signal the state of the global economy as reliably as the metal conducts electrons.
铜价一直以来都是全球经济形势的信号，它的这个作用正如导电性能一样可靠。
But that reputation—never fully³ deserved—is now in tatters. Copper's plunging⁴ price says a lot about China, but little about the rest of the world.
如今这个本就不甚牢固的地位已经岌岌可危。一路下滑的铜价折射出中国的许多问题，不过与世界形势则关系不大。
China consumes about 40% of global copper production.
中国消耗着全球40%的成品铜。
铜.jpg
But not all of that goes straight into manufacturing or construction.
但并非所有的铜都被立即用于制造业以及建筑业。
Chinese companies have also been using copper as collateral⁵ for their hard-currency loans: “buy, store, hedge and pledge” in the words of one trader.
中国的公司还将铜作为硬通货贷款的抵押品。用一位从业者的话说，就是“购买，储存，用来对冲和抵押”。
That has led to an overhang, with far more of the metal stockpiled than users need.
铜的库存量已经远远超过使用需求，已经造成了过量储存。
Any change in the conditions that created this stockpile can have a big effect on the price.
造成这种储存的各种因素稍有变化就会对铜价造成重大影响。
A sign of this is that when the Chinese economy slows, as seems to be happening now, with manufacturing activity weakening for a fifth consecutive⁶ month, those stockpiles rise.
其中一个例子就是当中国经济增速放缓时，库存就会增加。
CRU, a metals researcher, now says the copper-market surplus this year will be four times bigger than it previously⁷ estimated, with forecast production outpacing demand by 140,000 tonnes.
金属研究机构CRU最近表示今年的铜剩余量将是其之前预计的4倍，预计产量将超过需求量140,000吨，。
Chinese data are notoriously opaque⁸, so judging the real health of the country's copper-consuming industries is hard.
鉴于中方的数据是出了名的不透明，所以很难判断该国铜消耗产业的真实规模。
A rebound⁹ in growth later this year could revive demand for the metal.
今年随后的经济增长反弹或许能重新刺激铜材的需求。
But other factors are piling pressure on to the copper price.
但其他因素也在给铜价施压。
One is a growing wariness¹⁰ among creditors¹¹, following a corporate-bond failure this month.
其中之一就是于本月发生了中国国内20世纪90年代以来首次的企业债券违约，这使借债机构变得愈发谨慎了。
As banks worry about their customers' abilities to service debts, Chinese firms are finding it harder to get loans.
由于银行担心客户的偿还能力，中国公司发现贷款更难了。
This is making some sell their copper to raise cash.
这使不少公司抛售储存的铜来套现。
Another factor is that Chinese regulators are cracking down on companies using copper stockpiles for speculation¹².
还有一个因素是中方的监管机构正在打击公司们利用铜存储进行投机活动的行为。
Joel Crane of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, argues that the authorities are targeting the “shadow-banking¹³ network” used by companies to evade¹⁴ controls on hard-currency lending.
投行摩根斯坦利的Joel Crane评论说，政府已经盯上了公司们用来逃避硬通货借贷管制的“影子银行网络”。
Chinese importers have long used letters of credit issued by banks for raw-material imports as a way of raising funds which they then use for other purposes.
中国的银行会发行原材料出口的信用证来募集资金，而进口商们却长期把这些信用证用于其它目的。
Such shadow banking created lucrative¹⁵ arbitrage¹⁶ possibilities for those able to take advantage of the difference between local and international interest rates.
这样的影子银行系统为那些能利用国内外利率差的人提供了通过套利牟取暴利的机会。
This is a useful dodge¹⁷ when times are good, not so when scrutiny¹⁸ increases.
当时机合适时，这是很有用的逃避方式，可监管严格时就不是了。
A reform in mid-2013 made companies holding copper for collateral keep it onshore, rather than in bonded¹⁹ warehouses²⁰, raising the cost of storage.
2013年中的一次改革要求持有铜作为抵押品的公司将铜保存在大陆地区，而非保税仓库，这也增加了储存的成本。
A similar story seems to be unfolding with iron ore.
铁矿石也在发生类似情况。
China accounts for half of world steel production, so the iron-ore price is hypersensitive to any downward flicker²¹ in demand.
中国占到了世界钢材产量的一半，所以铁矿石价格对于一丝一毫的需求减少的苗头都极度敏感。
Iron-ore stocks at Chinese ports are at record highs.
中国码头上的铁矿石储存量达到了创纪录的数值。
China is also trying to substitute its own, lower-quality ore for the higher-grade imported stuff.
中国正在试图用进口的高纯度矿石替代低质量的本国矿石。
It wants to cut overcapacity and pollution, including using the financial markets to put pressure on the steel industry through higher interest rates and tighter credit.
政府想要采取措施对付产能过剩和环境污染问题，包括在金融市场利用高利率和信贷紧缩来给钢铁行业施压。
Companies who used iron ore as collateral for their borrowing may now have to use it for debt repayments²² instead.
将铁矿石用作贷款抵押品的公司如今或许要将其转用作贷款偿还了。
Copper bears fear that this could easily get out of hand.
铜金属持有者担心这会造成情况失控。
But the likelihood is more a slow unwinding of positions than a crash.
但哪怕要失控，也将是一个缓慢的头寸解除过程而不会突然全部抛售。
Goldman Sachs, another bank, notes that it is not in the Chinese authorities' interest to shut down commodity-financing deals altogether.
另一家银行高盛集团表示中国政府并不打算完全废除商品金融。
It makes more sense just to increase the hedging and storage costs of those firms using commodities to speculate.
更像是只让使用商品进行投机的公司对冲和储存的成本上升。
Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas, also a bank, notes that the “few hundred thousand tonnes” involved in these deals is only a small part of a 20m tonne market.
法国巴黎银行的Stephen Briggs则认为这些交易涉及的“几十万吨”不过是铜材市场两千万总数的极小部分。
The truth may be that jitters²³ in China have just accelerated a change in perceptions about copper: from chronic²⁴ deficit²⁵ to surplus.
现实或许是，中国国内的神经敏感只是加速了对于铜的观念的改变：从长期供应不足到存储过多。
This stems from the impending²⁶ extra metal coming this year and next from new mines in places such as Mongolia, Peru and Mexico.
原因在于今年和明年将从蒙古、秘鲁、墨西哥的新建矿场中增加进口许多矿石。
Speculators may come and go, but at least copper, unlike gold, has a comfortably wide range of uses.
或许铜的投机生意难以预料，但和金子不同的是，铜至少有着大量的用途。

1 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

2 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

3 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

4 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

6 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

7 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

8 opaque   

adj.不透光的；不反光的，不传导的；晦涩的

参考例句：

• The windows are of opaque glass.这些窗户装着不透明玻璃。
• Their intentions remained opaque.他们的意图仍然令人费解。

9 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

10 wariness   

n. 注意,小心

参考例句：

• The British public's wariness of opera is an anomaly in Europe. 英国公众对歌剧不大轻易接受的态度在欧洲来说很反常。
• There certainly is a history of wariness about using the R-word. 历史表明绝对应当谨慎使用“衰退”一词。

11 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

13 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

14 evade   

vt.逃避，回避；避开，躲避

参考例句：

• He tried to evade the embarrassing question.他企图回避这令人难堪的问题。
• You are in charge of the job.How could you evade the issue?你是负责人，你怎么能对这个问题不置可否？

15 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

16 arbitrage   

n.套利，套汇

参考例句：

• This is an example of arbitrage.这就是套利的一个例子。
• That is interest arbitrage in practice.这就是所谓的套利。

17 dodge   

v.闪开，躲开，避开；n.妙计，诡计

参考例句：

• A dodge behind a tree kept her from being run over.她向树后一闪，才没被车从身上辗过。
• The dodge was coopered by the police.诡计被警察粉碎了。

18 scrutiny   

n.详细检查，仔细观察

参考例句：

• His work looks all right,but it will not bear scrutiny.他的工作似乎很好，但是经不起仔细检查。
• Few wives in their forties can weather such a scrutiny.很少年过四十的妻子经得起这么仔细的观察。

19 bonded   

n.有担保的，保税的，粘合的

参考例句：

• The whisky was taken to bonded warehouses at Port Dundee.威士忌酒已送到邓迪港的保稅仓库。
• This adhesive must be applied to both surfaces which are to be bonded together.要粘接的两个面都必须涂上这种黏合剂。

20 warehouses   

仓库，货栈( warehouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The whisky was taken to bonded warehouses at Port Dundee. 威士忌酒已送到邓迪港的保稅仓库。
• Row upon row of newly built warehouses line the waterfront. 江岸新建的仓库鳞次栉比。

21 flicker   

vi./n.闪烁，摇曳，闪现

参考例句：

• There was a flicker of lights coming from the abandoned house.这所废弃的房屋中有灯光闪烁。
• At first,the flame may be a small flicker,barely shining.开始时，光辉可能是微弱地忽隐忽现，几乎并不灿烂。

22 repayments   

偿还，报答，偿付的钱物( repayment的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The repayments of the loan are spread over 10 years. 贷款可在十年内分期偿还。
• The repayments of the loan are spread over 25 years. 这笔贷款分摊二十五年偿还。

23 jitters   

n.pl.紧张(通常前面要有the)

参考例句：

• I always get the jitters before exams. 我考试前总是很紧张。
• The whole city had the jitters from the bombing. 全城居民都为轰炸而心神不宁。

24 chronic   

adj.(疾病)长期未愈的，慢性的；极坏的

参考例句：

• Famine differs from chronic malnutrition.饥荒不同于慢性营养不良。
• Chronic poisoning may lead to death from inanition.慢性中毒也可能由虚弱导致死亡。

25 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

26 impending   

a.imminent, about to come or happen

参考例句：

• Against a background of impending famine, heavy fighting took place. 即将发生饥荒之时，严重的战乱爆发了。
• The king convoke parliament to cope with the impending danger. 国王召开国会以应付迫近眉睫的危险。