经济学人413:行为经济学 时间与处罚

 　　The economics of behavior

　　行为经济学

　　Time and punishment

　　时间与处罚

　　Impatient children are more likely to become lawbreakers

　　心急的孩子更容易成为不法分子

　　IN HIS “Odyssey”, Homer immortalized the idea of resisting temptation by having the protagonist¹ tied to the mast of his ship, to hear yet not succumb² to the beautiful, dangerous songs of the Sirens. Researchers have long been intrigued³ as to whether this ability to avoid, or defer⁴, gratification is related to outcomes in life. The best-known test is the “marshmallow” experiment, in which children who could refrain from eating the confection for 15 minutes were given a second one. Children who could not wait tended to have lower incomes and poorer health as adults. New research suggests that kids who are unable to delay rewards are also more likely to become criminals later.

　　荷马笔下的《奥德赛》里，那抵制诱惑的故事经久不衰。主角将自己绑在船的桅杆上，听得到塞壬美妙却又危险的歌声，但不屈从于诱惑。长期以来，研究人员一直好奇人们是否有能力抵制或推迟与生活相关的满足感。在最知名的“棉花糖”实验里，15分钟内能忍住不吃糖的孩子就可以吃到两块棉花糖。无法等待的孩子成年后往往收入较低，健康状况较差。新的研究表明，不能耽搁而必须立即享受奖赏的孩子们之后也更可能成为罪犯。

　　时间与处罚.jpg

　　David Akerlund, Hans Gronqvist and Lena Lindahl of Stockholm University and Bart Golsteyn of Maastricht University used data from a Swedish survey in which more than 13,000 children aged⁵ 13 were asked whether they would prefer to receive $140 now or $1,400 in five years'time. About four-fifths of them said they were prepared to wait.

　　斯德哥尔摩大学的大卫·阿克隆德，汉斯·格伦维斯特，莉娜·林达尔，以及马斯特里赫特大学的巴特·哥斯蒂恩使用了一项取自瑞典的调查数据，调查中，超过13,000名13岁的孩子被问及是希望现在获得140美元还是五年后获得1,400美元，约五分之四的孩子说他们愿意等待。

　　Unlike previous researchers, the authors were able to track all the children and account for their parental⁶ background and cognitive⁷ ability. They found that the 13-year-olds who wanted the smaller sum of money at once were 32% more likely to be convicted of a crime during the next 18 years than those children who said they would rather wait for the bigger reward. Individuals who are impatient, they believe, prefer instant benefits and are therefore less likely to be deterred⁹ by potential punishments.

　　不同于以往的研究者，此次调查中，研究人员追踪所有的孩子，并对其父母的背景和认知能力进行评估。他们发现，比起那些宁愿等待更大奖赏的13岁孩子，想要一次性取得较小金额的孩子有32%的可能在今后18年内犯下罪行。因此，研究人员相信，缺乏耐心的个体喜欢即时的好处，而且不太可能因潜在的惩罚而却步。

　　But those who fret¹⁰ that a person’s criminal path is set already as a teenager should not despair. The four researchers offer a remedy. When the respondents'education was included in the analysis, they found that higher educational attainment¹¹ was linked to a preference for delayed gratification. “We therefore suspect that schooling¹² can deter⁸ people from crime by making them value the future more,” explains Mr Gronqvist.

　　但是，那些为一个人的犯罪轨迹在十几岁时就已定型发愁的人也不用绝望。四位研究人员提供了一项补救措施。当受访者的教育程度被纳入分析时，研究人员发现，较高的教育程度与推迟满足感的偏好是有联系的。“因此，我们猜想，学校教育可以使他们更多的看重未来，从而压下犯罪的念头，”格伦维斯特先生解释道。

　　Educational attainment and patience are related either because patience helps students to do better or because schooling makes people more likely to postpone¹³ rewards. Fortunately, there is evidence in support of the latter theory. Francisco Perez-Arce of the RAND Corporation, a think-tank, interviewed around 2,000 applicants¹⁴ for Mexican universities. The students had similar credentials¹⁵ but some obtained admission through a lottery¹⁶ to a university that did not charge tuition fees, whereas the rest had to apply elsewhere. As a result, a higher proportion of lottery-winners than losers went to college. After a year, Mr Perez-Arce found, the lottery-winners were more patient than the losers. Since the process was random¹⁷, he concluded that higher education can make people place more weight on the future.

　　教育程度和耐心的相关性可能是因为耐心能帮助学生们做的更好，或者是因为教育增加了人们推迟奖赏的可能性。幸运的是，后一种理论有着论据支撑。咨询研究机构兰德的弗朗西斯科·佩雷斯-阿尔塞采访了大约2,000位墨西哥大学的申请者。学生们手中有相似的凭据，但一些人能凭借抽奖被大学录取且不收学费，其他人则需另谋他处。结果，抽奖赢家们上大学的比例高于未被抽中者。一年后，佩雷斯-阿尔塞发现，抽奖中的赢家比输家更有耐心。由于这个过程是随机的，他得出结论称高等教育可以使人们更多的关注于未来。

　　Victor Hugo supposedly said, “He who opens a school door closes a prison.” Homer is not the only great writer with lessons for economic research.

　　维克多·雨果曾说，“谁若是开办了一所学校,他便是关闭了一座监狱。”看起来，写下与经济研究相关的经验教训的伟大作家可不止荷马一人。

1 protagonist   

n.(思想观念的)倡导者；主角，主人公

参考例句：

• The protagonist reforms in the end and avoids his proper punishment.戏剧主角最后改过自新并避免了他应受的惩罚。
• He is the model for the protagonist in the play.剧本中的主人公就是以他为模特儿创作的！

2 succumb   

v.屈服，屈从；死

参考例句：

• They will never succumb to the enemies.他们决不向敌人屈服。
• Will business leaders succumb to these ideas?商业领袖们会被这些观点折服吗？

3 intrigued   

adj.好奇的，被迷住了的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的过去式)；激起…的兴趣或好奇心；“intrigue”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• You've really intrigued me—tell me more! 你说的真有意思—再给我讲一些吧！
• He was intrigued by her story. 他被她的故事迷住了。

4 defer   

vt.推迟，拖延；vi.(to)遵从，听从，服从

参考例句：

• We wish to defer our decision until next week.我们希望推迟到下星期再作出决定。
• We will defer to whatever the committee decides.我们遵从委员会作出的任何决定。

5 aged   

adj.年老的，陈年的

参考例句：

• He had put on weight and aged a little.他胖了，也老点了。
• He is aged,but his memory is still good.他已年老，然而记忆力还好。

6 parental   

adj.父母的；父的；母的

参考例句：

• He encourages parental involvement in the running of school.他鼓励学生家长参与学校的管理。
• Children always revolt against parental disciplines.孩子们总是反抗父母的管束。

7 cognitive   

adj.认知的，认识的，有感知的

参考例句：

• As children grow older,their cognitive processes become sharper.孩子们越长越大，他们的认知过程变得更为敏锐。
• The cognitive psychologist is like the tinker who wants to know how a clock works.认知心理学者倒很像一个需要通晓钟表如何运转的钟表修理匠。

8 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

9 deterred   

v.阻止，制止( deter的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I told him I wasn't interested, but he wasn't deterred. 我已告诉他我不感兴趣，可他却不罢休。
• Jeremy was not deterred by this criticism. 杰里米没有因这一批评而却步。 来自辞典例句

10 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

11 attainment   

n.达到，到达；［常pl.］成就，造诣

参考例句：

• We congratulated her upon her attainment to so great an age.我们祝贺她高寿。
• The attainment of the success is not easy.成功的取得并不容易。

12 schooling   

n.教育；正规学校教育

参考例句：

• A child's access to schooling varies greatly from area to area.孩子获得学校教育的机会因地区不同而大相径庭。
• Backward children need a special kind of schooling.天赋差的孩子需要特殊的教育。

13 postpone   

v.延期，推迟

参考例句：

• I shall postpone making a decision till I learn full particulars.在未获悉详情之前我得从缓作出决定。
• She decided to postpone the converastion for that evening.她决定当天晚上把谈话搁一搁。

14 applicants   

申请人，求职人( applicant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• There were over 500 applicants for the job. 有500多人申请这份工作。
• He was impressed by the high calibre of applicants for the job. 求职人员出色的能力给他留下了深刻印象。

15 credentials   

n.证明，资格，证明书，证件

参考例句：

• He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作资历很深。
• Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此项工作的两个求职者都非常符合资格。

16 lottery   

n.抽彩；碰运气的事，难于算计的事

参考例句：

• He won no less than ￡5000 in the lottery.他居然中了5000英镑的奖券。
• They thought themselves lucky in the lottery of life.他们认为自己是变幻莫测的人生中的幸运者。

17 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。