经济学人440:巴以 新常态

 　　Israel and Palestine

　　巴以

　　The new normal

　　新常态

　　No matter what Israel's prime minister says, the conflict with the Palestinians cannot simply be “managed”

　　无论以色列总理说什么，巴以冲突都不可能简单的“处理好”。

　　THE prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, has sought to make life normal. While the Middle East has gone up in flames, Israel's economy has thrived. Cafés emptied a decade ago by Palestinian suicide-bombers are once again teeming¹ with customers. Demonstrators in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have protested not just about war and peace, but even more vociferously² about the price of cottage cheese.

　　以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡正在设法使以色列回归正常生活。虽然中东地区陷入火海，以色列的经济却蓬勃发展。十年前被巴勒斯坦人自杀式炸弹袭击的咖啡馆由门可罗雀恢复成如今的顾客满盈。聚集在耶路撒冷和特拉维夫（以色列港市）的人民不再仅仅为了和平而示威，如今更多的却是由于白干酪的物价过高而抗议。

　　This unreal normality is now under threat. After a two-year lull³, rockets fired from Gaza have rained down on Israel. The Israel Defence Forces have struck hundreds of sites in Gaza. The army is ready to mobilise up to 40,000 reserves. The talk is of a ground offensive against Hamas, which governs Gaza (see article). Palestinians, 70 of whom have already been killed, are sliding towards a third uprising, or intifada.

　　然而这种不真实的正常生活如今已受到威胁。才过两年平静的生活，巴勒斯坦便从加沙发射火箭弹炮轰以色列；以色列国防军随即攻占加沙地区数百个地区，并欲召集达40,000人的预备队对抗哈马斯集团，如今他们已经控制住加沙地区（另见文）。巴勒斯坦死亡人数已达70人，尽管如此，他们仍将发动第三次起义，或者说是暴动。

　　Mr Netanyahu's mistake—compounded by the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinians on the West Bank—is to think that their versions of normality can be sustained simply by managing the conflict. A stand-off is always liable to tip into violence. Lasting⁴ peace will come about only when the two sides reach a comprehensive settlement.

　　内塔尼亚胡的失误，再加上西岸(1967年被以色列占领的巴勒斯坦的约旦河西岸的部分)的巴勒斯坦领袖马哈茂德·阿巴斯的行动，这似乎表明唯有平息两国冲突才能维护他们想要的正常生活。两军对峙常常会演变成暴力冲突。也唯有达成全面和解，两国才能拥有持久和平。

　　More than maintenance

　　不仅是维持

　　巴以.jpg

　　Today's violence was triggered by the murder of three Israeli teenagers, snatched on their way back from study at ayeshiva in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu blamed Hamas—on evidence that remains⁵ unclear—leading to the arrest of hundreds of Palestinians, including some prisoners who had recently been released under an American-sponsored scheme designed to boost peace talks with Mr Abbas. In retaliation⁶, and outraged⁷ at the murder of a young Palestinian, militants⁸ fired rockets into Israel. The IDF responded with lethal⁹ force. In a few short days, the original offence was superseded¹⁰ by the logic¹¹ of escalating¹² action and reaction.

　　这次暴力行动的导火索是三名以色列青年被杀，他们在西岸的以色列殖民地ayeshiya上学，在放学路上被抓并杀害。内塔尼亚胡认为这是哈马斯集团所为，尽管证据不足，但仍然逮捕了数百名巴勒斯坦人，其中包括近期由美国发起的同阿巴斯和平谈判计划中释放的犯人。一名年轻的巴勒斯坦人被杀害激怒了激进分子，为了报复以色列便向其发射火箭弹。以色列国防军（IDF）则施致命武力还以颜色。短短几天，两军行动不断升级。

　　Such fragility is a symptom of the influence of extremists on both sides. Some on the Israeli right see a chance to smash Hamas, which has been weakened in Gaza, both by its own incompetence¹³ and by Egypt's new government closing the tunnels leading from Sinai into Gaza. But Israeli force is more likely to revive Hamas than break it. The Islamists would once again rally support as the main resistance to the hated occupiers, whilst leaving Mr Abbas looking more like the stooge.

　　双方激进分子的影响力很大，同时也很脆弱。支持以色列的激进分子看到了粉碎哈马斯的希望，但由于自身无能和埃及新政府关闭了从西奈到加沙的隧道，导致在加沙的粉碎力量被削弱。但是以色列的武力貌似更可能复燃哈马斯，而不是将其粉碎。伊斯兰教徒可能会再次凝聚力量反对侵略者，阿巴斯则沦为配角。

　　Centrist Israelis would settle for periodic missions designed to tamp¹⁴ down Hamas—“mowing the lawn” they call it. The idea is that the occasional brutal¹⁵ show of force can buy a few more years of normality. Yet doing so is becoming harder. Even if Hamas's rockets remain inaccurate¹⁶ and are rarely lethal, the latest have reached parts of northern Israel 125 kilometres (80 miles) from Gaza. People in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem will, understandably, refuse to live under constant threat. Israel could of course smite¹⁷ its enemies with ever-bloodier fervour. But to the watching world, its overwhelming use of force, which always leaves many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, has often looked excessive—and its international standing¹⁸, which moderate Israelis care about, tumbles further.

　　以色列中间派则认为阶段性镇压哈马斯即可，即所谓的“割草行动”。他们认为偶尔派军队进行残酷镇压就可以换取数年的平静生活。然而这种状态也越来越难满足。虽然哈马斯的火箭弹从来不准，也鲜有致命，但是近期这次已经击中离加沙仅125千米（80米）的以色列北部地区。特拉维夫市和耶路撒冷的人们不愿意生活在威胁之下也是情理之中。以色列当然也可以用更加血腥的方式还击。但看看世界就会明白，压倒式军事行动通常只会使巴勒斯坦的死伤比以色列更加惨重；而温和的以色列中间派所重视的国际声望也会越跌越低。

　　In any case, the status quo on the Palestinian side looks untenable. Mr Abbas is tired and ineffectual. Under him, normality for the West Bank's Palestinians has come to mean accepting Israeli occupation while Israeli settlers gobble up ever more territory. Without even the prospect¹⁹ of statehood, Palestinians are impatient.

　　无论如何，巴勒斯坦都无法维持现状。阿巴斯疲倦无能。在他的领导下，西岸的巴勒斯坦人要想过上正常生活就得接受被以色列占领，而同时，以色列就会贪婪地占领更多地方。国家地位堪忧，巴勒斯坦人民坐立不安。

　　For all these reasons, the failure of Mr Netanyahu to make peace a priority is dangerous. He did not make the most of the recent plan put forward by John Kerry, America's secretary of state. Both he and Mr Abbas recklessly pursued short-term advantage during the talks, leaving their countries vulnerable to those who argue that, with the hopes of peace exhausted²⁰, conflict is all that remains. That is wrong. Two states, one for Israelis and one for Palestinians, remains by far the greatest hope for peace. The parameters²¹ of an agreement are well-rehearsed. What is lacking is the conviction among reasonable people that such a settlement is needed now. Without that belief, Israel's normality will always have an air of unreality.

　　因此，出于所有这些原因，内塔尼亚胡促和平之举的失败会遭致危险。他并没有充分重视美国国务卿约翰·克里近期提出的计划。谈判时，他和阿巴斯贪图短期利益，欠缺考虑，置国家安危于不顾，一旦和平之梦破碎，冲突将无法避免。他们这种考虑是错误的。虽然两国双方，以色列和巴勒斯坦，都怀着至今为止最大的和平之梦；协议内容也经过精心安排。但是明理人士并不确信他们现在需要这样一份协议。缺少信心，以色列回归常态之梦总显得虚幻。

1 teeming   

adj.丰富的v.充满( teem的现在分词 )；到处都是；（指水、雨等）暴降；倾注

参考例句：

• The rain was teeming down. 大雨倾盆而下。
• the teeming streets of the city 熙熙攘攘的城市街道

2 vociferously   

adv.喊叫地，吵闹地

参考例句：

• They are arguing vociferously over who should pay the bill. 他们为谁该付账单大声争吵。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Annixter had cursed him so vociferously and tersely that even Osterman was cowed. 安尼克斯特骂了他的声音之大，语气之凶，连奥斯特曼也不禁吓了一跳。 来自辞典例句

3 lull   

v.使安静，使入睡，缓和，哄骗；n.暂停，间歇

参考例句：

• The drug put Simpson in a lull for thirty minutes.药物使辛普森安静了30分钟。
• Ground fighting flared up again after a two-week lull.经过两个星期的平静之后，地面战又突然爆发了。

4 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

5 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

6 retaliation   

n.报复，反击

参考例句：

• retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复
• He never said a single word in retaliation. 他从未说过一句反击的话。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 outraged   

a.震惊的，义愤填膺的

参考例句：

• Members of Parliament were outraged by the news of the assassination. 议会议员们被这暗杀的消息激怒了。
• He was outraged by their behavior. 他们的行为使他感到愤慨。

8 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

9 lethal   

adj.致死的；毁灭性的

参考例句：

• A hammer can be a lethal weapon.铁锤可以是致命的武器。
• She took a lethal amount of poison and died.她服了致命剂量的毒药死了。

10 superseded   

[医]被代替的，废弃的

参考例句：

• The theory has been superseded by more recent research. 这一理论已为新近的研究所取代。
• The use of machinery has superseded manual labour. 机器的使用已经取代了手工劳动。

11 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

12 escalating   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句

13 incompetence   

n.不胜任，不称职

参考例句：

• He was dismissed for incompetence. 他因不称职而被解雇。
• She felt she had been made a scapegoat for her boss's incompetence. 她觉得，本是老板无能，但她却成了替罪羊。

14 tamp   

v.捣实，砸实

参考例句：

• Then I tamp down the soil with the back of a rake.然后我用耙子的背将土壤拍实。
• Philpott tamped a wad of tobacco into his pipe.菲尔波特往烟斗里塞了一卷碎烟叶。

15 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。

16 inaccurate   

adj.错误的，不正确的，不准确的

参考例句：

• The book is both inaccurate and exaggerated.这本书不但不准确，而且夸大其词。
• She never knows the right time because her watch is inaccurate.她从来不知道准确的时间因为她的表不准。

17 smite   

v.重击；彻底击败；n.打；尝试；一点儿

参考例句：

• The wise know how to teach,the fool how to smite.智者知道如何教导，愚者知道怎样破坏。
• God will smite our enemies.上帝将击溃我们的敌人。

18 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

19 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

20 exhausted   

adj.极其疲惫的，精疲力尽的

参考例句：

• It was a long haul home and we arrived exhausted.搬运回家的这段路程特别长，到家时我们已筋疲力尽。
• Jenny was exhausted by the hustle of city life.珍妮被城市生活的忙乱弄得筋疲力尽。

21 parameters   

因素，特征； 界限； （限定性的）因素( parameter的名词复数 )； 参量； 参项； 决定因素

参考例句：

• We have to work within the parameters of time. 我们的工作受时间所限。
• See parameters.cpp for a compilable example. This is part of the Spirit distribution. 可编译例子见parameters.cpp.这是Spirit分发包的组成部分。