经济学人461:货币政策 或紧或松没有关系

 　　Monetary¹ policy

　　货币政策

　　Tight, loose, irrelevant²

　　或紧或松没有关系

　　Interest rates do not seem to affect investment as economists³ assume

　　利率似乎并不像经济学家假设的那样影响投资

　　IT IS Economics 101. If central bankers want to spur economic activity, they cut interest rates. If they want to dampen it, they raise them. The assumption is that, as it becomes cheaper or more expensive for businesses and households to borrow, they will adjust their spending accordingly. But for businesses in America, at least, a newstudy* suggests that the accepted wisdom on monetary policy is broadly (but not entirely) wrong.

　　上过经济学101课程的人都知道：如果中央银行想刺激经济，那么它会降低利率；而如果它想遏制经济过度膨胀，就会提高利率。我们这样说的前提假设是：当企业家或家庭贷款的成本增加或降低时，他们会相应地调整支出。但是一项最新的调查显示，对于企业家们，至少是美国的企业家，这个公认的货币政策原理在经常是错误的（但不完全错误）。

　　利率.jpg

　　Using data stretching back to 1952, the paper concludes that market interest rates, which central banks aim to influence when they set their policy rates, play some role in how much firms invest, but not much. Other factors—most notably⁴ how profitable a firm is and how well its shares do—are far more important (see chart). A government that wants to pep up the economy, says S.P. Kothari of the Sloan School of Management, one of the authors, would have more luck with other measures, such as lower taxes or less onerous⁵ regulation.

　　使用1952年以来的数据，这篇论文得出这样一个结论：央行希望通过制定利率政策来控制市场利率，这个市场利率对企业投资具有一定影响作用，但作用并不大。而其他因素，尤其是企业获利能力和股票收益情况，则更加显著地影响投资。其中一名来自斯隆管理学院的作者S.P. Kothari说道：如果政府希望刺激经济，应该多采取除货币政策以外的其他措施，比如降低企业税收、减少企业法律义务。

　　Establishing what drives business investment is difficult, not least because it expands and contracts far more dramatically than the economy as a whole. These shifts were particularly manic in the late 1950s (both up and down), mid-1960s (up), and 2000s (down, up, then down again). Overall, investment has been in slight decline since the early 1980s.

　　建立一种刺激企业投资的机制是很困难的，不仅仅是因为它扩张和相互联系的方式远远比经济整体更加复杂。这种波动在这些时段表现得尤为显著：20世纪50年代末（有上涨也有下跌）、60年代中叶（上涨）、2000年代（先涨后跌，然后又涨）。总体来说，从20世纪80年代早期开始，投资增速就开始慢慢减缓了。

　　Having sifted⁶ through decades of data, however, the authors conclude that neither volatility⁷ in the financial markets nor credit-default swaps⁸, a measure of corporate⁹ credit risk that tends to influence the rates firms pay, has much impact. In fact, investment often rises when interest rates go up and volatility increases.

　　然而，通过仔细研究几十年的数据，这篇论文的作者得出这样一个结论：无论是金融市场波动率还是信用违约掉期费率（一个衡量企业信贷风险的指标，通常会影响企业投资所支付的利率），对企业投资都无显著冲击。实际上，当利率提高、市场波动增强时，企业投资通常会增加。

　　Investment grows most quickly, though, in response to a surge in profits and drops with bad news. These ups and downs suggest shifts in investment go too far and are often ill-timed. At any rate, they do little good: big cuts can substantially boost profits, but only briefly¹⁰; big increases in investment slightly decrease profits.

　　虽然投资随着繁荣而快速增加，随着经济下滑而快速减少；但是这种波动却表明，投资的变动波幅太大，并且通常是滞后的。不管利率是高是低，投资的变动对经济刺激作用都很小：大幅增加投资确实可以持续促进盈利，但这个作用很小；而大幅减少投资也只能轻微地降低利润。

　　Companies, Mr Kothari says, tend to dwell too much on recent experience when deciding how much to invest and too little on how changing circumstances may affect future returns. This is particularly true in difficult times. Appealing opportunities may exist, and they may be all the more attractive because of low interest rates. That should matter—but the data suggest it does not.

　　Kothari先生说，企业在决定投资多少时，往往过多地关注于近期的经验，而很少关注利率变动对未来收益会有何影响。在低谷的时候这种现象更加严重。赚大钱的机会是存在的，并且当利率很低时，投资会变得更具吸引力。利率应当是影响投资的--但数据表明事实并非如此。

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 irrelevant   

adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的

参考例句：

• That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
• A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上，一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

5 onerous   

adj.繁重的

参考例句：

• My household duties were not particularly onerous.我的家务活并不繁重。
• This obligation sometimes proves onerous.这一义务有时被证明是艰巨的。

6 sifted   

v.筛( sift的过去式和过去分词 )；筛滤；细查；详审

参考例句：

• She sifted through her papers to find the lost letter. 她仔细在文件中寻找那封丢失的信。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She sifted thistles through her thistle-sifter. 她用蓟筛筛蓟。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

8 swaps   

交换( swap的名词复数 )； 交换物，被掉换者

参考例句：

• He swaps his old car for a new motorcycle. 他用旧车换了一辆新摩托车。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 口语
• Swaps the anchor and end points of the current selection. 交换当前所选内容的定位点和结束点。

9 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

10 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。