经济学人481:移民与经济 移民如何助力

 　　Immigration and the economy

　　移民与经济

　　How migrants help

　　移民如何助力

　　And how Obama's order doesn't

　　奥巴马的政策为何不管用

　　IMMIGRATION is the quintessential supply-side policy. It expands the labour force, encourages investment and provides taxpayers¹ to supportAmerica's growing ranks of the grey-haired. Sadly, Barack Obama's immigration order will have few such benefits, because it is aimed largely at illegal immigrants who arrived years ago while doing precious little to increase the flow of newcomers.

　　移民政策事关国家供给。它能扩充劳动力，鼓励投资，提供纳税人去赡养美国日益增多的老龄人口。但遗憾的是，巴拉克·奥巴马的移民很难带来这些好处。因为这些条例仅主要针对多年前偷渡到美国的非法移民们，但对于增强新移民的流动性，帮助甚少。

　　移民.jpg

　　The reform that passed the Senate last year (but was never taken up by the House of Representatives), besides legalising millions of illegal immigrants, would have created new entry routes for foreign workers, especially those with skills, experience and education. The Congressional Budget Office reckoned it would boost the population in a decade's time by10m, the number of workers by6m, and the level of GDP by 3.3%.

　　参议院去年一致通过了移民改革政策（但却从没有征得众议院的同意）。除了让数百万非法移民合法化，将会为外籍工人尤其是那些有技能、经验以及受过高等教育的人，创造新的移民途径。国会预算办公室估算，未来十年内，新的政策将会促使总人口达到10亿规模，劳动力人口达到6亿，国内生产总值增速达3.3%

　　By contrast, Mr Obama's Council of Economic Advisers² reckons his order will boost GDP in the next decade by between 0.4% and 0.9%, mostly because of provisions unrelated to illegal immigration. These give foreign entrepreneurs more ways to get into America, allow the spouses³ of skilled visa-holders to work, and let foreign-born science graduates spend more time in America doing their training.

　　相反的，经济顾问委员会估算，未来十年内，主要因为非法移民的无关规定，奥巴马的新条例仅会促使美国国内生产总值增长0.4%-0.9%。这给了外资企业更多进入美国市场的机会，并且允许持有技术签证的配偶们在美国工作，让外籍理工科毕业生在美国停留更长时间完成科研、训练。

　　In theory, the economy should benefit as illegal immigrants, no longer fearing they will be deported⁴, switch to jobs better suited to their skills. But that advantage is likely to be small: a study by Silvia Helena Barcellos, now at the University of Southern California, found that Mexican high-school dropouts who qualified⁵ for the 1986 amnesty earned only 2-3% more than those who did not qualify, and that there was little difference in where they worked or the types of jobs they had, though their better-educated counterparts got better jobs.

　　理论上，非法移民处境的改善能够国家经济收益，这些非法移民们可以切换到能发挥他们技能的工作岗位上，并且不再害怕被驱逐出境。但是这个益处看上去微不足道。南加州大学西尔维亚·海伦娜·巴塞罗斯通过研究发现，1986年大赦的那些墨西哥高中辍学者的收入仅仅只比那些没有得到特赦资格的人多2-3%，虽然受过良好教育的同行有更好的工作，但是他们的工作种类却没有太大的差别。

　　Immigration is already shrinking as a contributor to American growth. Legal immigration has been around1ma year for the past decade, and is edging down as a share of the population (see chart). Illegal immigration more or less came to a halt in 2007. Since then, the number of illegal immigrants freshly arrived in the country has been roughly balanced, or exceeded, by the number who have left, died or been deported. The longer Congress goes without legislating⁶ a change, the costlier⁷ it will be for the economy.

　　移民对美国经济增长的贡献力度正在减弱，在过去的十年里，合法移民的数量保持在每年100万左右，在总人口总数中所占的比例不断降低。而非法移民从2007年开始就被禁止了。自从那以后，那些刚来到美国非法移民的数量已经大致平衡或略微超过已经离开,死亡或被驱逐出境的非法移民人数。国会不对立法做出改变的时间越越长，国家为此所付出的经济成本就越高。

1 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

2 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

3 spouses   

n.配偶，夫或妻( spouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Jobs are available for spouses on campus and in the community. 校园里和社区里有配偶可做的工作。 来自辞典例句
• An astonishing number of spouses-most particularly in the upper-income brackets-have no close notion of their husbands'paychecks. 相当大一部分妇女——特别在高收入阶层——并不很了解他们丈夫的薪金。 来自辞典例句

4 deported   

v.将…驱逐出境( deport的过去式和过去分词 )；举止

参考例句：

• They stripped me of my citizenship and deported me. 他们剥夺我的公民资格，将我驱逐出境。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The convicts were deported to a deserted island. 罪犯们被流放到一个荒岛。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 qualified   

adj.合格的，有资格的，胜任的，有限制的

参考例句：

• He is qualified as a complete man of letters.他有资格当真正的文学家。
• We must note that we still lack qualified specialists.我们必须看到我们还缺乏有资质的专家。

6 legislating   

v.立法，制定法律( legislate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Why are the senators sitting there without legislating? 为什么那些议员们做在那里不立法？ 来自互联网
• From legislating and protecting peasant's interests organizationally. " 从立法和组织上保护农民利益。 来自互联网

7 costlier   

adj.昂贵的( costly的比较级 )；代价高的；引起困难的；造成损失的

参考例句：

• Alligator skin is five times more costlier than leather. 鳄鱼皮比通常的皮革要贵5倍。 来自互联网
• Disagreements among creditors can be costlier still. 债权人之间的分歧会加大重组的费用。 来自互联网