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经济学人:俄罗斯和卢布 自己种下的恶果自己承受

时间:2015-02-25 07:15来源:互联网 提供网友:mapleleaf   字体: [ ]
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    (单词翻译:双击或拖选)

   Russia and the rouble

  俄罗斯和卢布
  As ye sow, so shall ye reap
  自己种下的恶果,自己承受
  The collapse1 in the rouble is caused by Vladimir Putin's belligerence2, greed and paranoia3
  由于弗拉基米尔普京的挑衅、贪婪以及偏执,导致卢布崩溃
  VLADIMIR PUTIN has successfully suppressed dissent4, squeezed out opposition5 and clamped down on the media, but he has not been able to control global financial markets. In recent days the rouble has collapsed6; it has lost almost 40% of its value over three weeks. This is the biggest crisis of Mr Putin's reign—and it is entirely7 his fault.
  弗拉基米尔普京成功压制了异议,挤出了反对者,严厉打击了媒体,但是他还是没能控制国际金融市场。近期卢布崩盘,过去三周,卢布价值暴跌40%。这是普京当政期间遭遇的最大的危机—而且这完全就是普京的错。
  卢布.jpg
  Mr Putin will no doubt blame all the usual suspects—Western speculators who bet against his currency, Western imperialists who imposed sanctions on his economy, Western economists9 who failed to forecast that the oil price (down by half over six months) would fall as far as it has and, of course, Western newspapers that told him that his policies would lead to disaster. But the crisis is the inevitable10 consequence of Putinism—of aggression11 abroad and a corrupt-and-control economy at home.
  毫无疑问,普京将会把责任归咎于所有的嫌疑人身上—下赌注反对卢布的西方投机商,对俄罗斯经济采取制裁的西方帝国主义者,没能预测油价将会下跌到当前水平(过去六个月下跌了一半)的西方经济学家们;当然还有告诉他他的政策将会带来灾难的西方报纸。但是这场危机是普京主义不可避免的结果——国外挑衅加上国内受贿控制经济。
  Kleptocracy and its consequences
  腐朽政府及其后果
  The sanctions were imposed by the West because of his conduct in the Ukraine, where he has, among many things, seized territory, engineered a war and refused to investigate the shooting down of a civilian12 airliner13. Meanwhile, he has failed to reform Russia's economy, leaving it dependent on the energy industry that he has carved up among his friends. Had he chosen to build an economy based on the rule of law and competition rather than patronage14 and corruption15, things would have looked very different.
  西方采取制裁是因为他在乌克兰的行为,他控制了该领土,密谋策划了一场战争,拒绝调查一架民航飞机被击落的事件。同时,俄罗斯经济改革失败,使得俄罗斯依赖于他从朋友那里瓜分来的能源工业上。如果他选择建立一个基于法制和竞争而不是互利互惠和受贿的经济体系,那么现在就会是另一番景象。
  In the short term, there is not a great deal that Mr Putin can do to get his country out of the mess that he has made. A huge interest-rate rise this week, following previous large increases, has not worked. Capital controls are not the answer. They can sometimes be effectively employed against short-term speculation16, but in this case investors17 are rightly worried about an economy that is so reliant on one sector18. Anyway, in such a lawless place, capital controls would be porous19 and could trigger runs on the banks which the country could ill afford. Russia still has reserves of $370 billion, but it also has foreign-currency debts of more than $600 billion.
  短期来看,普京不能让俄罗斯摆脱掉他制造的这个困境。紧接着前期的大幅上涨,本周利率大幅上升,但并没有起作用。资本控制不是解决问题的答案。资本控制有时在对抗短期投机买卖方面能起到有效作用,但是在这个问题中,投资者有理由担心一个这么依赖于某一方面的经济是否可靠。不管怎样,在这样一个目无法纪的地方,资本控制将会有很多漏洞,而且会引发挤兑,这点国家将很难承担。俄罗斯还有3700亿美元储备金,但是他还有超过6千亿美金的外债。
  To improve the long-term prospects20 of an economy that is heading into a deep recession, two bigger changes are needed. The first is that Russia should pull back from eastern Ukraine and seek some accommodation with the government in Kiev and the West that could lead to the lifting of sanctions. The second is a change to the country's economic model. Mr Putin needs to take advantage of the fall in the value of the currency to diversify21 away from excess dependence22 on oil and gas, which make up two-thirds of exports; to improve the competitiveness of manufacturing and high-tech23 industry; to strengthen the rule of law; and to clean up corruption. To implement24 all this he should replace his pliant25 prime minister (and previous president), Dmitry Medvedev, with a credible26 economist8 such as Alexei Kudrin, who was a respected finance minister for 11 years. His oligarch chums might not like this, but Russians would be better off.
  为了提高陷入深度衰退的经济长期繁荣,需要两大方面的改变。第一个是俄罗斯从乌克兰东边撤兵,而且还要寻求和基辅政府以及可以解除制裁的西方国家之间的调解。第二个方面是改变国家的经济模式。普京需要利用货币价值的下跌,脱离对油和天然气的过度依赖,进行多元化发展,提高制造业和高科技产业的竞争力,加强法律,清理腐败。要实现上面这些,他要替换掉他容易摆布的首相(他也是前总统),德米特里梅德韦杰夫,换成可靠的经济学家如受尊敬的财政部长亚力克西库德林,他已任该职11年。他的寡头政治家朋友们可能不喜欢这个,但是俄罗斯人可能会更富裕。
  Sadly, none of this is likely to happen. Mr Putin will probably double down, railing against Western iniquity27, stifling28 all dissent at home, destabilising Ukraine still more and interfering29 further in other neighbouring countries. And he will pursue a course of growing autarky, severing30 as many of Russia's economic and financial links to the West as he can.
  遗憾的是,两者都不可能发生。普京可能会进行双重打击,怒斥西方的不公正,压制国内所有异议,使得乌克兰的政局更加动荡,更深入地干预其他邻国。他会追求自给自足,切断尽可能多的俄罗斯和西方的经济金融联系。
  A brazenly31 nationalist course will impoverish32 Russia further, making it impossible for Mr Putin to keep delivering rising living standards. He will gamble that the Russian people are foolish enough to trade prosperity for nationalistic fervour. This newspaper hopes he is wrong.
  一个厚颜无耻的民族主义进程会让俄罗斯更加贫穷,也会让普京更加不可能提高人民的生活质量。他在赌俄罗斯人民足够愚蠢,愿意用富裕来换取民族主义热情。本报希望他是错误的。

点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 collapse aWvyE     
vi.累倒;昏倒;倒塌;塌陷
参考例句:
  • The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
  • The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。
2 belligerence BuXzZ     
n.交战,好战性,斗争性
参考例句:
  • He could be accused of passion,but never belligerence.可以说他很冲动,但不能说他爱挑事。
  • He was almost back to his belligerent mood of twelve months ago.他故态复萌,几乎又像一年前那样咄咄逼人了。
3 paranoia C4rzL     
n.妄想狂,偏执狂;多疑症
参考例句:
  • Her passion for cleanliness borders on paranoia.她的洁癖近乎偏执。
  • The push for reform is also motivated by political paranoia.竞选的改革运动也受到政治偏执狂症的推动。
4 dissent ytaxU     
n./v.不同意,持异议
参考例句:
  • It is too late now to make any dissent.现在提出异议太晚了。
  • He felt her shoulders gave a wriggle of dissent.他感到她的肩膀因为不同意而动了一下。
5 opposition eIUxU     
n.反对,敌对
参考例句:
  • The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
  • The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。
6 collapsed cwWzSG     
adj.倒塌的
参考例句:
  • Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
  • The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。
7 entirely entirely     
ad.全部地,完整地;完全地,彻底地
参考例句:
  • The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
  • His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。
8 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人
参考例句:
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家,自以为什么都懂。
9 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
10 inevitable 5xcyq     
adj.不可避免的,必然发生的
参考例句:
  • Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
  • The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。
11 aggression WKjyF     
n.进攻,侵略,侵犯,侵害
参考例句:
  • So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结,就不必惧怕外来侵略。
  • Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。
12 civilian uqbzl     
adj.平民的,民用的,民众的
参考例句:
  • There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
  • He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。
13 airliner Azxz9v     
n.客机,班机
参考例句:
  • The pilot landed the airliner safely.驾驶员使客机安全着陆。
  • The passengers were shepherded across the tarmac to the airliner.旅客们被引导走过跑道去上飞机。
14 patronage MSLzq     
n.赞助,支援,援助;光顾,捧场
参考例句:
  • Though it was not yet noon,there was considerable patronage.虽然时间未到中午,店中已有许多顾客惠顾。
  • I am sorry to say that my patronage ends with this.很抱歉,我的赞助只能到此为止。
15 corruption TzCxn     
n.腐败,堕落,贪污
参考例句:
  • The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
  • The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。
16 speculation 9vGwe     
n.思索,沉思;猜测;投机
参考例句:
  • Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
  • There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。
17 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
18 sector yjczYn     
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
参考例句:
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
19 porous 91szq     
adj.可渗透的,多孔的
参考例句:
  • He added sand to the soil to make it more porous.他往土里掺沙子以提高渗水性能。
  • The shell has to be slightly porous to enable oxygen to pass in.外壳不得不有些细小的孔以便能使氧气通过。
20 prospects fkVzpY     
n.希望,前途(恒为复数)
参考例句:
  • There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
  • They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。
21 diversify m8gyt     
v.(使)不同,(使)变得多样化
参考例句:
  • Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
  • Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。
22 dependence 3wsx9     
n.依靠,依赖;信任,信赖;隶属
参考例句:
  • Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
  • He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。
23 high-tech high-tech     
adj.高科技的
参考例句:
  • The economy is in the upswing which makes high-tech services in more demand too.经济在蓬勃发展,这就使对高科技服务的需求量也在加大。
  • The quest of a cure for disease with high-tech has never ceased. 人们希望运用高科技治疗疾病的追求从未停止过。
24 implement WcdzG     
n.(pl.)工具,器具;vt.实行,实施,执行
参考例句:
  • Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划,除非你能完成这项计划。
  • The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。
25 pliant yO4xg     
adj.顺从的;可弯曲的
参考例句:
  • She's proud and stubborn,you know,under that pliant exterior.你要知道,在温顺的外表下,她既自傲又固执。
  • They weave a basket out of osiers with pliant young willows.他们用易弯的柳枝编制篮子。
26 credible JOAzG     
adj.可信任的,可靠的
参考例句:
  • The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
  • Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法?
27 iniquity F48yK     
n.邪恶;不公正
参考例句:
  • Research has revealed that he is a monster of iniquity.调查结果显示他是一个不法之徒。
  • The iniquity of the transaction aroused general indignation.这笔交易的不公引起了普遍的愤怒。
28 stifling dhxz7C     
a.令人窒息的
参考例句:
  • The weather is stifling. It looks like rain. 今天太闷热,光景是要下雨。
  • We were stifling in that hot room with all the windows closed. 我们在那间关着窗户的热屋子里,简直透不过气来。
29 interfering interfering     
adj. 妨碍的 动词interfere的现在分词
参考例句:
  • He's an interfering old busybody! 他老爱管闲事!
  • I wish my mother would stop interfering and let me make my own decisions. 我希望我母亲不再干预,让我自己拿主意。
30 severing 03ba12fb016b421f1fdaea1351e38cb3     
v.切断,断绝( sever的现在分词 );断,裂
参考例句:
  • The death of a second parent is like severing an umbilical cord to our past. 父母当中第二个人去世,就象斩断了把我们同过去联在一起的纽带。 来自辞典例句
  • The severing theory and severing method for brittle block are studied. 研究裂纹技术应用于分离脆性块体的分离理论和分离方法。 来自互联网
31 brazenly 050b0303ab1c4b948fddde2c176e6101     
adv.厚颜无耻地;厚脸皮地肆无忌惮地
参考例句:
  • How dare he distort the facts so brazenly! 他怎么敢如此肆无忌惮地歪曲事实! 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
  • "I don't know," he answered, looking her brazenly over. “我也不知道,"他厚颜无耻地打量着她。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
32 impoverish jchzM     
vt.使穷困,使贫困
参考例句:
  • We need to reduce the burden of taxes that impoverish the economy.我们需要减轻导致经济困顿的税收负荷。
  • America still has enough credibility to a more profitable path that would impoverish its creditors slowly.美国尚有足够的信用来让其得以选择一条更加有利可图的路径使它的债权人们渐渐贫困枯竭。
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