经济学人:反对人口普查 十年一度制度被保留

 　　Official statistics

　　官方统计

　　Con¹ census²

　　反对人口普查

　　Britain's decennial population count has been saved. Now make it work better

　　英国十年一度的人口普查被保留，如今需改良运作状态

　　WHEN the first results of the 2011 census were published, almost two years ago, the most striking discovery was straightforward³. Britain's population, it turned out, was around 500,000 bigger than statisticians had thought. For all that Britons are relentlessly⁵ surveyed, only a full count could reveal the size of the country, yet alone that of individual cities, towns and neighbourhoods.

　　约两年前，当2011年人口普查的数据发布时，最令人吃惊的发现是十分显而易见的。结果显示英国人口比统计学家预计的竟多了约500，000人。鉴于所有的英国人都被调查过了，除了个别一些城市、城镇和居民区，只有一次完整的计数能揭示这个国家真正的规模。

　　英国人口普查.jpg

　　Given that finding, the proposal made in 2010 by an austerity-minded coalition⁶ government to scrap⁷ Britain's decennial census seemed odd. It now looks as though the census will survive after all. On March 27th the Office for National Statistics (ONS) concluded that a full population count is still necessary, though many people will in future be asked to fill in the census online. In all likelihood, the government will follow its recommendations. Academics, market researchers and social historians breathed a sigh of relief.

　　鉴于此发现，这一联合政府于2010年提出的要取消英国十年一度人口普查的提议看起来有些古怪。如今看来人口普查是要被保留下来了。3月27日，国家统计局（ONS）得出的结论是尽管未来很多人将被要求在线填写人口普查调查表，进行一次完整的人口调查仍是必要的。不出意外的话，政府将会遵循它的提议。学者、市场调研员和社会历史学家终于松了口气。

　　Scrapping⁸ the census in favour of rolling surveys of a portion of the population was always a silly idea. A full count can provide information at the level of a single street, which even very large surveys could never do. The census also supplies detailed⁹ data about poorly understood groups of people, such as some ethnic¹⁰ minorities. Each year billions of pounds of government spending are allocated¹¹ according to estimates derived¹² from the census. Its data determine where new schools and hospitals are built, where planning permission for housing is granted and where money is spent on transport.

　　取消人口普查，转而赞成对部分人口进行滚动调查的想法是愚蠢的。一次完整的计数可以提供小至一条街的信息，这是连许多大规模调查都无法媲美的。人口普查也可为我们提供那些外界知之甚少的群体的详细数据，如一些少数族群。政府依据人口普查得出的估算来决策每年数十亿英镑的支出应拨向何处。这一数据决定何处应建立新学校和医院，何处应许可进行住房规划，以及何处应加强交通建设。

　　The census is hardly perfect. It is expensive—the 2011 edition cost around 480m (800m). Its findings go out of date quickly. And it is increasingly difficult to conduct, as a rising proportion of people do not fill in their forms. In many European countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, the authorities use administrative¹³ data collected by public bodies in place of a traditional census.

　　人口普查并不十全十美。它花费高昂——2011年版成本约为4亿8千万英镑（8亿美元）。调查的结果也很快就成为了明日黄花。由于不填写表格的人越来越多，它的可操作性也越来越难了。在很多欧洲国家，包括德国和荷兰，行政当局选择采用公共机构提供的管理数据以代替传统的人口调查。

　　In Britain that would be tricky¹⁴. The nation lacks a central population register or an identity-card system that would allow administrative data to be linked up. By northern European standards, Britain also has lots of irregular migrants who have little interaction with the state. That makes a full count unavoidable. Yet the authorities should still be investing in working out how to use administrative data better, argues Chris Skinner, a statistician at the London School of Economics. That would help to provide a check on the accuracy of census and survey data, as well as providing timelier and more precise estimates in between census years.

　　在英国这将比较棘手。该国缺乏一个中央人口统计处或一个身份认证系统来将管理数据统一起来。按照北欧的标准，英国也有很多几乎不与政府来往的非正规移民。这使得完整的人口普查不可避免。然而伦敦统计学院的统计学家克里斯·斯金纳表示，当局应继续研究该如何更好地利用管理数据。这将为人口普查和数据调查的准确性把关，同时也可为两次人口普查间的年份提供及时并更精确的估计。

　　The ONS agrees—and it is researching the possibility of using government data better. The trouble is that doing so will mean spending money, which is precisely¹⁵ what ministers wanted to stop doing when they pushed the ONS into thinking about cancelling the census. Data users will be hoping that they have a change of heart. If not, Britain might be stuck with inadequate¹⁶ numbers for decades to come.

　　国家统计局对此表示同意——它正在研究更好地利用政府数据的可能性。问题是这么做意味着要花钱，这正违背了部长们要求国家统计局取消人口普查的初衷。数据使用者们希望他们能换位思考一下。否则英国将在未来几十年无法摆脱人口总数不准确的困境。

　　1.turn out 结果是；关掉；制造

　　例句:Sometimes things don't turn out the way we think they're going to.

　　有时事情并不像我们认为的那样发展。

　　2.ask to 邀请…参加…

　　例句:Ask to speak to the sister on the ward⁴.

　　请求和病房里的护士长说话。

　　3.work out 算出；解决

　　例句:The three parties will meet next month to work out remaining differences.

　　三方将在下个月会面，以解决余下的分歧。

　　4.want to 想去；想要

　　例句: "I want to send a telegram." — "Fine, to whom?"

　　“我想发份电报。”—“好的，发给谁？”

1 con   

n.反对的观点，反对者，反对票，肺病；vt.精读，学习，默记；adv.反对地，从反面；adj.欺诈的

参考例句：

• We must be fair and consider the reason pro and con.我们必须公平考虑赞成和反对的理由。
• The motion is adopted non con.因无人投反对票，协议被通过。

2 census   

n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查

参考例句：

• A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
• The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。

3 straightforward   

adj.正直的，坦率的；易懂的，简单的

参考例句：

• A straightforward talk is better than a flowery speech.巧言不如直说。
• I must insist on your giving me a straightforward answer.我一定要你给我一个直截了当的回答。

4 ward   

n.守卫，监护，病房，行政区，由监护人或法院保护的人（尤指儿童）；vt.守护，躲开

参考例句：

• The hospital has a medical ward and a surgical ward.这家医院有内科病房和外科病房。
• During the evening picnic,I'll carry a torch to ward off the bugs.傍晚野餐时，我要点根火把，抵挡蚊虫。

5 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。

6 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

7 scrap   

n.碎片；废料；v.废弃，报废

参考例句：

• A man comes round regularly collecting scrap.有个男人定时来收废品。
• Sell that car for scrap.把那辆汽车当残品卖了吧。

8 scrapping   

刮，切除坯体余泥

参考例句：

• He was always scrapping at school. 他在学校总打架。
• These two dogs are always scrapping. 这两条狗总是打架。

9 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

10 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

11 allocated   

adj. 分配的 动词allocate的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The Ford Foundation allocated millions of dollars for cancer research. 福特基金会拨款数百万美元用于癌症研究。
• More funds will now be allocated to charitable organizations. 现在会拨更多的资金给慈善组织。

12 derived   

vi.起源；由来；衍生；导出v.得到( derive的过去式和过去分词 )；（从…中）得到获得；源于；（从…中）提取

参考例句：

• Many English words are derived from Latin and Greek. 英语很多词源出于拉丁文和希腊文。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He derived his enthusiasm for literature from his father. 他对文学的爱好是受他父亲的影响。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 administrative   

adj.行政的，管理的

参考例句：

• The administrative burden must be lifted from local government.必须解除地方政府的行政负担。
• He regarded all these administrative details as beneath his notice.他认为行政管理上的这些琐事都不值一顾。

14 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

15 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

16 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。