经济学人:物流公司 陷入困境

 　　Bussiness 商业

　　Logistics firms: Boxed in 物流公司：陷入困境

　　The return of borders poses a challenge to the soaring parcel-delivery business. 贸易壁垒的回归对迅猛发展的快递业提出了挑战

　　During the day, Leipzig’s airport is quiet. 白天，莱比锡机场很冷清。

　　It is at night that the airfield¹ comes to life. 到了晚间停机坪上便恢复了生气。

　　Next to the runway a yellow warehouse² serves as the global sorting hub for DHL, a delivery firm owned by Deutsche Post of Germany. 跑道旁的一个黄色仓库是德国邮政旗下快递公司DHL的全球分拣中心。

　　A huge extension, which opened in October, means it can sort 150,000 parcels each hour, says Ken³ Allen, DHL’s CEO. 这个分拣中心经过了一次大规模扩建，于去年10月投入使用。DHL的CEO肯·艾伦（Ken Allen）说，扩建后的中心每小时能够处理15万个包裹。

　　It was built as business soared. 扩建是在快递业务飙升时进行的。

　　But the express-delivery industry faces a new challenge: the return of trade barriers due to the protectionist bent⁴ of Donald Trump⁵ and because of Brexit. 但如今快递业面临着一个新的挑战：由于特朗普的保护主义倾向和英国脱欧，贸易壁垒将重新回归。

　　The slower-moving shipping⁶ and air-cargo business has long been in the doldrums as a result of slow overall growth in trade in recent years. 由于近年贸易总体增长缓慢，运速较慢的航运和空运业很久以来都处于低迷状态。

　　Yet the rise of cross-border e-commerce has still meant booming business for express-delivery firms. 然而，跨境电子商务的兴起让快递公司仍然生意兴隆。

　　On January 31st UPS revealed record revenues for the fourth quarter of 2016; FedEx and DHL are expected to report similarly buoyant results next month. 1月31日，UPS公布的2016年第四季度收入创下新高，预计联邦快递和DHL下月也会公布类似令人振奋的业绩。

　　Since 2008 half of the increase in express-delivery volumes has come from shoppers buying items online from another country. 自2008年以来，快递增长量的一半都来自于“海淘”买家。

　　Falling trade barriers have greatly helped them. 贸易壁垒的降低极大地促进了快递业的发展。

　　When DHL and FedEx were getting going, in the 1970s, there was little demand for international express deliveries. 20世纪70年代DHL和FedEx刚起步时，人们对国际快递的需求还很少。

　　Packages often got stuck in customs for weeks and were heavily taxed. 包裹经常被卡在海关长达数周，还要支付高额的关税。

　　The expansion of free-trade areas, lower tariffs⁷ and the internet brought years of growth. 自由贸易区扩张、关税下调以及互联网的发展为该行业带来了持续多年的增长。

　　But after Mr Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on goods from China and Mexico, together with the indication last month from Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister,  然而，特朗普威胁要对中国和墨西哥的货物提高关税，英国首相特雷莎·梅上月也透露

　　that the country will leave the EU’s customs union, there are widespread fears that the favourable⁸ tailwinds enjoyed by the industry for decades are gone. 英国将退出欧盟关税同盟，这让人们普遍担心令快递业顺利发展几十年的利好条件已消失不见。

　　“It’s all a real nightmare,” groans⁹ David Jinks of ParcelHero, a British parcel broker¹⁰ which works with DHL, FedEx and UPS. 与DHL、联邦快递和UPS都有合作的英国快递代理公司ParcelHero的大卫·金克斯（David Jinks）哀叹道：“这是一个真正的噩梦。”

　　Start with Brexit. 先从英国脱欧说起。

　　More physical border checks between Britain and Europe would do little direct damage. 英国与欧洲彼此间边境检查的增多并不会造成多少直接损害。

　　Most packages arriving in Britain have already been checked for drugs and dangerous items. 大多数运抵英国的包裹都已经过毒品和危险品检查。

　　Goods from outside the EU go through customs 95% of the time without any inspection¹¹ or delay. 来自欧盟以外的货物在95%的情况下不经过任何检查或延误就可通关。

　　Instead, post-Brexit costs will probably come from long wrangles¹² over which of 19,000 customs codes should be applied¹³ to a consignment¹⁴. 相反，脱欧后物流成本的增加可能缘于对某批货物应适用19,000条海关编码中的哪一条而争论不休。

　　As an example of what could happen, Halloween costumes from China often get stuck at Britain’s border  例如，可能会发生这样的情形：来自中国的万圣节服饰经常会困在英国边境，

　　while customs officials work out whether they are toys or children’s clothes, which attract different duties. 因为海关官员需要确定它们是属于玩具还是儿童服装——不同的类别对应不同的税率。

　　Such complexity¹⁵ would force delivery firms to put up their prices to customers, Mr Jinks says. 金克斯说这种复杂性将迫使快递公司向客户提高运费。

　　Sending an item from Britain to Switzerland (outside the EU) costs 150% more than it does to Italy (inside the EU). 从英国到瑞士（欧盟以外）的寄件成本要比英国到意大利（欧盟内部）的高出150%。

　　The most severe impact on business would come from higher tariffs, which would hurt demand for cross-border imports and deliveries in favour of local goods. 对快递业最为严重的影响将来自于关税的提升，这会让消费者更倾向于购买本地商品，从而抑制对境外商品和运送的需求。

　　This is where Mr Trump’s threats come into focus. 这就是令特朗普的威胁成为焦点的原因。

　　A trade war would hit the massive volume of consignments¹⁶ that DHL’s, FedEx’s and UPS’s planes carry every day in and out of America. 贸易战将严重影响DHL、联邦快递和UPS的飞机每天从美国运进运出的大量货物。

　　For the moment, a customs exemption¹⁷ exists for packages worth under $800. 目前，美国海关对价值低于800美元的包裹免税。

　　This means that higher tariffs on a Chinese watch imported in bulk into the United States,  这意味着从中国进口大批手表所需缴纳的更高关税

　　for instance, could be avoided by an American ordering direct from Alibaba, a Chinese retailer¹⁸, for delivery direct to their home. 例如美国消费者个人直接在中国零售平台阿里巴巴下单购买手表并直接寄送至其家中。

　　But if Mr Trump is serious about cutting imports, he could get rid of this exemption. 但如果特朗普当真要削减进口，他大可取消这种免税待遇。

　　It was only last March that Barack Obama increased it to $800 from the previous $200. 奥巴马去年3月才刚把之前200美元的进口免税额提高到800美元。

　　If it were lowered or eliminated by executive order, logistics-industry people would really panic. 如果特朗普以行政命令降低或取消它，物流业人士真的会惶恐不已。

　　They are putting a brave face on things. 目前他们都在强作镇定。

　　DHL’s Mr Allen has emphasised that “globalisation is here to stay”, whatever Mr Trump does. DHL的艾伦强调，无论特朗普做什么，“全球化的趋势都不会变”。

　　UPS’s boss, David Abney, hopes the president is not really against trade agreements. UPS的老板大卫·艾伯尼（David Abney）希望总统并不是真的反对贸易协议。

　　Even more telling are the actions of Fred Smith, FedEx’s founder¹⁹ and CEO. 联邦快递的创始人及CEO弗雷德·史密斯（Fred Smith）的行动更能说明问题。

　　Last week, he quietly gave up running the firm day-to-day to spend more time campaigning for free trade. 上周，他静悄悄地放下公司的日常事务，花更多的时间为倡议自由贸易奔走。

1 airfield   

n.飞机场

参考例句：

• The foreign guests were motored from the airfield to the hotel.用车把外宾从机场送到旅馆。
• The airfield was seized by enemy troops.机场被敌军占领。

2 warehouse   

n.仓库；vt.存入仓库

参考例句：

• We freighted the goods to the warehouse by truck.我们用卡车把货物运到仓库。
• The manager wants to clear off the old stocks in the warehouse.经理想把仓库里积压的存货处理掉。

3 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

4 bent   

n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的

参考例句：

• He was fully bent upon the project.他一心扑在这项计划上。
• We bent over backward to help them.我们尽了最大努力帮助他们。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

7 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

8 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

9 groans   

n.呻吟，叹息( groan的名词复数 )；呻吟般的声音v.呻吟( groan的第三人称单数 )；发牢骚；抱怨；受苦

参考例句：

• There were loud groans when he started to sing. 他刚开始歌唱时有人发出了很大的嘘声。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It was a weird old house, full of creaks and groans. 这是所神秘而可怕的旧宅，到处嘎吱嘎吱作响。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。

11 inspection   

n.检查，审查，检阅

参考例句：

• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。
• The soldiers lined up for their daily inspection by their officers.士兵们列队接受军官的日常检阅。

12 wrangles   

n.（尤指长时间的）激烈争吵，口角，吵嘴( wrangle的名词复数 )v.争吵，争论，口角( wrangle的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• We avoided wrangles and got down to business. 他们避免了争吵开始做正事。 来自辞典例句
• They hope to see politicians in exciting wrangles and to get some fun out of politics. 他们期望政治人物进行有趣的战斗，期望从政治中获得娱乐。 来自互联网

13 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

14 consignment   

n.寄售；发货；委托；交运货物

参考例句：

• This last consignment of hosiery is quite up to standard.这批新到的针织品完全符合规格。
• We have to ask you to dispatch the consignment immediately.我们得要求你立即发送该批货物。

15 complexity   

n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物

参考例句：

• Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
• The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。

16 consignments   

n.托付货物( consignment的名词复数 )；托卖货物；寄售；托运

参考例句：

• Police have seized several consignments of pornography. 警方没收了好几批运来的色情物品。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I want you to see for yourself how our consignments are cleared in London. 我要你亲自去看看我们的货物在伦敦是怎样结关的。 来自辞典例句

17 exemption   

n.豁免，免税额，免除

参考例句：

• You may be able to apply for exemption from local taxes.你可能符合资格申请免除地方税。
• These goods are subject to exemption from tax.这些货物可以免税。

18 retailer   

n.零售商(人)

参考例句：

• What are the retailer requirements?零售商会有哪些要求呢？
• The retailer has assembled a team in Shanghai to examine the question.这家零售商在上海组建了一支团队研究这个问题。

19 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。