经济学人04:The political waning of America 美国在衰落吗?

 　　Books and Arts; Book Review;

　　文艺；书评；

　　The political waning¹ of America;

　　美国在衰落吗？？？

　　Unconvincing;

　　不足为信；

　　Every Nation For Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World. By Ian Bremmer.

　　《独自为战：G零世界的赢家与败者》，作者伊恩·布雷默

　　Brazil and Turkey, once reliable backers of America's geostrategic goals, conspicuously² went their own way in 2010 when they sought to broker³ a deal with Iran over its nuclear programme, even as America pushed for new sanctions. Their new-found assertiveness⁴ was a product of both their growing economic weight and America's diminished clout⁵.

　　巴西和土耳其都曾经是美国地缘政治中可靠的盟友，但是2010年在美国已经对伊朗推行新的制裁政策时，这两个国家却追求以仲裁和和谈的形式让伊朗走出核危机，这标志着它们开始奉行相对独立的外交政策。这种新的魄力是它们经济增长的结果，也是美国影响力下降的结果。

　　This is an example of what is in store for the world, predicts Ian Bremmer in “Every Nation For Itself”. Countries like Brazil and Turkey want the status of a bigger global role. But they “balk at assuming the risks and burdens” that global leadership entails⁶. Ideally a web of multilateral institutions and laws would impose order and hold wayward countries in line. But with America unable to afford, or unwilling⁷ to exercise, global leadership, and China still not ready to assume its responsibilities, there is no one to enforce these rules.

　　这就是伊恩·布雷默在他新著《各自为战》中所预言的世界。像巴西和土耳其这样的国家想要在全球政治中扮演更重要的角色。但是“他们想要避免领导全球所必须承担的风险和负担”。理想主义的观念认为，一个多元化的组织网络和法律可以带来秩序，让那些不驯服的国家服从。但是随着美国没有能力或者不愿意承担全球领导的角色，而中国目前还没有做好准备承担责任，没有一个国家可以来强制执行这些规则。

　　In the 1960s President Lyndon Johnson could divert a fifth of America's wheat crop to alleviate⁸ starvation in India. That could not happen now, when biofuels are aggravating⁹ food shortages and exporters hoard¹⁰ supplies for their own people. Global warming, nuclear proliferation and internet regulation are all harder to address, with the G7 and G20 supplanted¹¹ by what the author calls the “G-Zero”.

　　20世纪60年代，总统林登·约翰逊可以将美国小麦产量的五分之一用于缓解印度的饥荒。现在这根本不可能发生，因为生物燃料的发展正在造成并加剧粮食短缺现象，而且出口商们正为了他们自己的人民储存粮食。随着G7和G20被被作者称为G-0的世界所代替，全球变暖、核扩散以及网络管理等都将是更难处理的问题。

　　Mr Bremmer, founder¹² of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, specialises in big thoughts. His previous books tackled the path that developing countries travel from autocracy¹³ to democracy, and the growth of state-sponsored capitalism¹⁴. “Every Nation For Itself” enters a more crowded field. Innumerable books and essays have already plumbed¹⁵ the consequences of America's loss, or possible loss, of global leadership, with the best providing either fresh insight or original reporting. Unfortunately, “Every Nation For Itself” does neither. It devotes endless pages to describing disparate arenas¹⁶ of global conflict, from cyberspace¹⁷ to water shortages, but these are largely a rehash of headlines and conventional wisdom. Their only purpose is to provide Mr Bremmer with repeated opportunities to assert that “in a G-Zero world” such conflicts can no longer be solved from above.

　　布雷默是一家政治风险咨询机构欧亚集团的创始人，该机构专门从事大的战略思想研究。他的前一本书主要追述了发展中国家从专制独裁到民主的转变以及国有资本主义的增长。而这本《各自为战》进入了一个更加拥挤的领域。已经有无数本专著和论文在探究美国衰落或者可能衰落可能会带来的结果，其中好的著作要么有创新的视角要么在原始材料方面比较突出。但是很不幸，《各自为战》这两方面都没有做到。作者花了大量的篇幅描述全球问题的冲突，从网络空间到水资源短缺，但是这些论述大部分只是对已经报道过的文章和传统观点进行了重新处理。它们唯一的用处只是给布雷默机会让他重复了一个观点，即在G零世界中这些冲突都不可能自上而下得到解决。

　　Mr Bremmer is certainly right that a world without America's global leadership is a more dangerous place, but he overstates his case. Even when it stood alone as the world's superpower, America struggled to impose its will. In 1993 it pulled its troops out of Somalia when murderous warlords foiled its attempts to deliver food relief to the starving country. The global groups that Mr Bremmer imagines once ran the world were seldom that effective. The G7 occasionally influenced the direction of the dollar or the relations between rich countries and the emerging markets, but more often it issued anodyne¹⁸, forgettable communiqués.

　　当然，布雷默认为一个失去美国领导的世界将会更加危险，在这一点上他是正确的，但是关于这一点他却有所夸大了。即使美国独霸世界，美国也很难强制执行它的意志。1993年，当时残忍的军阀阻止美国将粮食救援输送到饥饿的国家时，美国将军队撤出了索马里。可见布雷默所认为的曾经掌控全球的各个团体事实上并没有那么有效。G7峰会偶尔会影响美元的方向或者富裕国家与新兴市场之间的关系，但是更多情况下，它只是发布一些类似于止痛剂一样的公告，那些公告也很快就被会被人们抛诸脑后。

　　Neither America nor the multilateral institutions are as impotent today as Mr Bremmer claims. Brazil and Turkey failed in their negotiation¹⁹ over Iran's nuclear programme. The fact that Iran has been dragged back to the negotiating table and Myanmar is veering²⁰ back towards democracy contradict Mr Bremmer's thesis that sanctions are becoming ever less effective. He is right that the World Bank and the International Monetary²¹ Fund have been weakened by China's growing power. But the opposite is true for the World Trade Organisation²², whose clout has been enhanced significantly by the fact that both America and China abide²³ by its rulings. “Every Nation For Itself” is a useful summary of current events. But as a guide to a complex world, it falls short.

　　其实目前不管是美国还是多国体系都不像布雷默所认为的那样虚弱无力。巴西和土耳其在他们的伊朗科项目问题的谈判中失败了。事实上， 伊朗已经从谈判桌上撤退，缅甸正在向民主的方向转变，这些事实都驳斥了布雷默认为制裁变得无效的观点。他认为世界银行和国际货币基金组织由于中国力量的崛起受到了削弱，这一点是正确的。但是另一方面由于美国和中国都支持世界贸易组织的裁决，所以世贸组织的影响力显著地加强了。《各自为战》对当前重大事务做了很好的总结，但是并没有对当前复杂世界形势提出有益的分析和指导。

1 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

2 conspicuously   

ad.明显地，惹人注目地

参考例句：

• France remained a conspicuously uneasy country. 法国依然是个明显不太平的国家。
• She figured conspicuously in the public debate on the issue. 她在该问题的公开辩论中很引人注目。

3 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。

4 assertiveness   

n.过分自信

参考例句：

• Her assertiveness was starting to be seen as arrogance. 她的自信已开始被认为是自负了。
• Role playing is an important element in assertiveness training. 在果敢自信训练班上，角色扮演是个重要内容。

5 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

6 entails   

使…成为必要( entail的第三人称单数 )； 需要； 限定继承； 使必需

参考例句：

• The job entails a lot of hard work. 这工作需要十分艰苦的努力。
• This job entails a lot of hard work. 这项工作需要十分努力。

7 unwilling   

adj.不情愿的

参考例句：

• The natives were unwilling to be bent by colonial power.土著居民不愿受殖民势力的摆布。
• His tightfisted employer was unwilling to give him a raise.他那吝啬的雇主不肯给他加薪。

8 alleviate   

v.减轻，缓和，缓解(痛苦等)

参考例句：

• The doctor gave her an injection to alleviate the pain.医生给她注射以减轻疼痛。
• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。

9 aggravating   

adj.恼人的，讨厌的

参考例句：

• How aggravating to be interrupted! 被打扰，多令人生气呀！
• Diesel exhaust is particularly aggravating to many susceptible individuals. 许多体质敏感的人尤其反感柴油废气。

10 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

11 supplanted   

把…排挤掉，取代( supplant的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In most offices, the typewriter has now been supplanted by the computer. 当今许多办公室里，打字机已被电脑取代。
• The prime minister was supplanted by his rival. 首相被他的政敌赶下台了。

12 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

13 autocracy   

n.独裁政治，独裁政府

参考例句：

• The revolution caused the overthrow of the autocracy.这场革命导致了独裁政体的结束。
• Many poor countries are abandoning autocracy.很多贫穷国家都在放弃独裁统治。

14 capitalism   

n.资本主义

参考例句：

• The essence of his argument is that capitalism cannot succeed.他的论点的核心是资本主义不能成功。
• Capitalism began to develop in Russia in the 19th century.十九世纪资本主义在俄国开始发展。

15 plumbed   

v.经历( plumb的过去式和过去分词 )；探究；用铅垂线校正；用铅锤测量

参考例句：

• Magda had plumbed her own heart for answers. 玛格达在自己心中搜寻答案。 来自辞典例句
• In the sub-zero weather, their exhausts plumbed white in the grey streets. 在严寒天气，他们的排气管在灰色的街道上吐着缕缕白烟。 来自辞典例句

16 arenas   

表演场地( arena的名词复数 )； 竞技场； 活动或斗争的场所或场面； 圆形运动场

参考例句：

• Demolition derbies are large-scale automobile rodeos that take place in big arenas. 撞车比赛指的是在很大的竞技场上举行的大型汽车驾驶技术表演。
• Are there areas of privacy in the most public of arenas? 在绝大部分公开的场合中存在需要保护隐私的领域吗？

17 cyberspace   

n.虚拟信息空间，网络空间，计算机化世界

参考例句：

• She travels in cyberspace by sending messages to friends around the world.她利用电子空间给世界各地的朋友们发送信件。
• The teens spend more time in cyberspace than in the real world of friends and family.青少年花费在电脑上的时间比他们和真正的朋友及家人在一起的时间要多。

18 anodyne   

n.解除痛苦的东西，止痛剂

参考例句：

• It was their delight,their folly,their anodyne,their intellectual stimulant.这是他们的人生乐趣，他们的一时荒唐，他们的止痛药，他们的脑力刺激剂。
• Friendship is not only the condiment but also the anodyne of life.友谊是人生的调味品，也是人生的止痛药。

19 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

20 veering   

n.改变的；犹豫的；顺时针方向转向；特指使船尾转向上风来改变航向v.（尤指交通工具）改变方向或路线( veer的现在分词 )；（指谈话内容、人的行为或观点）突然改变；（指风） （在北半球按顺时针方向、在南半球按逆时针方向）逐渐转向；风向顺时针转

参考例句：

• Anyone veering too close to the convoys risks being shot. 任何人改变方向，过于接近车队就有遭枪击的风险。 来自互联网
• The little boat kept veering from its course in such a turbulent river. 小船在这湍急的河中总是改变方向。 来自互联网

21 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

22 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

23 abide   

vi.遵守；坚持；vt.忍受

参考例句：

• You must abide by the results of your mistakes.你必须承担你的错误所造成的后果。
• If you join the club,you have to abide by its rules.如果你参加俱乐部，你就得遵守它的规章。