经济学人23:疾病传播 细菌与金钱

 　　Books and Arts; Book Review;The spread of disease;Germs and money;

　　文艺；书评；疾病传播;细菌与金钱;

　　Where and when will the next pandemic emerge?

　　下一次大范围流行病将于何时在哪里爆发？

　　Contagion¹: How Commerce Has Spread Disease. By Mark Harrison.

　　《疫病蔓延：商业行为是如何传播疾病的》，马克·哈里森著。

　　Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic. By David Quammen.

　　《溢出效应：动物传染病和下一场人类流行病》，大卫·奎曼著。

　　On October 2nd a British traveller, flying home to Glasgow from Afghanistan, began to feel ill. Within hours he was diagnosed with Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever, a virus nasty enough for him to be put onto a military transport aircraft for transfer to an isolation² hospital in London. Less than 24 hours later he was dead.

　　10月2号，一名英国旅行者从阿富汗乘飞机返回故乡格拉斯哥。在旅途中，他突然感到有些不适。几个小时以后他被诊断出患有克里米亚-刚果出血热——这种疾病的病毒特别危险，足以让他被送上一架军用运输机并转移到伦敦的一家隔离医院里。他没撑过24小时就病发身亡了。

　　This outbreak, on top of another death last month in Saudi Arabia from a previously³ unknown virus, a cousin of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome⁴ (SARS), has set global health agencies on edge. Ten years ago the deaths of a couple of travellers from foreign parts might not have been news at all. But the fright of the SARS outbreak in 2003 has left a lasting⁵ impression, and scientists and public-health officials now tend to see any putative⁶ disease threat through its lens.

　　上个月，在沙特阿拉伯有一种此前未知的病毒（严重紧急呼吸综合症 （SARS）的类似病毒）导致一人死亡，再加上本次克里米亚-刚果出血热的爆发，这两起事件让全球各卫生机构紧张起来了。如果放在十年以前，从国外回来的几个旅行者暴毙可能根本算不上什么新闻。但对2003年 SARS 爆发的恐惧给人们留下了持久的印象，科学家和公共卫生官员如今往往对任何假定的疾病威胁都不敢轻忽。

　　It is refreshing⁷, therefore, to take a wider look at the problem of infectious disease. Two recent books take very different approaches to the narrative⁸ of bacteria and viruses, prions and protists that humanity has known for centuries and the brand new bugs⁹ that, by opportunistic accident, hop¹⁰ between species and start a new evolutionary¹¹ tussle¹². Mark Harrison, director of Oxford¹³ University's Wellcome Unit for the History of Medicine, charts a chronological¹⁴ path through the history of such diseases. David Quammen, an American science journalist, picks up the story of contemporary blights¹⁵, exploring how the next pandemic will be detected.

　　因此，如果能从更广泛的角度来看待传染病的问题，的确让人耳目一新。最近有两本新书面世，采取了截然不同的方法来叙述人类发现于几个世纪以前的细菌、病毒、朊毒体和原生生物。两本书中还提到了一些全新的微生物——它们具有“机会致病性”，活跃在各个物种之间，并在进化方面引发了一场新的争论。马克·哈里森是牛津大学维尔康医学史研究所负责人，他针对历史上的此类疾病绘制了一张按时间顺序排列的进程图表。美国科学新闻记者大卫·奎门报道了当代枯萎病的情况，对人类会在什么时候发现下一次大范围流行病进行了研究。

　　“Quarantines have become tariffs¹⁶ by another name,” Mr Harrison states at the beginning of “Contagion”, which moves with scholarly deliberateness from 12th-century Europe through to the globalised early 20th century, to demonstrate how modern-day quarantines evolved. Commerce was already associated with infection during the Black Death, though it would be hundreds of years before rats were singled out as its carrier, and the first quarantines followed soon after. When the plague reappeared in Britain and on the continent in the 1660s, European countries used tit-for-tat quarantines to keep out competitors, skim fees from merchants, reassure¹⁷ trading partners and punish those who quarantined them.

　　《疫病蔓延》一书用学术性的从容笔调从12世纪的欧洲一直写到全球化的20世纪早期，展示了现代隔离检疫的发展过程。哈里森在书的开头写道：“隔离检疫已经成了另一种名义上的关税。”几百年前，在黑死病肆虐期间，人们曾经认为老鼠是唯一的带菌者——但当时的疾病感染已经和商业行为联系了起来，而且其后不久就实施了人类历史上首次隔离检疫。17世纪60年代，当英国乃至整个欧洲大陆再次出现这场瘟疫的时候，欧洲国家采取了针锋相对的隔离检疫措施来阻拦竞争对手、从商人手中捞取钱财、消除贸易伙伴的疑虑并且惩治那些曾经对欧洲实施隔离检疫的国家。

　　Mr Harrison follows the loosening of quarantines as the tides of free trade rose in the mid-19th century. A series of international conferences (and another bad bout¹⁸ of plague) finally gave birth to the first international health regulations in 1907 with the object of smoothing out commerce. On both sides of the Atlantic, quarantine was increasingly replaced by better intelligence and proactive measures.

　　哈里森叙述道：19世纪中期，随着自由贸易浪潮的兴起，隔离检疫措施有了一些松动。一系列国际会议（以及另一场瘟疫的猛烈侵袭）最终促使各国在1907年制定了首批国际卫生规程，旨在解决商业贸易难题。大西洋两岸的国家逐渐采用更完善的疾病情报工作和主动防御措施来代替隔离检疫行为。

　　But current quarantine regulations are not immune to politicisation, and it is in making this point that Mr Harrison's book is most illuminating¹⁹, though this forms a small part of the overall narrative. In defending “biosecurity”, governments have tended to react defensively to diseases like the H5N1 bird flu and mad-cow disease (or BSE), disrupting not just bilateral²⁰ trade but international markets as well. For instance in the 2009 swine-flu pandemic, Russia, China and others banned pork imports from North America and Mexico despite protests by the World Trade Organisation²¹ and the European Union that there was no evidence the virus could travel in meat. Disease scares still provide an appealing cover for trade protectionism.

　　但现行的隔离检疫规程仍然难免要受到政治化的影响。尽管哈里森在通篇叙述中对此着墨不多，但正是对这一方面的论述让本书极具启发性。在保护“生物安全”的时候，各国政府对于 H5N1 禽流感和疯牛病（或称 BSE）等疾病往往采取防御性的反应，不仅中断了双边贸易，还给国际市场带来了负面影响。比如，2009年猪流感大范围肆虐的时候，俄罗斯、中国等国家曾经禁止从北美和墨西哥进口猪肉——尽管当时世界卫生组织和欧盟抗议称并没有证据表明猪流感病毒可以通过食用肉类传播。对疾病的恐慌仍然能够为贸易保护主义提供有利的掩护。

　　Mr Quammen's book, “Spillover”, is a scientific narrative rather than an historical one, focusing on zoonotic infections, those that pass from animals to humans. This category makes up nearly two-thirds of all human infectious diseases, including rabies, Ebola and malaria²². The three most recent outbreaks—of SARS, bird flu and swine flu—indicate that the next pandemic is likely to be zoonotic in origin.

　　奎曼的《溢出效应》与其说是采取了历史性的叙述方式，不如说是从科学角度进行了描述。本书主要论述动物传染病在人类身上引发的感染。在所有人类传染疾病方面，这个范畴占了将近三分之二，其中包括狂犬病、埃博拉病毒和疟疾。历史上最近三次的传染病爆发（SARS、禽流感和猪流感）暗示下一场大范围流行病可能也会起源于动物传染病。

　　Mr Quammen analyses individual diseases, searching for patterns in their outbreaks. Most of the chapters focus on a single infection, and he ranges with ease over decades and continents, drawing upon years of interviews and field trips with scientists. Mr Quammen is a lively writer and a good detective, tracing diseases from their first appearance back to their origins—in some cases, still unsettled.

　　奎曼分析了一些疾病个例，从它们的爆发情况中寻找规律。本书大部分章节主要描写单一的某种疾病感染。凭借多年的探访经验以及和科学家们一起做的实地考察，奎曼游刃有余地涉及了几十年来各个大洲的感染情况。他是一位笔触生动的作家，也像是一名神探，从疾病首次出现时追溯到它们的爆发源头——某些疾病究竟起源于何处仍然悬而未决。

　　Familiar diseases are given a fresh gloss²³, while even the most devoted²⁴ hypochondriac will find some new ones to worry about. (Ever heard of parrot fever?) One of the most surprising chapters is on HIV, about which much has already been written. Mr Quammen traces the various strains of HIV back to the beginning of the 20th century, when the virus is likely to have moved from a chimpanzee into a human. With judicious²⁵ use of a fictional²⁶ narrative he then draws the story forward, bringing in some startling new evidence for how HIV was able to spread so widely.

　　奎曼对人们熟知的疾病进行了全新的阐述，即使是最坚定的疑病者看了这本书之后也会产生另外的焦虑（听说过鹦鹉热吗？）本书最让人惊奇的章节之一是关于 HIV 的——针对这种病毒已经出版了很多相关资料。奎曼将几种不同类型的 HIV 追溯到20世纪初：该病毒可能是在当时由黑猩猩传染给人类的。然后，他审慎而明智地采用一种小说般的叙述方式将故事向前推进，针对 HIV 如何能够如此广泛传播提出了一些惊人的新证据。

　　To his credit, Mr Quammen does not shy away from the lurid²⁷ question of the “next big one” that will be on readers' minds from the start. But he folds it into the story with due scientific rigour. From one disease to the next he asks, “Why hasn't this gone big?” In the case of SARS, for instance, the answer may be mostly sheer luck. Neither quarantines nor eradication²⁸ programmes, nor even disease detectives, will be enough to guard mankind against the next outbreak. But wise precautions may limit collateral²⁹ damage as humanity tries to stave off the next big one.

　　读者从一开始关心的就是“下一场大瘟疫”将在什么时候到来。值得赞扬的是，奎曼并没有回避这个耸人听闻的问题。但他用一种恰当的科学严谨性把这个问题融入了叙述之中。每谈到一种疾病，他都会问道：“为什么这种疾病没有大范围流行？”比如拿 SARS 来举例——答案可能通常被解读为纯粹的运气。不管是进行隔离检疫，还是实行病毒根除方案，抑或是派遣疾病调查员，都不足以帮助人类抵御下一次流行病的爆发。但如今人类正在试图延缓“下一场大瘟疫”的到来，此时采取理智的预防措施或许能减轻这场疫病的附带损害。

1 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

2 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

3 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

4 syndrome   

n.综合病症；并存特性

参考例句：

• The Institute says that an unidentified virus is to blame for the syndrome. 该研究所表示,引起这种综合症的是一种尚未确认的病毒。
• Results indicated that 11 fetuses had Down syndrome. 结果表明有11个胎儿患有唐氏综合征。

5 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

6 putative   

adj.假定的

参考例句：

• There have been many attempts to track down the putative Loch Ness monster.人们为追踪假定存在的尼斯湖水怪做了许多努力。
• He is the putative father of this child.他是这孩子的推定的父亲。

7 refreshing   

adj.使精神振作的，使人清爽的，使人喜欢的

参考例句：

• I find it'so refreshing to work with young people in this department.我发现和这一部门的青年一起工作令人精神振奋。
• The water was cold and wonderfully refreshing.水很涼，特别解乏提神。

8 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

9 bugs   

adj.疯狂的，发疯的n.窃听器( bug的名词复数 )；病菌；虫子；[计算机]（制作软件程序所产生的意料不到的）错误

参考例句：

• All programs have bugs and need endless refinement. 所有的程序都有漏洞，都需要不断改进。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The sacks of rice were swarming with bugs. 一袋袋的米里长满了虫子。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 hop   

n.单脚跳，跳跃；vi.单脚跳，跳跃；着手做某事；vt.跳跃，跃过

参考例句：

• The children had a competition to see who could hop the fastest.孩子们举行比赛，看谁单足跳跃最快。
• How long can you hop on your right foot?你用右脚能跳多远？

11 evolutionary   

adj.进化的；演化的，演变的；[生]进化论的

参考例句：

• Life has its own evolutionary process.生命有其自身的进化过程。
• These are fascinating questions to be resolved by the evolutionary studies of plants.这些十分吸引人的问题将在研究植物进化过程中得以解决。

12 tussle   

n.&v.扭打，搏斗，争辩

参考例句：

• They began to tussle with each other for the handgun.他们互相扭打起来，抢夺那支手枪。
• We are engaged in a legal tussle with a large pharmaceutical company.我们正同一家大制药公司闹法律纠纷。

13 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

14 chronological   

adj.按年月顺序排列的，年代学的

参考例句：

• The paintings are exhibited in chronological sequence.这些画是按创作的时间顺序展出的。
• Give me the dates in chronological order.把日期按年月顺序给我。

15 blights   

使凋萎( blight的第三人称单数 )； 使颓丧； 损害； 妨害

参考例句：

• The crops suffered from frequent blights. 农作物经常遭受病虫害。
• New England was accustomed to didacticism in its literature, and unmitigated didacticism blights the novel. 新英格兰习惯于在文学里说教，可是一味说教，小说就要完蛋。

16 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

17 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

18 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

19 illuminating   

a.富于启发性的，有助阐明的

参考例句：

• We didn't find the examples he used particularly illuminating. 我们觉得他采用的那些例证启发性不是特别大。
• I found his talk most illuminating. 我觉得他的话很有启发性。

20 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。

21 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

22 malaria   

n.疟疾

参考例句：

• He had frequent attacks of malaria.他常患疟疾。
• Malaria is a kind of serious malady.疟疾是一种严重的疾病。

23 gloss   

n.光泽，光滑；虚饰；注释；vt.加光泽于；掩饰

参考例句：

• John tried in vain to gloss over his faults.约翰极力想掩饰自己的缺点，但是没有用。
• She rubbed up the silver plates to a high gloss.她把银盘擦得很亮。

24 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

25 judicious   

adj.明智的，明断的，能作出明智决定的

参考例句：

• We should listen to the judicious opinion of that old man.我们应该听取那位老人明智的意见。
• A judicious parent encourages his children to make their own decisions.贤明的父亲鼓励儿女自作抉择。

26 fictional   

adj.小说的，虚构的

参考例句：

• The names of the shops are entirely fictional.那些商店的名字完全是虚构的。
• The two authors represent the opposite poles of fictional genius.这两位作者代表了天才小说家两个极端。

27 lurid   

adj.可怕的；血红的；苍白的

参考例句：

• The paper gave all the lurid details of the murder.这份报纸对这起凶杀案耸人听闻的细节描写得淋漓尽致。
• The lurid sunset puts a red light on their faces.血红一般的夕阳映红了他们的脸。

28 eradication   

n.根除

参考例句：

• The eradication of an established infestation is not easy. 根除昆虫蔓延是不容易的。
• This is often required for intelligent control and eradication. 这经常需要灵巧的控制与消除。

29 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。