经济学人139:美国和南亚 坏到底的三角关系

　　America and South Asia
美国和南亚
Infernal triangle
坏到底的三角关系
A history of America's tangled¹ dealings with India and Pakistan
美国应付印巴关系—乱如麻的历史
A friendly wave from Mr Sharif
谢里夫挥舞着手臂以示友好
Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink² and Back.By Bruce Riedel.
书名：《逃离浩劫：美印巴三国又退到了悬崖边上》
乱如麻的历史.jpg
THE recent election of a new government in Pakistan led by Nawaz Sharif seems to bode³ well for an easing of tensions on the subcontinent. When Mr Sharif was last in office, in 1999, he achieved a breakthrough in relations with India. That, however, was soon followed by the most recent of the four wars the two countries have fought. Undaunted, he says again that he wants to make friends with India.
目前由纳瓦兹谢里夫领导的巴基斯坦展开了新一轮政府大选，这次大选似乎很好地预示了南亚次大陆紧张局势有缓解的趋势。上一次担任总理一职还是在1999年，谢里夫当时在处理与印度关系上取得突破性进展；虽然成果很快就由印巴四次战争所取代。如今谢里夫毫不气馁的再一次表示要同印度做朋友。
Five years ago, the last time a new Pakistani government took over, it too promised a new era in relations. That came to naught⁴ when a terrorist onslaught on the city of Mumbai was carried out by Pakistanis with, the evidence suggests, the help of Pakistan's spy service.
五年前上一届巴基斯坦新政府刚刚掌权时，政府同样承诺开启印巴关系新纪元。随着孟买遭到恐怖分子的猛烈攻击，随着有关证据显示袭击是巴基斯坦情报机关提供帮助，巴国人策划实施，一切都化为泡影。
In his 2009 book, “Deadly Embrace”, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst⁵ long at the centre of American decision-making about South Asia, told the unhappy story of America's relations with Pakistan. From the Pakistani side, it was a tale of repeated betrayal by a fickle⁶ ally. For the Americans it was one of constant double-dealing from a partner that later could not be trusted with an advance warning of the raid that killed Osama bin⁷ Laden⁸ in 2011.
布鲁斯里德尔之前一直在美国决策中心南亚分部任中央情报局分析员。2009年，里德尔出版《致命的拥抱》，书中讲述了关于美巴不尽如人意的关系。从巴国角度看，其实就是一个善变的盟友反复无常上演背叛的故事。从美国的角度看，则是一个伙伴不断的做一些背信弃义的事情；之后，2011年美国连刺杀本拉登的消息都没有提前向巴方通告。
“Avoiding Armageddon”, his new book, adds the other two sides of the triangle: the India-Pakistan saga⁹ of wars, near- wars and uncertain peaces, and America's scratchy relations with India. Of course, the main obstacle for India has been America's close ties with Pakistan. These present American diplomacy¹⁰ with one of its trickiest¹¹ balancing acts. Pakistan will remain an important ally as American troops pull out of Afghanistan in large numbers before 2015. Yet, in Mr Riedel's blunt summary: “America and Pakistan are on opposite sides in the Afghan civil war.”
里德尔的新书《逃离浩劫》将三角关系的另两边加了进来：印巴长期以来繁冗的战事、几次接近战争的边缘和不确定的和平；美印之间棘手的关系。诚然，印度眼里的“沙子”正是美巴之间密切的关系。这些恰恰展示了美国人技术含量颇高的外交平衡手段。2015年美军从阿富汗撤军之前，巴基斯坦人仍旧是美国重要的盟友。不过，里德尔毫不掩饰的指出：“美巴双方之于阿富汗内战的态度是完全对立的。”
America has also invested heavily in building close ties with India, as a kindred democratic spirit and a counterweight to a rising China. As Mr Riedel points out, Barack Obama is not the first president to try to “have it both ways” in pursuing good relations with both India and Pakistan. Mr Riedel also recalls that American presidential efforts have “consistently failed”.
因为印度与美国有相同的民主理念，可以作为制衡飞速发展中国的棋子，美国同样花了大力气建立密切的美印关系。里德尔指出，对于美印和美巴关系，奥巴马并不是美国历史上第一位试图“同时拉拢”的总统。同时他还回忆说美国总统的这些努力总是在“一如既往的失败”。
So America is in a weak position to influence one of the world's most dangerous potential conflicts. If nuclear war is ever to be fought, India and Pakistan are the most likely battlefields. India showed remarkable¹² restraint after the 2008 Mumbai attack. It would find it hard to do so again. Pakistan would lose a conventional war with India, so it might be tempted¹³ to use its nuclear arsenal¹⁴, which it is expanding fast.
这样说来，美国即是在以一个弱势的角色，想去影响世界上最危险的潜在冲突。如果世界爆发核战争，印巴绝对是第一战场。印度在2008年孟买遭袭后显出了异乎寻常的自制力。但是，如果我们希望印度继续克己，当真难上加难。巴基斯坦和印度开战，绝对不会拥有打常规战争的机会，所以巴国也会动用自己的核武器储备，动用本国扩充迅猛的核武储备。
Mr Riedel, like most analysts¹⁵, is better at describing why it is so difficult to repair India-Pakistan relations, and why it would be so desirable to do so, than at charting how. But he has presented a cogent¹⁶ argument that America—and other outside powers—should be trying harder.
与大多数分析家一样，里德尔也更擅长去形容一番为什么印巴关系难以修复，为什么两国冲突不可避免，而不是仔细观察，寻找解决之道。好在里德尔展示了一个令人信服的论证，即美国和其他外部势力应该再加把劲。

1 tangled   

adj. 纠缠的，紊乱的 动词tangle的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• Your hair's so tangled that I can't comb it. 你的头发太乱了，我梳不动。
• A movement caught his eye in the tangled undergrowth. 乱灌木丛里的晃动引起了他的注意。

2 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

3 bode   

v.预示

参考例句：

• These figures do not bode well for the company's future.这些数字显示出公司的前景不妙。
• His careful habits bode well for his future.他那认真的习惯预示著他会有好的前途。

4 naught   

n.无，零 [=nought]

参考例句：

• He sets at naught every convention of society.他轻视所有的社会习俗。
• I hope that all your efforts won't go for naught.我希望你的努力不会毫无结果。

5 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

6 fickle   

adj.(爱情或友谊上)易变的，不坚定的

参考例句：

• Fluctuating prices usually base on a fickle public's demand.物价的波动往往是由于群众需求的不稳定而引起的。
• The weather is so fickle in summer.夏日的天气如此多变。

7 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

8 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

9 saga   

n.(尤指中世纪北欧海盗的)故事，英雄传奇

参考例句：

• The saga of Flight 19 is probably the most repeated story about the Bermuda Triangle.飞行19中队的传说或许是有关百慕大三角最重复的故事。
• The novel depicts the saga of a family.小说描绘了一个家族的传奇故事。

10 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

11 trickiest   

adj.狡猾的( tricky的最高级 )；（形势、工作等）复杂的；机警的；微妙的

参考例句：

• Many believe this is the trickiest area to navigate. 很多人认为这是最难驾驭的领域。 来自时文部分
• Establishing confidence in a new monetary system was the trickiest part. 建立对新货币体系的信心是其最棘手的部分。 来自互联网

12 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

13 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。

14 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

15 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

16 cogent   

adj.强有力的，有说服力的

参考例句：

• The result is a cogent explanation of inflation.结果令人信服地解释了通货膨胀问题。
• He produced cogent reasons for the change of policy.他对改变政策提出了充分的理由。