经济学人177:伊朗与其核计划 对话暂停

 　　Iran and its nuclear plans

　　伊朗与其核计划

　　Time out

　　对话暂停

　　The West and Iran will negotiate for four more months, but the gap is wide

　　西方与伊朗将全面谈判对话延长四个月，但双方分歧很大

　　AFTER some unconvincing last-minute brinkmanship, Iran and the six world powers it is negotiating with decided¹ on July 18th to extend the deadline for an agreement by four months. The negotiators, seeking to secure a deal to curb² Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for the removal of sanctions, are taking a break until September. Then they have until November 24th, exactly a year after the signing of the “joint plan of action” that first set the ball rolling, to find a permanent solution.

　　在一些难以令人信服的边缘政策出台之后，伊朗和六国7月18日决定将对话延长四个月。谈判方希望能通过一个协定，以解除制裁伊朗来换取停止伊朗核项目。现在，双方对话暂停，于9月重新启动，并将持续到11月24日，这个日子自签订“联合行动计划”，也就是第一次开始对话以寻求永恒的解决办法以来，刚好整整一年。

　　In the meantime, the provisions of the six-month interim³ deal that came into force on January 20th will stay in place with a few minor⁴ tweaks. Iran will take another step towards neutralising its stockpile of 20%-enriched uranium by turning the uranium-oxide powder into fuel plates for a research reactor⁵. In return, Iran will continue to get very limited relief on some lesser⁶ sanctions and another $700m a month from frozen bank accounts abroad.

　　同时，1月20日开始实施的临时协定—日内瓦协定将做出一些微调，但基本保持不变。伊朗下一步将通过把二氧化铀粉末变成每一个研究反应堆的板块燃料板件来使用掉库存的20%浓缩铀。反过来，在对伊朗的制裁上，伊朗只能得到些许缓解，以及每月从海外冻结的银行账户中获得7亿美元的资金。

　　伊朗与其核计划.jpg

　　The decision to extend the negotiations⁷ makes sense for both sides and was widely expected. For the mainly Western negotiating team known as the P5+1 the interim deal has increased, if only by a bit, the time it would take Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a single nuclear device. Some progress has also been made on a plan to defang the heavy-water reactor at Arak that could provide Iran with an alternative plutonium path to a bomb, by adapting it to a design that produces far less plutonium.

　　延长对话的决定既对谈判双方都有益，也广受期待。对主要的西方谈判小组，也就是被大家所知晓的P5+1组织而言 ，对话暂停增加了时间伊朗能生产出足够武器级的铀来制造单个的核装置。目前就计划通过调整适应一个产生极少钚的设计方案以阿拉克重水反应堆已经取得一些进展。阿拉克能给伊朗提供替代性的钚来完成炸弹。

　　Another issue that people close to the negotiations feel could soon be resolved is that of the enrichment facility at Fordow. Buried deep beneath a mountain and believed by many to be invulnerable to attack by conventional bombs, it could now be converted into a fairly innocuous R&D centre. Combined with the enhanced-inspection regime that Iran has largely co-operated with, these are potential gains worth holding on to, at least for now.

　　另外，谈判相关人员能感觉到另一件事情可能很快得到解决，即弗杜的浓缩装置。很多人都认为这批被埋在大山地下深处的装置很容易遭受传统炸弹的轰击，而现在，已经转入一个相当安全的发展研究所。与伊朗大力合作的增前了的审查制度一并，这些都还值得紧紧抓牢，至少目前是这样。

　　For Iran, the choice has been much starker⁸. To walk away from the table at this point would be to condemn⁹ Iranians to the prospect¹⁰ of a failing economy permanently¹¹ locked in the grip of an unyielding sanctions regime. The damage to the presidency¹² of Hassan Rohani, elected last year to end Iran's economic and political isolation¹³, would probably be irreparable. Even the glowering¹⁴ supreme¹⁵ leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, might fear the consequences of failure for his regime's legitimacy¹⁶.

　　对伊朗来说，这种选择则更加严峻了。在这个节骨眼上离开谈判桌，伊朗因一个长期受制裁控制日渐衰退的经济状况而受到指责。去年，哈桑鲁哈尼当选总统，结束了伊朗的经济政治孤立状态，而如今他所受到的迫害怕是无法挽回的，甚至是凶狠的至高领导者阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊，也会害怕政权无效的后果。

　　Western negotiators are clearly hoping that contemplation of that grim prospect will give their Iranian counterparts the space they need to make the further concessions¹⁷ undoubtedly¹⁸ required if a comprehensive agreement is to be reached. America and its negotiating partners want to see Iran's current enrichment capacity—about 19,000 centrifuges, half of which are spinning—cut drastically. The Americans believe that anything above 3,000-4,000 would be impossible to sell to a sceptical Congress. Yet the Iranians seem to be digging in their heels by coming up with ever-higher estimates of the number of centrifuges they aim to have.

　　西方的谈判者很明显，他们就是在期待如果要达成全面的协议，不容乐观的前景会让伊朗做出进一步妥协。美国与其协商伙伴希望能看到伊朗大规模减少其目前的浓缩能力——1.9万分离机，其中一半处于工作中。美方认为，超过3000-4000以上，持怀疑态度的国会就不会买账。然而，伊朗似乎拒不让步，他们已经增加了预计持有的分离机数量。

　　In a speech on July 7th, Mr Khamenei declared that Iran must be able to produce enough enriched uranium to fuel the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear reactor when a contract with Russia to supply fuel runs out in 2021. That translates to a “definite need” for 190,000 separative work units. Iran would need more than 100,000 of the older IR-1 centrifuges that are the current backbone¹⁹ of its enrichment programme, or about 20,000 of the more efficient IR-2m centrifuges it has recently begun to deploy²⁰. The Iranians say this is in line with what they describe as their “right to enrich” for civil nuclear purposes under the terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

　　7月7日，哈梅内伊在讲话中说到，当与俄罗斯签订的燃料供给合约到2021年到期，伊朗一定能生产足够的浓缩铀供给俄罗斯建造的布什尔反应堆。也就是满足额定的19万分离功单位。伊朗还需10万多老式IR-1分离机，目前这是浓缩项目中的主要设备，或者2万多更高效的IR-2分离机，这也是目前已经开始采用的。伊方表示，这与他们所描述的在《不扩散核武条约》下，“有权浓缩”民用核是一致的。

　　America has tacitly admitted that Iran will have to be allowed to do some enriching as the price for a deal that otherwise constrains²¹ its nuclear plans. But it will not accept that Iran, given its record of deceit and clandestine²² activity, needs a capacity to enrich that is possessed²³ by very few other countries that use civil nuclear power. Robert Einhorn, an arms-control expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington who served in the Clinton administration, argues that the Iranian demand “fails the realism test at several levels”. It has no need to produce all its own fuel because it can either go on getting it from Russia or on the enriched-uranium buyers' market. Iran has neither the technical knowledge nor the infrastructure²⁴ to produce fuel of the type Bushehr requires.

　　美国机智地回应，承认伊朗以达成协议为前提能进行一些浓缩项目，不然将限制其核计划。但鉴于伊朗有撒谎和暗中擅自行为的前科，美国不会允许伊朗拥有只有少数使用民用核的国家拥有的浓缩能力。Robert Einhorn是华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的一位军备控制专家，曾为克林顿工作。他认为伊朗的需求在很多层面上显得不现实。伊朗完全没有必要将其所有的燃料生产出来，因为它能继续从俄罗斯或者浓缩铀市场得到燃料。伊朗既没有技术知识也没有基础设施生产出布什尔所需要的燃料品种。

　　If the enrichment capacity that Iran says it will eventually need is both implausible and far in excess of anything being contemplated²⁵ as acceptable to the P5+1, so too is its concept of the time an agreement would run before Iran could be treated as a “normal” NPT signatory. Iran is thinking in terms of not much more than five years, while the Americans and their partners have in mind ten to 20 years of punctilious²⁶ compliance²⁷ before Iran could start building up its centrifuges again. It is possible that under such a deal Iran might be allowed to continue developing advanced centrifuges and learn the techniques of fuel fabrication, thus preparing itself for a more ambitious nuclear programme after the agreement expires. That, Mr Einhorn thinks, could be the basis of a compromise.

　　如果伊朗所说自己最终需求的浓缩能力既不合情理，也不能被P5+1接受，那么在伊朗也能被视为一个正常的《不扩散核武条约》签署国之前，协议达成所需的时间也是一样的。伊朗的考虑是5年内，而美国及其盟友心中所想的时间伊朗需要谨慎遵从条约规定10到20年，才能再开始建立分离机。只有在这样的前提下，伊朗才有可能被允许继续发展高级的分离机以及学习燃料制造技术，因而在协议期满之后为自己更宏伟的核计划做好准备。 Einhorn表示这是妥协的基础。

　　Can Mr Rohani sell a deal along those lines back home, above all to the enigmatic Mr Khamenei? They may not even know. But four months is not long to find out.

　　鲁哈尼能与哈梅内伊达成协议吗？他们也许不会知道，但是花上四个月的时间，不难发现。

1 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

2 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

3 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

4 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

5 reactor   

n.反应器；反应堆

参考例句：

• The atomic reactor generates enormous amounts of thermal energy.原子反应堆发出大量的热能。
• Inside the reactor the large molecules are cracked into smaller molecules.在反应堆里，大分子裂变为小分子。

6 lesser   

adj.次要的，较小的；adv.较小地，较少地

参考例句：

• Kept some of the lesser players out.不让那些次要的球员参加联赛。
• She has also been affected,but to a lesser degree.她也受到波及，但程度较轻。

7 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

8 starker   

（指区别）明显的( stark的比较级 )； 完全的； 了无修饰的； 僵硬的

参考例句：

• As night falls, the contrast between these worlds grows starker. 随着夜幕的降临，两个世界的对比更为鲜明。
• What's more, compared with 1992, voters face a starker economic choice. 另外，跟1992年相比，选民面临着一种更为刻板的经济选择。

9 condemn   

vt.谴责，指责；宣判(罪犯)，判刑

参考例句：

• Some praise him,whereas others condemn him.有些人赞扬他，而有些人谴责他。
• We mustn't condemn him on mere suppositions.我们不可全凭臆测来指责他。

10 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

11 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

14 glowering   

v.怒视( glower的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The boy would not go, but stood at the door glowering at his father. 那男孩不肯走，他站在门口对他父亲怒目而视。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then he withdrew to a corner and sat glowering at his wife. 然后他溜到一个角落外，坐在那怒视着他的妻子。 来自辞典例句

15 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

16 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

17 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

18 undoubtedly   

adv.确实地，无疑地

参考例句：

• It is undoubtedly she who has said that.这话明明是她说的。
• He is undoubtedly the pride of China.毫无疑问他是中国的骄傲。

19 backbone   

n.脊骨，脊柱，骨干；刚毅，骨气

参考例句：

• The Chinese people have backbone.中国人民有骨气。
• The backbone is an articulate structure.脊椎骨是一种关节相连的结构。

20 deploy   

v.（军）散开成战斗队形，布置，展开

参考例句：

• The infantry began to deploy at dawn.步兵黎明时开始进入战斗位置。
• The president said he had no intention of deploying ground troops.总统称并不打算部署地面部队。

21 constrains   

强迫( constrain的第三人称单数 )； 强使； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• We'll ignore the continuity constrains. 我们往往忽略连续约束条件。
• It imposes constrains, restricting nature's freedom. 它具有限制自然界自由度的强制性。

22 clandestine   

adj.秘密的，暗中从事的

参考例句：

• She is the director of clandestine operations of the CIA.她是中央情报局秘密行动的负责人。
• The early Christians held clandestine meetings in caves.早期的基督徒在洞穴中秘密聚会。

23 possessed   

adj.疯狂的；拥有的，占有的

参考例句：

• He flew out of the room like a man possessed.他像着了魔似地猛然冲出房门。
• He behaved like someone possessed.他行为举止像是魔怔了。

24 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

25 contemplated   

adj. 预期的 动词contemplate的过去分词形式

参考例句：

• The doctor contemplated the difficult operation he had to perform. 医生仔细地考虑他所要做的棘手的手术。
• The government has contemplated reforming the entire tax system. 政府打算改革整个税收体制。

26 punctilious   

adj.谨慎的，谨小慎微的

参考例句：

• He was a punctilious young man.他是个非常拘礼的年轻人。
• Billy is punctilious in the performance of his duties.毕利执行任务总是一丝不苟的。

27 compliance   

n.顺从；服从；附和；屈从

参考例句：

• I was surprised by his compliance with these terms.我对他竟然依从了这些条件而感到吃惊。
• She gave up the idea in compliance with his desire.她顺从他的愿望而放弃自己的主意。