经济学人263:希腊和欧元

 　　Greece and the euro

　　希腊和欧元

　　Crisis revisited

　　危机重现

　　The euro is still vulnerable, and Greece is not the only problem

　　欧元仍然脆弱不堪，而希腊不是其中唯一的问题。

　　IT WAS almost exactly five years ago that the euro crisis erupted, starting in Greece. Investors¹ who had complacently² let all euro-zone countries borrow at uniformly low levels abruptly³ woke up to the riskiness⁴ of an incompetent⁵ government borrowing money in a currency which it could not depreciate⁶. There is thus a dismal⁷ symmetry in seeing the euro crisis flare⁸ up again in the place where it began.

　　距上一次由希腊引爆的欧债危机已经过去整整五年了。投资者曾经无所顾忌地以统一的低利率借钱给欧元区国家，现在却猛然醒悟，认识到一个无能的政府正在以不会贬值的货币不断地借钱。欧元危机从当年开始的国家重新蔓延，不得不说是一次悲催的重蹈覆辙。

　　欧元.jpg

　　The proximate cause of the latest outbreak of nerves was the decision by the Greek government, now headed by the generally competent Antonis Samaras, to advance the presidential election to later this month. The presidency⁹ is largely ceremonial, but if Mr Samaras cannot win enough votes in parliament for his candidate, Stavros Dimas, a general election will follow. Polls suggest the winner would be Syriza, a populist party led by Alexis Tsipras. Although Mr Tsipras professes¹⁰ that he does not want to leave the euro, he is making promises to voters on public spending and taxes that may make it hard for Greece to stay. Hence the markets' sudden pessimism¹¹.

　　导致投资者精神突然紧张的直接原因是希腊政府的决定。现任希腊领导人Antonis Samaras相对还比较有能力，他将在本月晚些时候提前进行总统选举。本次选举基本上是仪式性的，但如果Samaras不能在议会为其接班人Stavros Dimas赢得足够多的选票，接下来还会进行一次普选。民意调查显示，由Alexis Tsipras 领导的民粹主义政党左翼联盟将会赢得普选。尽管Tsipras表示他不会支持希腊脱离欧元区，但他在公开场合向选民做出的关于公共支出和税收的承诺会令希腊很难留在欧元区。因此市场突然悲观情绪弥漫。

　　As it happens, there is a good chance that Mr Dimas, a former EU commissioner¹², will win the presidential vote at the end of this month (see article). But the latest Aegean tragicomedy is a timely reminder¹³ both of how unreformed the euro zone still is and of the dangers lurking¹⁴ in its politics.

　　刚巧，对于前欧盟委员Dimas来说是在本月底赢得总统选举的好机会。但是，最近发生在这个爱琴海国家的悲喜剧在不断提醒人们，欧元区的改革是多么的止步不前，且其政治中隐藏了多少危机。

　　It is true that, ever since the pledge by the European Central Bank's president, Mario Draghi in July 2012 to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro, fears that the single currency might break up have dissipated. Much has been done to repair the euro's architecture, ranging from the establishment of a bail-out fund to the start of a banking¹⁵ union. And economic growth across the euro zone is slowly returning, however anaemically, even to Greece and other bailed-out countries.

　　现实是，自从2012年7月欧洲央行主席Mario Draghi发誓要不惜一切代价拯救欧元之后，人们对于单一货币可能会崩溃的担忧消除了。为了修复欧元的组织结构人们做了很多工作，从建立应急储备基金到开始统一银行业。欧元区国家的经济，即使是希腊和其他获得援助的国家，也在缓慢增长。

　　But is that good enough? Even if the immediate¹⁶ threat of break-up has receded¹⁷, the longer-term threat to the single currency has, if anything, increased. The euro zone seems to be trapped in a cycle of slow growth, high unemployment and dangerously low inflation. Mr Draghi would like to respond to this with full-blown quantitative¹⁸ easing, but he is running into fierce opposition¹⁹ from German and other like-minded ECB council members (see article). Fiscal²⁰ expansion is similarly blocked by Germany's unyielding insistence²¹ on strict budgetary discipline. And forcing structural²² reforms through the two sickliest core euro countries, Italy and France, remains²³ an agonisingly slow business.

　　但是这就够了么？即使当下分崩离析的危险暂时解除了，欧元这一单一货币的长期危险反而增加了。欧元区似乎被困在缓慢增长、高失业率和极其危险的低通胀怪圈里。Draghi希望能通过全面的量化宽松对这一困境做出反应。但他的主张遭到了德国和其他持有相似观点的欧洲央行成员的激烈反对。同样，德国坚持严格的预算控制不仅毫无成效也阻碍了财政扩张。另外，强迫两个欧洲最疲弱的核心国家——意大利和法国进行结构改革，同样也进展缓慢。

　　Japan is reckoned to have had two “lost decades”; but in the past 20 years it grew by almost 0.9% a year. The euro zone, whose economy has not grown since the crisis, is showing no sign of dragging itself out of its slump²⁴. And Japan's political set-up is far more manageable than Europe's. It is a single political entity²⁵ with a cohesive²⁶ society; the euro zone consists of 18 separate countries, each with a different political landscape. It is hard to imagine it living through a decade even more dismal than Japan's without some political upheaval²⁷.

　　日本被认为已经经历了“失去的二十年”，但是在过去的20年中，日本基本保持了0.9%的年增长率。欧元区的经济自从危机之后就没有增长，且没有任何迹象表明其有能力拜托这一困局。而且日本的政治体系也比欧洲更易管控。这是一个拥有单一政治实体的有凝聚力的社会；而欧元区有18个国家，每个都有不同的政治面貌。很难想象如果没有一场政治巨变，欧元区能撑过一个比日本更悲催的十年。

　　Greece is hardly alone in having angry voters. Portugal and Spain both have elections next year, in which parties that are fiercely against excessive austerity are likely to do well. In Italy three of the four biggest parties, Forza Italia, the Northern League and Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement, are turning against euro membership. France's anti-European National Front continues to climb in the opinion polls. Even Germany has a rising populist party that is against the euro.

　　希腊不是唯一一个有着愤怒选民的国家。葡萄牙和西班牙明年都将举行选举，那些反对过度节俭政策的政党们更有可能胜出。意大利四大政党中的三个：意大利前进党、北方联盟和Beppe Grillo领导的五星运动党，都反对意大利继续成为欧盟成员国。法国民意调查显示，反欧盟的国民阵线的支持率继续攀升。即便是在德国，也有一个反欧盟的民粹主义政党正在崛起。

　　It's the politics, stupid

　　这是愚蠢的政治

　　Indeed, the political risks to the euro may be greater now than they were at the height of the euro crisis in 2011-12. What was striking then was that large majorities of ordinary voters preferred to stick with the single currency despite the austerity imposed by the conditions of their bail-outs, because they feared that any alternative would be even more painful. Now that the economies of Europe seem a little more stable, the risks of walking away from the single currency may also seem smaller.

　　确实，欧元的政治危机可能比2011-12年欧债危机顶峰时期更加危险。令人惊讶的是，尽管当时由于紧急援助而使得人们不得不节衣缩食，绝大多数普通选民仍宁愿维持单一货币政策，因为他们担心任何改变会变得更糟。现在，欧洲经济似乎变得稍微稳定了些，放弃单一欧元的风险也变得更小了。

　　Alexis de Tocqueville once observed that the most dangerous moment for a bad government was when it began to reform. Unless it can find some way to boost growth soon, the euro zone could yet bear out his dictum.

　　Alexis de Tocqueville曾经做过观察，他认为一个失败政治最危险的时刻是在其正准备开始改革的时候。除非它能很快找到刺激增长的方法，欧元区可能仍需为其坚持的政策提供证明。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 complacently   

adv. 满足地, 自满地, 沾沾自喜地

参考例句：

• He complacently lived out his life as a village school teacher. 他满足于一个乡村教师的生活。
• "That was just something for evening wear," returned his wife complacently. “那套衣服是晚装，"他妻子心安理得地说道。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

3 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

4 riskiness   

n.风险性

参考例句：

• As they do, the riskiness of the system steadily increases. 因此他们乐于更多地借贷。
• Small town banks have to assess the relative riskiness of threir loans. 小城市的银行必须预估他们贷款相当的冒险。

5 incompetent   

adj.无能力的，不能胜任的

参考例句：

• He is utterly incompetent at his job.他完全不能胜任他的工作。
• He is incompetent at working with his hands.他动手能力不行。

6 depreciate   

v.降价，贬值，折旧

参考例句：

• The computer value will depreciate by $ 500 in the first year.在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
• If you neglect this property,it will depreciate.如果你忽视这份资产，它无形中就贬值了。

7 dismal   

adj.阴沉的，凄凉的，令人忧郁的，差劲的

参考例句：

• That is a rather dismal melody.那是一支相当忧郁的歌曲。
• My prospects of returning to a suitable job are dismal.我重新找到一个合适的工作岗位的希望很渺茫。

8 flare   

v.闪耀，闪烁；n.潮红；突发

参考例句：

• The match gave a flare.火柴发出闪光。
• You need not flare up merely because I mentioned your work.你大可不必因为我提到你的工作就动怒。

9 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

10 professes   

声称( profess的第三人称单数 )； 宣称； 公开表明； 信奉

参考例句：

• She still professes her innocence. 她仍然声称自己无辜。
• He professes himself to be sad but doesn't look it. 他自称感到悲伤，但外表却看不出来。

11 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

12 commissioner   

n.（政府厅、局、处等部门）专员，长官，委员

参考例句：

• The commissioner has issued a warrant for her arrest.专员发出了对她的逮捕令。
• He was tapped for police commissioner.他被任命为警务处长。

13 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

14 lurking   

潜在

参考例句：

• Why are you lurking around outside my house? 你在我房子外面鬼鬼祟祟的，想干什么？
• There is a suspicious man lurking in the shadows. 有一可疑的人躲在阴暗中。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

16 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

17 receded   

v.逐渐远离( recede的过去式和过去分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• The floodwaters have now receded. 洪水现已消退。
• The sound of the truck receded into the distance. 卡车的声音渐渐在远处消失了。

18 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

19 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

20 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

21 insistence   

n.坚持；强调；坚决主张

参考例句：

• They were united in their insistence that she should go to college.他们一致坚持她应上大学。
• His insistence upon strict obedience is correct.他坚持绝对服从是对的。

22 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

23 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

24 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

25 entity   

n.实体，独立存在体，实际存在物

参考例句：

• The country is no longer one political entity.这个国家不再是一个统一的政治实体了。
• As a separate legal entity,the corporation must pay taxes.作为一个独立的法律实体，公司必须纳税。

26 cohesive   

adj.有粘着力的；有结合力的；凝聚性的

参考例句：

• She sealed the parcel with cohesive tape.她用粘胶带把包裹封起来。
• The author skillfully fuses these fragments into a cohesive whole.作者将这些片断巧妙地结合成一个连贯的整体。

27 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。