经济学人264:气候变化与地质工程学 地球发光令人担心

 　　Climate change and geoengineering

　　气候变化与地质工程学

　　Fears of a bright planet

　　地球发光，令人担心

　　Experiments designed to learn more about ways of geoengineering the climate should be allowed to proceed

　　为更好地利用工程学手段研究气候问题所设计的实验应该获准进行下去。

　　SHINY things absorb less heat when left in the sun. This means that if the Earth could be made a little shinier it would be less susceptible¹ to global warming. Ways to brighten it, such as adding nanoscale specks² of salt to low clouds, making them whiter, or putting a thin haze³ of particles into the stratosphere, are the province of “geoengineering”. The small band of scientists which have been studying this subject over the past decade or so have mostly been using computer models. Some of them are now proposing outdoor experiments—using seawater-fed sprayers to churn out particles of the exact size needed to brighten clouds, or spewing sulphur particles from underneath⁴ a large balloon 20km up in the sky.

　　发光的物体放在太阳下面会吸收较少的热量。这就意味着如果让地球发一点光的话，受到全球变暖的影响就会小一些。让地球发光的方式，比方说在低空云层上添加纳米级的盐微粒，让云变得更白，或者是将一层薄的雾状物洒向平流层，这些都属于地质工程学的范畴。过去十年左右研究这一领域的一小批科学家主要使用计算机模型，其中一些人现在提出要做室外实验――就是用装有海水的喷雾器射出大量使云彩发光所需的相同大小的粒子，或者从升到距地面20公里处的大型气球下喷洒硫粒子。

　　气候变化.jpg

　　The aims are modest. The scientists hope to understand some of the processes on which these technologies depend, as a way of both gauging⁵ their feasibility (can you reliably make tiny puffs⁶ of sea salt brighten clouds?) and assessing their risks (how much damage to the ozone⁷ layer might a stratospheric haze do, and how might such damage be minimized?). The experiments would be far too small to have any climatic effects. The amount of sulphur put into the stratosphere by the experimental balloon would be 2% of what a passenger jet crossing the Atlantic emits in an hour.

　　这样做的目标并不宏伟。科学家们希望能够了解这些技术所依托的一些过程，也是作为衡量其可行性（能否可靠使用微小的海盐粒子让云彩发光？）和评估其风险（附着在平流层的雾状物会给臭氧层造成多大危害，如何把危害降到最低？）的方式。这些实验对气候变化的影响微乎其微。实验所用的气球投入平流层的硫总量相当于横越大西洋的喷气式客机一小时喷射气体总量的2%。

　　Nonetheless, these experiments—and this whole line of research—are hugely controversial. Many scientists are skeptical⁸ about geoengineering and most greens are outraged⁹. Opponents object to them for a range of reasons. Some are against the very idea of geoengineering and any experiments in the area, even those which pose no immediate¹⁰ risk to the environment. They abhor¹¹ the hubris¹² involved in trying to affect the mechanics of the climate and despair at the potential diversion of attention from controlling carbon emissions¹³ as the route to countering climate change. They find the idea of some–possibly many—countries having the power to change the climate for the whole planet a geopolitical nightmare. Even modest experiments in geoengineering, according to this logic¹⁴, are the beginnings of a slippery slope, one that will engender¹⁵ a false sense of security and domesticate¹⁶ an idea that should have always remained outrageous¹⁷.

　　尽管如此，这些实验以及整个研究领域存在巨大争议。许多科学家怀疑地质工程学，多数绿党成员感到很气愤。反对的原因很多。一些人反对地质工程学这一学科和涉及该领域的实验，甚至对环境不会立即造成风险的实验也遭到了反对。他们讨厌尽力影响气候机制而产生的傲慢行为，并对应对气候变化过程中可能将注意力远离控制碳排放的行为感到绝望。他们发现，一些（也可能是许多）国家有能力改变全球气候的想法是一个地缘政治的梦魇。根据这一逻辑，即使是很小的地质工程实验也是大灾难的开端，会产生不真实的安全感，并滋生一种永远都令人气愤的想法。

　　Yet caving in to this opposition¹⁸ would raise, rather than reduce, the dangers to the planet. Geoengineering is not an alternative to mitigating¹⁹ climate change by cutting carbon emissions, but it may be needed as a complement²⁰ to it. Although pressure for cuts in carbon emissions through negotiations²¹ such as those currently taking place in Lima is yielding results—witness the recent agreement by China and America on new reduction targets—it has so far been insufficient²² to the task, and emissions look set to rise for decades yet.

　　然而，向这种反对声音投降会增加而非减少对地球造成的危险。通过减少碳排放来缓解气候变化，地质工程学并不是其备用方案，但可能是一种补充方案。尽管通过协商来解决减少碳排放问题的压力会带来好的结果（例如目前在利马召开的气候变化峰会见证了中美两国制定新的减排目标）,但是到目前为止，这么做是远远不够的，而且排放量还会在几十年里有所增加。

　　Even if emissions do eventually start to fall, the cuts will take decades to have any effect so temperatures are likely to go on going up for some time. Although they have not soared in the past couple of decades as they did in the 1980s and 1990s, there is a fair chance that this year will tie with the hottest on record. The planet is not getting cooler and the pressures on the climate are unlikely to go away. It is therefore not too hard to imagine a world, decades hence, in which emissions are falling but temperatures are rising steeply and the ability to adapt to them has been stretched too far. An additional way to stabilize²³ temperatures might then seem in order. Geoengineering offers that possibility.

　　即使排放量最终真的会开始减少，也要在几十年之后才会见到成效，所以在一段时间内温度还是可能会上升的。尽管过去几十年温度不像上世纪八九十年代那样上升得那么厉害，但是今年很有可能追平过往的最高温度纪录。地球不会降温，气候带来的压力也不可能消失。所以不难想象，几十年后的世界，排放量减少，但是温度陡升，适应这样的环境无法做到。到那时，让温度稳定下来的额外方式似乎可能成形，而地质工程学就会实现这一目标提供可能。

　　Knowledge can be dangerous; ignorance can be worse

　　知识有危险，无知更危险。

　　Research on a question of such gravity will have implications beyond its scientific results. But that is a reason to hold the scientists to high standards, not to duck the experiment entirely²⁴. If the research consists of safe, well-conceived experiments designed to improve scientific understanding of the processes involved; if it is conducted by people who openly discuss with the public the implications of their research; if it is funded by bodies that take the need for transparency and debate about the risks inherent in such research seriously: then it deserves to be approved.

　　关于这一严重性问题的研究可能会带来科学以外的结果。但是这是让科学家保持高标准要求而不是完全回避实验的一个原因。如果研究是由安全的，构思缜密的，旨在增强对操作过程的科学理解的实验组成，如果做研究的人公开讨论过研究的意义，如果为实验提供资金的机构能够认真对待研究本身的透明度和所造成风险的讨论，那样的话实验才能获得批准。

　　There are all sorts of reasons why geoengineering may prove impossible, either politically or scientifically. It may be too dangerous to countenance²⁵, and the circumstances which might make it an appealing complement to cutting emissions may never arise. But to treat research into the subject as taboo²⁶ on the basis that ignorance is a viable²⁷ defense²⁸ against folly²⁹ would be a dangerous mistake.

　　地质工程学不可能实现有各种各样的原因，有政治上的原因或者科学上的原因。地质工程的做法太危险，无法获得批准，而将其作为减少碳排放的补充方案也无法实现。但是如果忌讳这一研究领域，原因是无知可以切实地捍卫愚蠢的话，那这就是一个很危险的错误了。

1 susceptible   

adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的

参考例句：

• Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
• We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。

2 specks   

n.眼镜；斑点，微粒，污点( speck的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Minutes later Brown spotted two specks in the ocean. 几分钟后布朗发现海洋中有两个小点。 来自英汉非文学 - 百科语料821
• Do you ever seem to see specks in front of your eyes? 你眼睛前面曾似乎看见过小点吗？ 来自辞典例句

3 haze   

n.霾，烟雾；懵懂，迷糊；vi.(over)变模糊

参考例句：

• I couldn't see her through the haze of smoke.在烟雾弥漫中，我看不见她。
• He often lives in a haze of whisky.他常常是在威士忌的懵懂醉意中度过的。

4 underneath   

adj.在...下面，在...底下；adv.在下面

参考例句：

• Working underneath the car is always a messy job.在汽车底下工作是件脏活。
• She wore a coat with a dress underneath.她穿着一件大衣，里面套着一条连衣裙。

5 gauging   

n.测量[试]，测定，计量v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的现在分词 )；估计；计量；划分

参考例句：

• The method is especially attractive for gauging natural streams. 该方法对于测量天然的流注具有特殊的吸引力。 来自辞典例句
• Incommunicative as he was, some time elapsed before I had an opportunity of gauging his mind. 由于他不爱说话，我过了一些时候才有机会探测他的心灵。 来自辞典例句

6 puffs   

n.吸( puff的名词复数 )；（烟斗或香烟的）一吸；一缕（烟、蒸汽等）；（呼吸或风的）呼v.使喷出( puff的第三人称单数 )；喷着汽（或烟）移动；吹嘘；吹捧

参考例句：

• We sat exchanging puffs from that wild pipe of his. 我们坐在那里，轮番抽着他那支野里野气的烟斗。 来自辞典例句
• Puffs of steam and smoke came from the engine. 一股股蒸汽和烟雾从那火车头里冒出来。 来自辞典例句

7 ozone   

n.臭氧，新鲜空气

参考例句：

• The ozone layer is a protective layer around the planet Earth.臭氧层是地球的保护层。
• The capacity of ozone can adjust according of requirement.臭氧的产量可根据需要或调节。

8 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。

9 outraged   

a.震惊的，义愤填膺的

参考例句：

• Members of Parliament were outraged by the news of the assassination. 议会议员们被这暗杀的消息激怒了。
• He was outraged by their behavior. 他们的行为使他感到愤慨。

10 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

11 abhor   

v.憎恶；痛恨

参考例句：

• They abhor all forms of racial discrimination.他们憎恶任何形式的种族歧视。
• They abhor all the nations who have different ideology and regime.他们仇视所有意识形态和制度与他们不同的国家。

12 hubris   

n.傲慢，骄傲

参考例句：

• There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris.在技术方面自以为是会很危险。
• The very hubris of French claims alarmed the other powers.法国贪婪的胃口使其他大国惊恐不安。

13 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

14 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

15 engender   

v.产生，引起

参考例句：

• A policy like that tends to engender a sense of acceptance,and the research literature suggests this leads to greater innovation.一个能够使员工产生认同感的政策，研究表明这会走向更伟大的创新。
• The sense of injustice they engender is a threat to economic and political security.它们造成的不公平感是对经济和政治安全的威胁。

16 domesticate   

vt.驯养；使归化，使专注于家务

参考例句：

• Many thousand years ago people learned how to domesticate animals.数千年以前人们就学会了饲养动物。
• If you domesticate this raccoon,it will have trouble living in the wild.如果你驯养这只浣熊，它生活在野外将会有困难。

17 outrageous   

adj.无理的，令人不能容忍的

参考例句：

• Her outrageous behaviour at the party offended everyone.她在聚会上的无礼行为触怒了每一个人。
• Charges for local telephone calls are particularly outrageous.本地电话资费贵得出奇。

18 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

19 mitigating   

v.减轻，缓和( mitigate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Are there any mitigating circumstances in this case ? 本案中是否有任何情况可以减轻被告的罪行？ 来自辞典例句
• A sentencing judge is required to consider any mitigating circumstances befor imposing the death penalty. 在处死刑之前，要求量刑法官必须考虑是否有任何减轻罪行之情节。 来自口语例句

20 complement   

n.补足物，船上的定员；补语；vt.补充，补足

参考例句：

• The two suggestions complement each other.这两条建议相互补充。
• They oppose each other also complement each other.它们相辅相成。

21 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

22 insufficient   

adj.(for，of)不足的，不够的

参考例句：

• There was insufficient evidence to convict him.没有足够证据给他定罪。
• In their day scientific knowledge was insufficient to settle the matter.在他们的时代，科学知识还不能足以解决这些问题。

23 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

24 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

25 countenance   

n.脸色，面容；面部表情；vt.支持，赞同

参考例句：

• At the sight of this photograph he changed his countenance.他一看见这张照片脸色就变了。
• I made a fierce countenance as if I would eat him alive.我脸色恶狠狠地，仿佛要把他活生生地吞下去。

26 taboo   

n.禁忌，禁止接近，禁止使用；adj.禁忌的；v.禁忌，禁制，禁止

参考例句：

• The rude words are taboo in ordinary conversation.这些粗野的字眼在日常谈话中是禁忌的。
• Is there a taboo against sex before marriage in your society?在你们的社会里，婚前的性行为犯禁吗？

27 viable   

adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的

参考例句：

• The scheme is economically viable.这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
• The economy of the country is not viable.这个国家经济是难以维持的。

28 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

29 folly   

n.愚笨，愚蠢，蠢事，蠢行，傻话

参考例句：

• Learn wisdom by the folly of others.从别人的愚蠢行动中学到智慧。
• Events proved the folly of such calculations.事情的进展证明了这种估计是愚蠢的。