经济学人106:气候之争

 　　A new row about the IPCC

　　政府间气候变化专门委员会的新争吵

　　A climate of conflict

　　气候之争

　　The world’s climate experts must work harder to avoid conflicts of interest

　　全球的气候专家们必须要竭尽全力以避免利益之争

　　Jun 23rd 2011 | from the print edition | International

　　PANELS of experts assessing scientific investigations¹ tend to be messy affairs, particularly when their customers are governments. People with expertise² in one field, such as renewable energy, may have a bias³ towards it. Summaries of their work are the result of political negotiations⁴. And findings are further boiled down in an attempt to win media coverage⁵.

　　那些评估科学考察的专家小组越发地变得复杂了，尤其是当他们的客户是政府时更是如此。在某个领域，如可再生能源方面拥有专业知识的人或许对此有偏见。他们的工作摘要是政治谈判的结果。这样的发现可以进一步归结为试图赢得媒体的报道。

　　Much of this can be seen in a new “special report” on renewable energy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was released last week. Possible conflicts of interest, revealed by Steve McIntyre, a blogger, have led to another controversy⁶ about the panel—only 18 months after its embarrassment⁷ over an incorrect claim about the imminent⁸ demise⁹ of the Himalayas’ glaciers¹⁰.

　　从新的有关可再生能源的“特别报告”中就可以看到以上的大部分情况，该报告是在上周由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC，以下简称气候委员会）发布的。一个叫史帝夫．麦因特（Steve McIntyre）的博客透露，可能的利益纷争已经又引发了一场关于专家小组的争议——这距离上次关于喜马拉雅山冰川即将消失的错误言论仅有18个月的时间。

　　For a start, the press release about the report was misleading. “Close to 80% of the world’s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century if backed by the right enabling public policies, a new report shows,” it claims. In fact, the report merely discusses the assumptions needed to produce this outcome, one of the more extreme scenarios¹² the IPCC looked at.

　　首先，出版机构发布的这个报道就有误导性。它声称“一个新的报告显示，如果在正确且有效的公共政策支持下，在本世纪中叶，可再生能源可以提供全球近80%的能源供应”。事实上，该报告仅仅讨论了能够出现这种结果的假设，而在气候委员会看来，这只是一种更为极端的情况之一。

　　A poorly written press release might have caused less of a stir, were it not for the fact that Greenpeace had come up with the scenario¹¹. Its development was led by Sven Teske, director of the group’s renewable-energy campaign. He was also one of the 12 authors of the chapter in question. What is more, a Greenpeace publication based on this scenario was graced by a foreword written by Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s chairman.

　　一个写得不好的新闻稿或许不会造成太大的轰动，然而对于“绿色和平”已经出版的大纲却不是这样。该大纲是由思凡?泰斯科（Sven Teske）领导编写的，他是绿色和平组织可再生能源项目主管，也是相关有争议内容的12个作者之一。此外，气候委员会的主席金德拉?帕乔里（Rajendra Pachauri）还为绿色和平组织的一个出版物作序，为其添彩不少，该出版物是也是以有争议的章节为依据的。

　　As if to underline such problems, when the governments that make up the IPCC met in May to release the summary of the report, they also adopted, for the first time, a policy on conflicts of interest among expert authors. Such a policy had been strongly recommended by an outside panel asked to look into the IPCC last year.

　　气候委员会的政府成员在五月份会见时，发布了该报告的摘要，似乎就是为了强调这样的问题，他们也是第一次接受了在专家作者之间产生利益冲突的政策。去年，这样的政策受到一个要求调查气候委员会的外部专家小组强烈地支持。

　　Although Mr Teske’s case produced headlines, it is not necessarily the most worrying conflict of interest. Environmentalists are concerned about the number of “pro-dam” people on the team of authors reporting on hydropower. And it is not just the authors that may be conflicted. Each chapter of an IPCC report goes through a review process to ensure that all comments have been addressed satisfactorily. One of the two editors overseeing this process for the chapter on wind energy was Christian¹³ Kjaer, the boss of a lobbying group, the European Wind Energy Association. He points out that he did not seek the role of review editor, but was asked when someone else dropped out. Given the procedural nature of the task, he does not think that he had a conflict of interest.

　　虽然泰斯科的报告成了头条新闻，不过这不会成为最让人担忧的利益冲突。对于报告水利方面的作者，环保人士则关注其小组中“支持水坝”的人数。并不仅是作者会陷入冲突。气候委员会每章的报告都要通过审查程序以确保都得到满意的解释。在监督有关风能那一章的两个编辑之一是克利斯蒂坦?凯嘉尔（Christian Kjaer），他是一个游说集团欧洲风能协会的老板。他指出，他并没有找到当审查编辑的感觉，不过他被问及到了是否有其他人退出。鉴于该任务的程序化特点，他并不认为有利益冲突。

　　Personal bias can be overcome with large, balanced author teams, but in the case of the report on renewables it is not obvious there was such a balance. The report discusses the downsides of various renewable energies, the challenge of incorporating them into existing infrastructure¹⁴ at scale and the vast if poorly bounded costs of deploying¹⁵ them: $1.5 trillion to $7.2 trillion in the 2020s, depending on the scenario. But the summary, in particular, is largely upbeat.

　　个人偏见可以在很大程度上被均衡的作者团队所解决，不过在报道可再生能源方面，却很少能够看到这样的均衡。该报告讨论了各种可再生能源的缺点，在现在基础设施上大量使用它们所面临的挑战，以及整合不好这些能源时所付出的代价：按照此纲要，在21世纪20年代需要投入1.5万亿到7.2万亿美元。但该报告的摘要在很大程度上还是持乐观态度。

　　A case in point is the generating capacity of renewables. The report discusses the fact that this is smaller than for other forms of power generation. But the summary glosses¹⁶ over the problem, for instance by not mentioning that, although renewables have accounted for almost half the world’s new generating capacity in the past two years, the other half has probably generated a lot more electricity.

　　在这一点上，典型的例子便是可再生能源的发电量。该报告讨论了可再生能源比其他形式的能源发电规模小的事实。不过摘要掩饰了问题，例如，虽然可再生能源在过去的两年间，占到了全球新增发电量的一半，但另一半可能已经产生了更多的电量，报告却并没有提到这些。

　　This is not all the boffins’ fault. Some countries, such as Germany, which nominated Mr Teske, are very keen on renewables—and wanted the summary to reflect this. Brazil has little interest in anything that can be seen as biofuel-bashing.

　　这也不全是科学家们的错。一些例如德国这样非常热衷于可再生能源的国家提名了泰斯科，并希望摘要上能体现这一点。巴西则在任何能够产生生物燃料的东西很少的兴趣。

　　The lesson of the latest IPCC row is that its authors and organisers must fight harder against groupthink—and speedily implement¹⁷ the new conflict-of-interest policy. It is wrong, as Mr Pachauri seems to think, that the policy should not immediately and fully¹⁸ apply to everyone involved in the panel’s current climate assessment¹⁹. It would be churlish to see no progress on reforming the IPCC, but blindness to believe there had been enough.

　　从气候委员会最新一系列事件中所吸取的教训就是，它的作者和组织都必须更加尽力地对抗群体思维——并且迅速实施新的利益冲突政策。就像帕乔里似乎思考的那样，涉及专家小组目前气候评估的政策不能立即，全方位地适用于每个人，这一点是错误的。除了气候委员会曾经存在的很大盲目性，如果在的改革再看不到有任何进展，这将会很糟糕。

1 investigations   

（正式的）调查( investigation的名词复数 )； 侦查； 科学研究； 学术研究

参考例句：

• His investigations were intensive and thorough but revealed nothing. 他进行了深入彻底的调查，但没有发现什么。
• He often sent them out to make investigations. 他常常派他们出去作调查。

2 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

3 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

4 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

5 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

6 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

7 embarrassment   

n.尴尬；使人为难的人(事物)；障碍；窘迫

参考例句：

• She could have died away with embarrassment.她窘迫得要死。
• Coughing at a concert can be a real embarrassment.在音乐会上咳嗽真会使人难堪。

8 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

9 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

10 glaciers   

冰河，冰川( glacier的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Glaciers gouged out valleys from the hills. 冰川把丘陵地带冲出一条条山谷。
• It has ice and snow glaciers, rainforests and beautiful mountains. 既有冰川，又有雨林和秀丽的山峰。 来自英语晨读30分（高一）

11 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

12 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

13 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

14 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

15 deploying   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的现在分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Provides support for developing and deploying distributed, component-based applications. 为开发和部署基于组件的分布式应用程序提供支持。
• Advertisement, publishing, repair, and install-on-demand are all available when deploying your application. 在部署应用程序时提供公布、发布、修复和即需即装功能。

16 glosses   

n.（页末或书后的）注释( gloss的名词复数 )；（表面的）光滑；虚假的外表；用以产生光泽的物质v.注解( gloss的第三人称单数 )；掩饰（错误）；粉饰；把…搪塞过去

参考例句：

• The movie glosses over the real issues of the war. 这部电影掩饰了这次战争的真正问题。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Time inevitably glosses over the particularities of each situation. 时间不可避免地掩饰了每种情形的特质。 来自互联网

17 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

18 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

19 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？