经济学人117:太空时代的结束

 　　Space exploration

　　太空探索

　　The end of the Space Age

　　太空时代的结束

　　Inner space is useful. Outer space is history

　　研究内太空才有用，让外太空研究成为历史

　　Jun 30th 2011 | from the print edition

　　HOW big is the Earth? Any encyclopedia¹ will give you an answer: its equatorial diameter is 12,756km, or, for those who prefer to think that way, 7,926 miles. Ah, but then there is the atmosphere. Should that count? Perhaps the planet’s true diameter is actually nearer 13,000km, including all its air. But even that may no longer be an adequate measure. For the Earth now reaches farther still. The vacuum surrounding it buzzes with artificial satellites, forming a sort of technosphere beyond the atmosphere. Most of these satellites circle only a few hundred kilometres above the planet’s solid surface. Many, though, form a ring like Saturn’s at a distance of 36,000km, the place at which an object takes 24 hours to orbit the Earth and thus hovers² continuously over the same point of the planet.

　　地球有多大？任何一本百科全书都会给你答案：赤道直径是12,756公里，或者，用英里来表达7,926英里。嗯，但是大气层有多大呢？也能计算吗? 包括空气（大气层）在内，地球的直径可能接近13,000公里。甚至连这个数据也不够充分。因为现在地球的变化太大（远离平静的状态）。包围大气层的外部空间人造卫星来去匆匆，形成一个在大气层外面的所谓技术层。大部分卫星绕行高度离地球地表仅几百公里。然而，在距地球36,000公里的轨道上物体绕转地球一周的时间为24小时，这个物体飞行时持续面对的是地球上的不变的同一个点，这样许多地球同步卫星的运行会形成一个类似的土星环。

　　Viewed this way, the Earth is quite a lot larger than the traditional textbook answer. And viewed this way, the Space Age has been a roaring success. Telecommunications, weather forecasting, agriculture, forestry³ and even the search for minerals have all been revolutionised. So has warfare⁴. No power can any longer mobilise its armed forces in secret. The exact location of every building on the planet can be known. And satellite-based global-positioning systems will guide a smart bomb to that location on demand.

　　从这个方面看，地球比传统的教科书上的回答其实要大很多。这样看来，太空时代已经有了相当的成功。电信业，天气预测，农业，林业，甚至是在矿藏搜寻方面都有了彻底变革。战争也同样如此，再也没有政府能秘密地调兵遣将。这颗星球上的每一幢建筑物的位置都能被精确掌握。基于卫星的全球定位系统能按要求指引智能炸弹到达目标。

　　Yet none of this was the Space Age as envisaged⁵ by the enthusiastic “space cadets” who got the whole thing going. Though engineers like Wernher von Braun, who built the rockets for both Germany’s second-world-war V2 project and America’s cold-war Apollo project, sold their souls to the military establishment in order to pursue their dreams of space travel by the only means then available, most of them had their eyes on a higher prize. “First Men to a Geostationary Orbit” does not have quite the same ring as “First Men to the Moon”, a book von Braun wrote in 1958. The vision being sold in the 1950s and 1960s, when the early space rockets were flying, was of adventure and exploration. The facts of the American space project and its Soviet⁶ counterpart elided seamlessly into the fantasy of “Star Trek⁷”（1） and “2001: A Space Odyssey⁸”（2）. Other planets may or may not have been inhabited by aliens, but they, and even other stars, were there for the taking. That the taking would begin in the lifetimes of people then alive was widely assumed to be true.

　　然而没有这些推动太空事业发展的太空学员的满腔热情，太空时代便无法想象。工程师们为了实现遨游太空的梦想全身心地投入到军事机构中，这是唯一的可以获得使用的途径。比如工程师Wernher Braun，他为二战时期的德国V2计划和冷战时期的美国阿波罗计划分别建造了火箭。虽然他们中很多人是为了获得高额的奖金。工程师Wernher Braun在1958年的一本书中写道，第一个到达与地球同步轨道的人并没有得到第一个到达月球的人同样的花环。二十世纪五六十年代，当早期的意在探索冒险的太空火箭升空时，太空遨游的幻想就更热切了。事实上，美国的太空计划署和苏联的太空部门已经忽略了像“星际旅行”和“2001：太空冒险”这样的完美的幻想。

　　No longer. It is quite conceivable that 36,000km will prove the limit of human ambition. It is equally conceivable that the fantasy-made-reality of human space flight will return to fantasy. It is likely that the Space Age is over.

　　从此不再幻想。36,000公里成为人类抱负的极限，这件事会相当可信。人类太空飞翔的梦想成为现实，而退回想象也将变得同样可信。换言之，太空时代即将结束。

　　Bye-bye, sci-fi

　　再见，科学幻想

　　Today’s space cadets will, no doubt, oppose that claim vigorously. They will, in particular, point to the private ventures of people like Elon Musk⁹ in America and Sir Richard Branson in Britain, who hope to make human space flight commercially viable¹⁰. Indeed, the enterprise of such people might do just that. But the market seems small and vulnerable. One part, space tourism, is a luxury service that is, in any case, unlikely to go beyond low-Earth orbit at best (the cost of getting even as far as the moon would reduce the number of potential clients to a handful). The other source of revenue is ferrying astronauts to the benighted¹¹ International Space Station (ISS), surely the biggest waste of money, at $100 billion and counting, that has ever been built in the name of science.

　　毫无疑问，今天的太空学员们会强烈反对这个声称。他们尤其会提到希望以商业方式实现太空飞翔的个人冒险者，比如美国的Elon Musk和英国的Sir Richard Branson。这些计划冒险的人果真也会像太空学员们一样予以反对。但是这个市场似乎很小也很脆弱。一方面，太空旅行是一项奢侈的服务，不像冲出地球低轨道那么容易（这些如同与月球距离一般可观的巨额花费使潜在客人的数字减少到几个）。另外一方面，是把宇航员飞渡到蒙昧的国际太空站（ISS）所需要的资金来源，无疑是最大的浪费，已经花了千亿美金却还在增长，那个曾经是以科学的名义建立起来的。

　　The reason for that second objective is also the reason for thinking 2011 might, in the history books of the future, be seen as the year when the space cadets’ dream finally died. It marks the end of America’s space-shuttle programme, whose last mission is planned to launch on July 8th (see article, article). The shuttle was supposed to be a reusable truck that would make the business of putting people into orbit quotidian¹². Instead, it has been nothing but trouble. Twice, it has killed its crew. If it had been seen as the experimental vehicle it actually is, that would not have been a particular cause for concern; test pilots are killed all the time. But the pretence¹³ was maintained that the shuttle was a workaday craft. The technical term used by NASA, “Space Transportation System”, says it all.

　　上面提到的第二个理由也许将成为另外一个理由，即未来的历史书将把2011年视作太空学员梦想破灭的一年。它标志着美国航天计划的结束，该计划的最后使命是完成7月8日的发射。太空飞船被假设为一辆能重复使用的货车以期实现把人送往同步轨道的商业事宜。事实是它什么也没完成却带来了麻烦。它曾两次失事扼杀全部乘员（哥伦比亚号和挑战者号）。事实上它只是个试验性运输工具，要不它不应该有让人焦虑的特别理由；宇航员不时的被害。但是太空飞船只是一架普通飞机的假设需要维护。其使用的科学术语是NASA，其实它只是一个“太空运输系统”。

　　But the shuttle is now over. The ISS is due to be de-orbited, in the inelegant jargon¹⁴ of the field, in 2020. Once that happens, the game will be up. There is no appetite to return to the moon, let alone push on to Mars, El Dorado of space exploration. The technology could be there, but the passion has gone—at least in the traditional spacefaring powers, America and Russia.

　　太空飞船事业即将结束。到2020年，ISS将被重设轨道（这个领域的不雅的术语）。事情一旦发生，游戏就将终结。再也没有重返月球的欲望，更不用谈火星推进计划，太空探险的El Dorado计划。技术仍然存在，但是激情已然消失—至少就传统的太空强国，美国和苏联而言。

　　The space cadets’ other hope, China, might pick up the baton¹⁵. Certainly it claims it wishes, like President John Kennedy 50 years ago, to send people to the surface of the moon and return them safely to Earth. But the date for doing so seems elastic¹⁶. There is none of Kennedy’s “by the end of the decade” bravura¹⁷ about the announcements from Beijing. Moreover, even if China succeeds in matching America’s distant triumph, it still faces the question, “what next?” The chances are that the Chinese government, like Richard Nixon’s in 1972, will say “job done” and pull the plug on the whole shebang.

　　太空学员们的另一个希望之地，中国，也许将拾起接力棒。确定中国就像50年之前的约翰肯尼迪一样宣布并希望要把人类送达月球表面并安全返回地球。但完成这一愿望的日期看起来是有弹性的。来自北京的宣告缺乏肯尼迪的坚信“到这个年代末”。（阿波罗11号在1969年7月20日登陆月球）。而且，即使中国成功地对接了美国的遥远的胜利，它仍需面对这个问题，“接下来怎么样？”属于中国领导人的那一时刻，是否会像1972年的尼克松一样说“任务完成了”然后拔下整个系统的插头呢。

　　No bucks¹⁹, no Buck¹⁸ Rogers（3）

　　没有激情，也没有太空英雄

　　With luck, robotic exploration of the solar system will continue. But even there, the risk is of diminishing returns. Every planet has now been visited, and every planet with a solid surface bar Mercury has been landed on. Asteroids²⁰, moons and comets have all been added to the stamp album. Unless life turns up on Mars, or somewhere even more unexpected, public interest in the whole thing is likely to wane²¹. And it is the public that pays for it all.

　　好在针对太阳系的机器探测仍将持续。但即便如此，风险犹存，因为回报越来越少。现在太阳系中的每颗行星都已经被侦察过，每一颗表面是固体的行星，使者Mercury都已经登陆过。小行星，卫星和彗星已经增加到集邮册里。除非火星上出现生命，或者出现未曾预料之地，公众对探索宇宙的兴趣可能越来越弱。而为它买单的依然是广大的民众。

　　The future, then, looks bounded by that new outer limit of planet Earth, the geostationary orbit. Within it, the buzz of activity will continue to grow and fill the vacuum. This part of space will be tamed by humanity, as the species has tamed so many wildernesses²² in the past. Outside it, though, the vacuum will remain empty. There may be occasional forays, just as men sometimes leave their huddled²³ research bases in Antarctica to scuttle²⁴ briefly²⁵ across the ice cap before returning, for warmth, food and company, to base. But humanity’s dreams of a future beyond that final frontier have, largely, faded.

　　那么，未来看来要被限制在地球的新的外边界之内，即同步轨道。在这层空间里，各种活动的嗡嗡声将继续增长而充满了整个空间。这部分空间将被人类驯服，就像在过去物种驯服了这么多的荒野。而36,000之外的空间仍将是空的。可能也会有偶尔的突袭，就像在南极考察的人们有时为了温暖、食物和朋友离开他们的扎堆而设的研究基地，在返回之前，这些基地早已沉没在南极洲的冰盖之下。但人类想超越领域最前沿的未来梦想已经，褪色很多。

　　1） Star Trek is an American science fiction entertainment franchise²⁶ created by Gene²⁷ Roddenberry. The core of Star Trek is its six television series: The Original Series, The Animated²⁸ Series, The Next Generation, Deep Space Nine, Voyager, and Enterprise.

　　2） 2001: A Space Odyssey is a science-fiction narrative²⁹, produced in 1968 as both a film, directed by Stanley Kubrick, and a novel, written by Arthur C. Clarke. Arthur C. Clarke was a British science fiction author, inventor, and futurist

　　3） Anthony Rogers is a fictional³⁰ character that first appeared in Armageddon 2419 A.D. by Philip Francis Nowlan in the August 1928 issue of the pulp³¹ magazine Amazing Stories. A sequel, The Airlords of Han, was published in the March 1929 issue.

1 encyclopedia   

n.百科全书

参考例句：

• The encyclopedia fell to the floor with a thud.那本百科全书砰的一声掉到地上。
• Geoff is a walking encyclopedia.He knows about everything.杰夫是个活百科全书，他什么都懂。

2 hovers   

鸟( hover的第三人称单数 )； 靠近（某事物）； （人）徘徊； 犹豫

参考例句：

• A hawk hovers in the sky. 一只老鹰在天空盘旋。
• A hen hovers her chicks. 一只母鸡在孵小鸡。

3 forestry   

n.森林学；林业

参考例句：

• At present, the Chinese forestry is being at a significant transforming period. 当前, 我国的林业正处于一个重大的转折时期。
• Anhua is one of the key forestry counties in Hunan province. 安化县是湖南省重点林区县之一。

4 warfare   

n.战争(状态)；斗争；冲突

参考例句：

• He addressed the audience on the subject of atomic warfare.他向听众演讲有关原子战争的问题。
• Their struggle consists mainly in peasant guerrilla warfare.他们的斗争主要是农民游击战。

5 envisaged   

想像，设想( envisage的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He envisaged an old age of loneliness and poverty. 他面对着一个孤独而贫困的晚年。
• Henry Ford envisaged an important future for the motor car. 亨利·福特为汽车设想了一个远大前程。

6 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

7 trek   

vi.作长途艰辛的旅行；n.长途艰苦的旅行

参考例句：

• We often go pony-trek in the summer.夏季我们经常骑马旅行。
• It took us the whole day to trek across the rocky terrain.我们花了一整天的时间艰难地穿过那片遍布岩石的地带。

8 odyssey   

n.长途冒险旅行；一连串的冒险

参考例句：

• The march to Travnik was the final stretch of a 16-hour odyssey.去特拉夫尼克的这段路是长达16小时艰险旅行的最后一程。
• His odyssey of passion, friendship,love,and revenge was now finished.他的热情、友谊、爱情和复仇的漫长历程，到此结束了。

9 musk   

n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物，香猫

参考例句：

• Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
• She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。

10 viable   

adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的

参考例句：

• The scheme is economically viable.这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
• The economy of the country is not viable.这个国家经济是难以维持的。

11 benighted   

adj.蒙昧的

参考例句：

• Listen to both sides and you will be enlightened,heed only one side and you will be benighted.兼听则明，偏信则暗。
• Famine hit that benighted country once more.饥荒再次席卷了那个蒙昧的国家。

12 quotidian   

adj.每日的，平凡的

参考例句：

• Television has become part of our quotidian existence.电视已成为我们日常生活的一部分。
• Most solutions to the problem of global warming are tediousl,almost oppressively,quotidian.大多数应对全球变暖的措施都是冗长乏味，几近压制，以及司空见惯的。

13 pretence   

n.假装，作假；借口，口实；虚伪；虚饰

参考例句：

• The government abandoned any pretence of reform. 政府不再装模作样地进行改革。
• He made a pretence of being happy at the party.晚会上他假装很高兴。

14 jargon   

n.术语，行话

参考例句：

• They will not hear critics with their horrible jargon.他们不愿意听到评论家们那些可怕的行话。
• It is important not to be overawed by the mathematical jargon.要紧的是不要被数学的术语所吓倒.

15 baton   

n.乐队用指挥杖

参考例句：

• With the baton the conductor was beating time.乐队指挥用指挥棒打拍子。
• The conductor waved his baton,and the band started up.指挥挥动指挥棒，乐队开始演奏起来。

16 elastic   

n.橡皮圈，松紧带；adj.有弹性的；灵活的

参考例句：

• Rubber is an elastic material.橡胶是一种弹性材料。
• These regulations are elastic.这些规定是有弹性的。

17 bravura   

n.华美的乐曲；勇敢大胆的表现；adj.壮勇华丽的

参考例句：

• The music ends with a display of bravura.音乐以一段壮丽的乐章结束。
• This picture has a bravura of execution.这幅画作风大胆。

18 buck   

n.雄鹿，雄兔；v.马离地跳跃

参考例句：

• The boy bent curiously to the skeleton of the buck.这个男孩好奇地弯下身去看鹿的骸骨。
• The female deer attracts the buck with high-pitched sounds.雌鹿以尖声吸引雄鹿。

19 bucks   

n.雄鹿( buck的名词复数 )；钱；（英国十九世纪初的）花花公子；（用于某些表达方式）责任v.（马等）猛然弓背跃起( buck的第三人称单数 )；抵制；猛然震荡；马等尥起后蹄跳跃

参考例句：

• They cost ten bucks. 这些值十元钱。
• They are hunting for bucks. 他们正在猎雄兔。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 asteroids   

n.小行星( asteroid的名词复数 )；海盘车，海星

参考例句：

• Asteroids,also known as "minor planets",are numerous in the outer space. 小行星，亦称为“小型行星”，在外太空中不计其数。
• Most stars probably have their quota of planets, meteorids, comets, and asteroids. 多数恒星也许还拥有若干行星、流星、彗星和小行星。

21 wane   

n.衰微，亏缺，变弱；v.变小，亏缺，呈下弦

参考例句：

• The moon is on the wane.月亮渐亏。
• Her enthusiasm for him was beginning to wane.她对他的热情在开始减退。

22 wildernesses   

荒野( wilderness的名词复数 )； 沙漠； （政治家）在野； 不再当政（或掌权）

参考例句：

• Antarctica is one of the last real wildernesses left on the earth. 南极洲是地球上所剩不多的旷野之一。
• Dartmoor is considered by many to be one of Britain's great nature wildernesses. Dartmoor被很多人认为是英国最大的荒原之一。

23 huddled   

挤在一起（huddle的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• We huddled together for warmth. 我们挤在一块取暖。
• We huddled together to keep warm. 我们挤在一起来保暖。

24 scuttle   

v.急赶，疾走，逃避；n.天窗；舷窗

参考例句：

• There was a general scuttle for shelter when the rain began to fall heavily.下大雨了，人们都飞跑着寻找躲雨的地方。
• The scuttle was open,and the good daylight shone in.明朗的亮光从敞开的小窗中照了进来。

25 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

26 franchise   

n.特许，特权，专营权，特许权

参考例句：

• Catering in the schools is run on a franchise basis.学校餐饮服务以特许权经营。
• The United States granted the franchise to women in 1920.美国于1920年给妇女以参政权。

27 gene   

n.遗传因子，基因

参考例句：

• A single gene may have many effects.单一基因可能具有很多种效应。
• The targeting of gene therapy has been paid close attention.其中基因治疗的靶向性是值得密切关注的问题之一。

28 animated   

adj.生气勃勃的，活跃的，愉快的

参考例句：

• His observations gave rise to an animated and lively discussion.他的言论引起了一场气氛热烈而活跃的讨论。
• We had an animated discussion over current events last evening.昨天晚上我们热烈地讨论时事。

29 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

30 fictional   

adj.小说的，虚构的

参考例句：

• The names of the shops are entirely fictional.那些商店的名字完全是虚构的。
• The two authors represent the opposite poles of fictional genius.这两位作者代表了天才小说家两个极端。

31 pulp   

n.果肉，纸浆；v.化成纸浆，除去...果肉，制成纸浆

参考例句：

• The pulp of this watermelon is too spongy.这西瓜瓤儿太肉了。
• The company manufactures pulp and paper products.这个公司制造纸浆和纸产品。