经济学人116:中国经济,李克强好样的!

 　　China's economy

　　中国经济

　　Keqiang ker-ching

　　李克强好样的！

　　How China’s next prime minister keeps tabs on its economy

　　看下一任中国总理如何看管自国经济

　　Dec 9th 2010 | HONG KONG | from PRINT EDITION

　　IF CHINA’S deputy prime minister, Li Keqiang, succeeds his boss, Wen Jiabao, in 2013, as is likely, he will become his country’s top economic policymaker. But he may not pay much heed¹ to the figures provincial² officials feed him. In 2007 he told America’s ambassador that GDP figures in Liaoning, where he was then party chief, were “man-made” and unreliable, according to a State Department memo³ released by WikiLeaks.

　　如果国务院副总理李克强，在2013年的国家领导人选举中坐上温家宝的位子，那么，他将成为该国经济的最高决策人。这似乎也极有可能成真。但他是不会把各省官员上报给他的数据太当回事的。根据维基解密近日公布的中国国务院数据，2007年，时任辽宁省委书记的李克强曾告诉美国大使，称该省的GDP的统计数字全是“人造的”，根本就不可信。

　　Provincial officials have long been suspected of overstating growth. Adding their figures together suggests that China’s economy was $364 billion bigger in 2009 than the total in the national accounts. Mr Li preferred to track Liaoning’s economy by looking at other indicators⁴: the cargo⁵ volume on the province’s railways, electricity consumption and loans disbursed⁶ by banks.

　　长久以来，中国各省官员就一直被怀疑有夸大该国经济增速。将它们的这些数据一相加，2009年的中国经济总量居然比国民账户多出了3640亿美元。李克强认为，评估辽宁省的经济时，应看看其他数据：该省的铁路货运量、用电量以及银行发放的贷款额。

　　In Mr Li’s honour, The Economist⁷ has created a “Keqiang index” for China’s economy, combining his three preferred indicators (see chart). It reveals an economy that is as dynamic as the official figures suggest, but a great deal more volatile⁸. Electricity consumption and cargo traffic both shrank in the final months of 2008 and in early 2009, implying that China’s economy suffered more grievously than the official figures allow. A loan surge in 2009 presaged⁹ the rapid recovery that followed.

　　为表敬意，本刊将李克强所称的三个数字结合起来，创立了评估中国经济的“克强指数”（见上图）。该指数与官方发布数据显示的中国经济动态变化趋势类似，但在波动范围上，要大得多。用电量和铁路货运量在08年末到09年初曾大幅下跌，可见，中国经济并不如官方数字显示描绘得那么风平浪静。而2009年的贷款额激增则预示着中国经济在接下来的日子里迅速回暖。

　　It should come as a relief to all those who doubt China’s economic statistics (ie, just about everybody) that the people in charge of its economy do not entirely¹⁰ trust them either.

　　对于那些对中国经济数据存疑的人（或者应该说是几乎每个人）来说，这算得上是某种宽慰了——他们的国民经济掌权者终于不再满心信赖那些数据了。

1 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。

2 provincial   

adj.省的，地方的；n．外省人，乡下人

参考例句：

• City dwellers think country folk have provincial attitudes.城里人以为乡下人思想迂腐。
• Two leading cadres came down from the provincial capital yesterday.昨天从省里下来了两位领导干部。

3 memo   

n.照会，备忘录；便笺；通知书；规章

参考例句：

• Do you want me to send the memo out?您要我把这份备忘录分发出去吗？
• Can you type a memo for me?您能帮我打一份备忘录吗？

4 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

5 cargo   

n.(一只船或一架飞机运载的)货物

参考例句：

• The ship has a cargo of about 200 ton.这条船大约有200吨的货物。
• A lot of people discharged the cargo from a ship.许多人从船上卸下货物。

6 disbursed   

v.支出，付出( disburse的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In the 2000—2008 school year, $426.5 million was disbursed to 349085 students. 2000至2008学年，共有349085名学生获发津贴，总额达4.265亿元。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The bank has disbursed over $350m for the project. 银行已经为这个项目支付了超过3.5亿美元。 来自辞典例句

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

9 presaged   

v.预示，预兆( presage的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• This experience presaged my later return as CEA chairman in 2003. 这次的经历预示了我作为经济顾问理事会主席在2003年的回归。 来自互联网
• He emphasized self-expression, the warm personal note presaged by C.P.E. Bach and Mozart. 他强调自我表现，这种热情的、带有个人色彩的表现足巴赫和莫扎特所预示过的。 来自互联网

10 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。