经济学人502:飓风与气候变化

 　　Asia

　　亚洲

　　Cyclones¹ and climate change

　　飓风与气候变化

　　The new normal?

　　习以为常？

　　Physics suggests that storms will get worse as the planet warms. But it is too early to tell if it is actually happening

　　物理学研究表明全球变暖将导致更猛烈的风暴，但一切尚未可知

　　WAS typhoon Haiyan the strongest recorded storm to make landfall?

　　台风海燕是有记录以来的最强登陆风暴吗？

　　Meteorologists will never know. Reliable records go back only a few decades.

　　气象学家们恐怕永远都不会知道。可靠记录只能回溯几十年。

　　But it is surely one of them. Besides the devastation² and the death toll³, one way to assess its potency⁴ is to compare it with Katrina, the hurricane that devastated⁵ New Orleans in 2005.

　　不过可以肯定，这是史上最强风暴之一。除了统计摧毁的建筑和死亡的人数，评估该风暴威力的另一个办法，是将它和2005年摧毁新奥良的卡特里娜飓风作比较。

　　At its most intense, Haiyan's peak wind speeds were probably greater than 300kph.

　　在高峰期，海燕的最高风速可能超过每小时300公里，

　　The best estimate for Katrina, when it hit land, is around 200kph.

　　而卡特里娜登陆时，其风速估计在每小时200公里左右。

　　Regardless of its precise position in the historical hierarchy⁶, Haiyan—like Katrina—has provoked discussion about the effects of global warming on tropical storms.

　　且不考虑台风海燕在历史上排行第几，海燕—如同卡特里娜—已激起关于全球变暖对热带风暴影响的讨论。

　　Naderev Sano, the Philippines' representative at a climate summit in Warsaw, was unequivocal, daring doubters to visit his homeland.

　　在华沙举行的联合国气候变化大会上，菲律宾代表Naderev Sano态度坚定，他请全球变暖效应的怀疑者们去他的祖国看一看，

　　The trend we now see is that more destructive storms will be the new norm, he said.

　　并说：我们从眼下的趋势可以看到，更具破坏性的风暴将成为常态。

　　In theory, a warmer world should indeed produce more potent⁷ cyclones.

　　理论上，全球变暖确实将引发更具威力的风暴。

　　Such storms are fuelled by evaporation⁸ from the ocean.

　　这类风暴来自海洋的水气蒸腾。

　　Warmer water means faster evaporation, which means more energy to power the storm.

　　水温越高，蒸发越快，这意味着暴风将来得更猛烈。

　　A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which means more rain.

　　而温暖的大气将储存更多水分，这将造成更多的降雨。

　　But other factors complicate⁹ things.

　　不过其他一些因素使事情变得复杂。

　　Tropical cyclones cannot form when wind speeds in the upper and lower atmosphere differ too much.

　　当高层和底层大气的风速相差悬殊时，热带气旋便无法形成。

　　Climate models suggest, in the North Atlantic at least, that such divergent winds may be more common in a warmer world.

　　气候模型表明，至少在北大西洋，如果气温升高，那这类风速甚异的气流可能会变得更常见。

　　The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reckons that the frequency of cyclones will stay the same or decrease while their average intensity¹⁰ goes up.

　　政府间气候变化专门委员会估计，当飓风的平均强度增加时，它的频率或许会保持不变甚至降低。

　　That is the forecast. But the evidence so far is messy.

　　这些都只是预测。可迄今为止的证据相当混乱。

　　Meteorological records are of uneven¹¹ quality, and tropical storms vary widely in intensity, which makes spotting trends tricky¹².

　　气象记录的质量良莠不齐，热带风暴的强度变化不定，这使得认清趋势的任务变得棘手。

　　One potent storm from 1979, Typhoon Tip, holds the record for the lowest atmospheric¹³ pressure recorded, another measure of a storm's intensity.

　　另一项台风强度的测算显示，1979年的超级强台风泰培保持了最低大气压的记录。

　　Yet levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, were only 337 parts per million in 1979, compared with 394ppm in 2012.

　　然而，相比2012年的394ppm，主要温室气体二氧化碳的浓度在1979年仅为337ppm。

　　The IPCC concludes that, although there is good evidence for more and stronger Atlantic hurricanes over the past 40 years, there is no consensus¹⁴ on the cause of them.

　　IPCC推断，虽然有充分的证据显示，在过去的40年间，大西洋的飓风正变得更为频繁和猛烈，但IPCC表示，对于此现象的起因，业内并未形成共识。

　　Worldwide, there is no trend in either the frequency or the intensity of tropical storms.

　　在世界范围内，关于热带风暴发生的频率或强度的趋势依旧无迹可寻。

　　And, given the rarity of such storms as Typhoon Haiyan, it will take a long time for any trend to become apparent.

　　不仅如此，由于像台风海燕这样的罕见风暴的出现，在相当长一段时间内，风暴的趋势将愈加扑朔迷离。

　　1.go back 回转； 回顾

　　I can't go back and end this now.

　　我现在不能回去并结束这一切了。

　　Don't go back, the reasons you left are still the same.

　　不要回去，当初那些促使你离开的理由并不会消失。

　　2.death toll 死亡人数

　　The death toll from the shooting remains¹⁵ at 12.

　　枪击案死亡人数目前依旧是12人。

　　With a death toll of children that was terrifying.

　　有一个孩子死亡的消息是可怕的。

　　3.at least 至少

　　Read at least 30 books.

　　至少读30本书。

　　At least august was quiet.

　　至少八月是安静的。

1 cyclones   

n.气旋( cyclone的名词复数 )；旋风；飓风；暴风

参考例句：

• The pricipal objective in designing cyclones is to create a vortex. 设计旋风除尘器的主要目的在于造成涡旋运动。 来自辞典例句
• Middle-latitude cyclones originate at the popar front. 中纬度地区的气旋发源于极锋。 来自辞典例句

2 devastation   

n.毁坏；荒废；极度震惊或悲伤

参考例句：

• The bomb caused widespread devastation. 炸弹造成大面积破坏。
• There was devastation on every side. 到处都是破坏的创伤。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

4 potency   

n. 效力，潜能

参考例句：

• Alcohol increases the drug's potency.酒精能增加这种毒品的效力。
• Sunscreen can lose its potency if left over winter in the bathroom cabinet.如果把防晒霜在盥洗室的壁橱里放一个冬天，就有可能失效。

5 devastated   

v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的

参考例句：

• The bomb devastated much of the old part of the city. 这颗炸弹炸毁了旧城的一大片地方。
• His family is absolutely devastated. 他的一家感到极为震惊。

6 hierarchy   

n.等级制度；统治集团，领导层

参考例句：

• There is a rigid hierarchy of power in that country.那个国家有一套严密的权力等级制度。
• She's high up in the management hierarchy.她在管理阶层中地位很高。

7 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

8 evaporation   

n.蒸发，消失

参考例句：

• Be careful not to lose too much liquid by evaporation.小心不要因蒸发失去太多水分。
• Our bodies can sweat,thereby losing heat by evaporation.我们的身体能出汗，由此可以蒸发散热。

9 complicate   

vt.使复杂化，使混乱，使难懂

参考例句：

• There is no need to complicate matters.没有必要使问题复杂化。
• These events will greatly complicate the situation.这些事件将使局势变得极其复杂。

10 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

11 uneven   

adj.不平坦的，不规则的，不均匀的

参考例句：

• The sidewalk is very uneven—be careful where you walk.这人行道凹凸不平—走路时请小心。
• The country was noted for its uneven distribution of land resources.这个国家以土地资源分布不均匀出名。

12 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

13 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

14 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

15 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。