2022年经济学人 噪声如何影响我们的决策

Books and Arts -- Book Review

文学与艺术——书评

Decision-making -- Noise pollution

决策——噪声污染

Noise. By Daniel Kahneman.

《噪声》，作者：丹尼尔·卡纳曼。

Noise is unwanted variation in judgments² that should be identical, which leads to inaccurate³ and unfair decisions.

噪声是本应一致的判断中多余的变数，它会导向不准确、不公正的决策。

It is all around people all the time, though individuals fail to notice it.

它时时刻刻存在于人们周围，尽管人们并没有注意到它。

To get a sense of how it happens, perform a “noise audit” right now: open your phone’s stopwatch app and practice counting ten seconds.

要了解它是如何出现的，现在就可以进行一次“噪音审查”：打开手机里的秒表软件，练习数十秒。

Now, with your eyes closed, count several times, hitting the lap button each time you believe ten seconds have elapsed.

现在，闭上眼睛，数几次，每当你认为已经过去了10秒就按下按钮计为一次。

Your answers weren’t perfect but noisy: slightly above or below the ten-second mark.

你的答案并不完美，而是充满噪声：比10秒长一点或短一点。

And if they were consistently wrong in one direction, then there is bias⁴ too, which is a different form of error (you counted too quickly or slowly).

如果结果总是在某一个方向上产生错误，那么这里还存在了偏差，这是另一种形式的错误（你数得太快或太慢）。

The problem of bias in decisions is well known and there are strategies that people can adopt to minimise it.

决策中存在偏差是众所周知的问题，人们可以采取一些策略将其影响将至最低。

For example, customers may be “anchored” on the first price they are presented with in a transaction, so they learn to consciously discard it before they negotiate.

例如，客户可能会“锁定”他们在交易中看到的第一个价格，所以他们学会了在谈判之前有意地放弃这个价格。

But noise is different precisely⁵ because it is less apparent.

但噪声之所以不同，恰恰是因为它不那么明显。

“It becomes visible only when we think statistically⁷ about an ensemble⁸ of similar judgments. Indeed, it then becomes hard to miss,” Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein write in their new book.

“只有当我们从统计学的角度考虑一系列相似的判断时，它才会显现出来。事实上，到那时，它会变得很难被忽视。”丹尼尔·卡尼曼、奥利维尔·西伯尼和卡斯·桑斯坦在他们的新书中写道。

The divergences⁹ are stark¹⁰.

差异是显而易见的。

In a courthouse in Miami, one judge would grant refugees asylum¹¹ in 88% of cases while another would do so 5% of the time.

在迈阿密的一家法院，一名法官会在88%的案件中给予难民庇护，而另一名法官则只会在5%的案件中给予这样的结果。

A large study of radiologists found that the false-positive rate ranged from 1% to 64%, meaning that two-thirds of the time, a radiologist said a mammogram showed cancer when it was not cancerous.

一项针对放射科医生的大型研究发现，假阳性率从1%到64%不等，放射科医生说，这意味着三分之二的情况下，乳房X光片会将非癌症的结果显示为癌症。

Doctors are more likely to prescribe opioids at the end of a long day.

医生在漫长的一天即将结束的时段更有可能开出阿片类药物。

Judges made harsher decisions leading up to their breaks and on hotter days.

法官在间歇休息前和炎热的日子里会做出更严厉的判决。

An insurance firm’s underwriters assessed premiums¹² that varied¹³ by 55%, a difference that was five times greater than its management had imagined.

一家保险公司的承保人评估的保费相差达到55%，这一差额比管理层预想的要大五倍。

Not only do individuals differ with their peers, they often fail to agree with themselves.

一个人的决策不仅常与同伴不同，而且常常无法与自己达成一致。

Wine experts tasting the same samples for a second time scored fewer than one in five identically.

葡萄酒专家在第二次品尝相同样品时，与之前评判一致的不到五分之一。

Four out of five fingerprint¹⁴ examiners altered their original identification decision when presented with contextual information that should not have been a factor in matching prints.

五分之四的指纹鉴定员在看到一些相关信息后改变了最初的识别决定，而这些信息本不应该成为影响指纹匹配的因素。

In one medical study, assessing angiograms, physicians disagreed with their earlier judgments more than half the time.

在一项评估血管造影的医学研究中，医生们在超过一半的情况下不同意他们早期的判断。

Noise is sometimes good.

噪声有时是有利的。

When different investors¹⁵ size up a trade or book reviewers reach different assessments¹⁶, the diversity of opinion is beneficial.

当不同的投资者评估同一笔交易，或者书评家得出不同的评论时，意见的多样性是有益的。

But more commonly it creates problems.

但多数情况下，噪声会带来问题。

In law noise means unfairness.

在法律上，噪声意味着不公平。

In business it can be costly¹⁷.

在商业上，噪声可能让人付出高昂的代价。

Yet it can be reduced.

不过，噪声是可以被削弱的。

The authors’ remedies include a “noise audit” to measure the degree of disagreement on the same cases, to quantify the variation that is usually invisible.

作者们的补救措施包括用“噪音审查”来衡量对同一事件的不一致程度，将通常看不见的差异量化。

They also call for better “decision hygiene” such as designating an observer for group decisions, to prevent common biases¹⁸ and noisy judgments.

他们还提倡改善“决策清洁”，比如在集体决策中指定一名观察员，以防止出现常见的偏差和噪声下产生的判断。

For example, they can ensure that participants in a team reach independent assessments before coming together as a group to aggregate¹⁹ their decisions.

例如，他们可以确保团队中的参与者在聚集起来进行决策之前先进行独立的评估。

Another solution is to dispense²⁰ with people altogether.

另一个解决办法是完全去除人的参与。

Statistical⁶ models, pre-determined rules and algorithms in many cases are more accurate than human judgment¹.

在许多情况下，统计模型、预先确定的规则和算法比人类的判断更准确。

The authors welcome artificial intelligence to make many decisions in society, but acknowledge that people are predisposed to resisting their answers, for lack of the personal, emotional quality in decision-making—even if it leads to inferior, or at least variable, decisions.

作者乐于看到人工智能在社会上做出许多决定，但也承认人们倾向于拒绝人工智能给出的答案，因其在决策中缺乏人性的和感性的特质——即使这会导致产生较差的，或至少是多变的决策。

The trio speaks with credibility.

三位作者的说法都很有可信度。

Mr Kahneman is a Nobel laureate whose ideas on bias in human reasoning have reshaped economics and society; Mr Sunstein is a polymath scholar at Harvard and occasional government official putting his ideas into policy; Mr Sibony is a former McKinsey partner who teaches decision science at a French business school.

卡尼曼是一位诺贝尔奖获得者，他关于人类推论中的偏差的观点重塑了经济学和社会；桑斯坦是哈佛大学一位博学多才的学者，偶尔会担任政府官员的角色将自己的想法付诸政策；西伯尼曾是麦肯锡的合伙人，现在法国一所商学院教授决策科学。

Yet despite the book’s title, the authors struggled to extract the signal from the noise, so to speak, needing some 400 pages to make their case.

然而，尽管这本书讲的就是噪声，作者们还是得艰难地从噪声中提取信息，这么说吧，他们需要用大约400页的篇幅才能阐明他们的观点。

A tighter argument would have enhanced the ideas they present.

他们本应提供更严谨的论据来加强自己的观点。

1 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

2 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

3 inaccurate   

adj.错误的，不正确的，不准确的

参考例句：

• The book is both inaccurate and exaggerated.这本书不但不准确，而且夸大其词。
• She never knows the right time because her watch is inaccurate.她从来不知道准确的时间因为她的表不准。

4 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

5 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

6 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

7 statistically   

ad.根据统计数据来看，从统计学的观点来看

参考例句：

• The sample of building permits is larger and therefore, statistically satisfying. 建筑许可数的样本比较大，所以统计数据更令人满意。
• The results of each test would have to be statistically independent. 每次试验的结果在统计上必须是独立的。

8 ensemble   

n.合奏(唱)组；全套服装；整体，总效果

参考例句：

• We should consider the buildings as an ensemble.我们应把那些建筑物视作一个整体。
• It is ensemble music for up to about ten players,with one player to a part.它是最多十人演奏的合奏音乐，每人担任一部分。

9 divergences   

n.分叉( divergence的名词复数 )；分歧；背离；离题

参考例句：

• This overall figure conceals wide divergences between the main industrial countries. 这项综合数据掩盖了主要工业国家间的巨大分歧。 来自辞典例句
• Inform Production Planner of any divergences from production plan. 生产计划有任何差异通知生产计划员。 来自互联网

10 stark   

adj.荒凉的；严酷的；完全的；adv.完全地

参考例句：

• The young man is faced with a stark choice.这位年轻人面临严峻的抉择。
• He gave a stark denial to the rumor.他对谣言加以完全的否认。

11 asylum   

n.避难所，庇护所，避难

参考例句：

• The people ask for political asylum.人们请求政治避难。
• Having sought asylum in the West for many years,they were eventually granted it.他们最终获得了在西方寻求多年的避难权。

12 premiums   

n.费用( premium的名词复数 )；保险费；额外费用；（商品定价、贷款利息等以外的）加价

参考例句：

• He paid premiums on his life insurance last year. 他去年付了人寿保险费。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Moves are afoot to increase car insurance premiums. 现正在酝酿提高汽车的保险费。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 varied   

adj.多样的，多变化的

参考例句：

• The forms of art are many and varied.艺术的形式是多种多样的。
• The hotel has a varied programme of nightly entertainment.宾馆有各种晚间娱乐活动。

14 fingerprint   

n.指纹；vt.取...的指纹

参考例句：

• The fingerprint expert was asked to testify at the trial.指纹专家应邀出庭作证。
• The court heard evidence from a fingerprint expert.法院听取了指纹专家的证词。

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

16 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

17 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

18 biases   

偏见( bias的名词复数 )； 偏爱； 特殊能力； 斜纹

参考例句：

• Stereotypes represent designer or researcher biases and assumptions, rather than factual data. 它代表设计师或者研究者的偏见和假设，而不是实际的数据。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• The net effect of biases on international comparisons is easily summarized. 偏差对国际比较的基本影响容易概括。

19 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

20 dispense   

vt.分配，分发；配(药)，发(药)；实施

参考例句：

• Let us dispense the food.咱们来分发这食物。
• The charity has been given a large sum of money to dispense as it sees fit.这个慈善机构获得一大笔钱，可自行适当分配。