2022年经济学人 油价还有望降下来吗？(2)

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In Argentina an agreement with the imf that involves cutting energy subsidies¹ cost Martín Guzman his job as economy minister on July 2nd.

7月2日，阿根廷与国际货币基金组织达成的一项涉及削减能源补贴的协议使马丁·古兹曼在失去了经济部长的职位。

It is not hard to see why governments are so sensitive to the price of fuel.

不难看出为什么各国政府对燃料价格如此敏感。

Latin America is a region of long distances in which roads are paramount² in the movement of both goods and people.

拉丁美洲是一个距离遥远的地区，在该地区，道路在货物和人员流动中都起着至关重要的作用。

In Venezuela in 1989 an abrupt³ decision by Carlos Andres Perez, shortly after his lavish⁴ inauguration⁵ as president, to double the petrol price triggered days of rioting that cost some 400 lives.

1989年，在委内瑞拉，卡洛斯·安德烈斯·佩雷斯在奢华的总统就职典礼后不久突然决定将汽油价格提高一倍，引发了数日的骚乱，导致约400人丧生。

These events discredited⁶ Venezuelan democracy and paved the way for Hugo Chávez, a populist strongman elected a decade later.

这些事件破坏了委内瑞拉民主的声誉，并为十年后当选的民粹主义强人乌戈·查韦斯铺平了道路。

When Brazil began to phase out fuel subsidies, a truckers’ strike lasting⁷ a fortnight in 2018 brought the country to a halt and helped Mr Bolsonaro, who supported it, win that year’s election.

2018年，当巴西开始逐步取消燃料补贴时，持续了两周的卡车司机罢工使该国陷入停顿，并帮助支持该计划的博尔索纳罗赢得了当年的选举。

In Ecuador Mr Lasso’s predecessor⁸, Lenín Moreno, was almost toppled by an insurrection by indigenous⁹ groups and leftists against a cut in fuel subsidies in 2019.

在厄瓜多尔，拉索的前任莱宁·莫雷诺在2019年几乎被土著团体和左翼分子反对削减燃料补贴的起义推翻。

While across-the-board fuel subsidies may be good politics, they are bad policy.

尽管全面的燃料补贴可能是好的政治手段，但却是糟糕的政策。

Since the better-off consume more petrol than the poor, they do nothing to reduce inequality.

由于较富裕的人比穷人消耗更多的汽油，他们对减少不平等毫无作用。

And they run counter to the region’s commitments to reduce fossil-fuel use to combat climate change.

它们与该地区减少化石燃料使用以应对气候变化的承诺背道而驰。

It would be better to blunt the impact of inflation through targeted handouts¹⁰ to poorer citizens, but these lack the political impact of price caps.

更好的办法是通过有针对性地向贫困公民发放救济品来削弱通胀的影响，但这些措施缺乏价格上限的政治影响。

Many governments will find it hard to afford higher fuel subsidies for long.

许多政府将发现很难长期承受更高的燃料补贴。

While they may help with inflation, they add to deficits¹¹.

尽管它们可能有助于缓解通胀，但增加了赤字。

Latin America’s recovery from the pandemic slump¹² was stronger than many expected, partly because of higher prices for its exports of oil, metals and foodstuffs¹³.

拉丁美洲从疫情低迷中复苏的势头比许多人预期的要强劲，部分原因是其石油、金属和食品出口价格上涨。

The imf this week raised its forecast for growth in the region this year to 3%, from 2.5%.

国际货币基金组织本周将该地区今年的增长预期从2.5%上调至3%。

But the going is getting rougher: the fund cut its projection¹⁴ for next year by a similar amount, to 2%.

但情况变得更加艰难：国际货币基金组织将明年的预测下调了类似的幅度，至2%。

Inflation took off in the region last year, prompting central banks to raise interest rates.

去年，该地区的通货膨胀开始加剧，促使各国央行提高利率。

As governments offered help during the pandemic, public debt rose from an average of 58% of gdp in 2019 to 72% last year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.

根据美洲开发银行的数据，由于各国政府在疫情期间提供帮助，公共债务占GDP的比例从2019年的平均58%上升到去年的72%。

Higher interest rates mean that debt is more expensive to service.

更高的利率意味着偿还债务的成本更高。

Fiscal¹⁵ worries are “surfacing again and will become uglier in the second half of this year”, says William Jackson of Capital Economics, a consultancy.

英国顶级经济咨询机构凯投宏观的威廉·杰克逊表示，财政方面的担忧“再次浮出水面，并将在今年下半年变得更加严重”。

Apart from those in Argentina and perhaps Ecuador, governments do not face immediate¹⁶ financing problems, he says.

他表示，除了阿根廷，或许还有厄瓜多尔，政府都不会面临迫在眉睫的融资问题。

“But at some point the region will have to carry out a fiscal adjustment.”

“但在某个时候，该地区将不得不进行财政调整。”

The political leaders will hope that by then oil prices are falling again.

政治领导人会希望到那时油价会再次下跌。

1 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 paramount   

a.最重要的，最高权力的

参考例句：

• My paramount object is to save the Union and destroy slavery.我的最高目标是拯救美国，摧毁奴隶制度。
• Nitrogen is of paramount importance to life on earth.氮对地球上的生命至关重要。

3 abrupt   

adj.突然的，意外的；唐突的，鲁莽的

参考例句：

• The river takes an abrupt bend to the west.这河突然向西转弯。
• His abrupt reply hurt our feelings.他粗鲁的回答伤了我们的感情。

4 lavish   

adj.无节制的；浪费的；vt.慷慨地给予，挥霍

参考例句：

• He despised people who were lavish with their praises.他看不起那些阿谀奉承的人。
• The sets and costumes are lavish.布景和服装极尽奢华。

5 inauguration   

n.开幕、就职典礼

参考例句：

• The inauguration of a President of the United States takes place on January 20.美国总统的就职典礼于一月二十日举行。
• Three celebrated tenors sang at the president's inauguration.3位著名的男高音歌手在总统就职仪式上演唱。

6 discredited   

不足信的，不名誉的

参考例句：

• The reactionary authorities are between two fires and have been discredited. 反动当局弄得进退维谷，不得人心。
• Her honour was discredited in the newspapers. 她的名声被报纸败坏了。

7 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

8 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

9 indigenous   

adj.土产的，土生土长的，本地的

参考例句：

• Each country has its own indigenous cultural tradition.每个国家都有自己本土的文化传统。
• Indians were the indigenous inhabitants of America.印第安人是美洲的土著居民。

10 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

11 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

12 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

13 foodstuffs   

食物，食品( foodstuff的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Imports of foodstuffs accounted for a small proportion of total imports. 食物进口仅占总进口额的一小部份。
• Many basic foodstuffs, such as bread and milk, are tax-free. 许多基本食物如牛奶和面包是免税的。

14 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

15 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

16 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。