2022年经济学人 投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?（1）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Recurring¹ nightmares

梧桐树：噩梦重现

How should investors³ prepare for repeat inflation shocks?

投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?

Buy stocks so you can dream, buy bonds so you can sleep—or so the saying goes.

俗话说，买股票是为了做梦，买债券是为了睡觉。

A wise investor² will aim to maximise their returns relative to risk, defined as volatility⁴ in the rate of return, and therefore hold some investments that will do well in good times and some in bad.

明智的投资者会致力于最大化其相对于风险的回报(即回报率的波动性)，因此他们持有的投资既有在景气时期表现良好的，也有在不景气时期也会表现良好的。

Stocks surge when the economy soars; bonds climb during a crisis.

经济腾飞时，股市会暴涨；而在危机期间，债券会攀升。

A mix of the two—often 60% stocks and 40% bonds—should help investors earn a nice return, without too much risk.

这两者的组合--比例通常是60%的股票和40%的债券--应该会帮助投资者在没有太大风险的情况下获得不错的回报。

Such a mix has been a sensible strategy for much of the past two decades.

在过去20年的大部分时间里，这样的组合一直是一种明智的策略。

Since 2000 the average correlation⁵ between American stocks and Treasuries⁶ has been staunchly negative, at -0.5.

自2000年以来，美国股票和国债之间一直是负相关，平均值为-0.5。

But the recent rout⁷ in both stock and bond prices has wrong-footed investors.

但最近股票和债券价格的暴跌让投资者措手不及。

In the first half of the year the S&P 500 shed 20.6% and an aggregate⁸ measure of the price of Treasuries lost 8.6%.

今年上半年，标准普尔500指数下跌了20.6%，衡量美国国债价格的一个综合指标下跌了8.6%。

Is this an aberration⁹ or the new normal?

这是一种反常现象还是新常态？

The answer depends on whether higher inflation is here to stay.

答案取决于较高的通胀是否会持续下去。

When economic growth drives asset prices, stocks and bonds diverge¹⁰.

当推动资产价格的是经济增长时，股票和债券就会出现分化。

When inflation drives them, stocks and bonds often move in tandem¹¹.

而当推动它们的是通胀时，股票和债券往往会同步变动。

On August 10th American inflation data showed prices did not rise in July.

8月10日，美国通胀数据显示，7月份物价并未上涨。

Stocks soared—the S&P 500 rose by 2.1%—and short-term Treasury¹² prices climbed, too.

股市暴涨了--标准普尔500指数上涨了2.1%--短期国债价格也有所攀升。

For as long as central bankers kept a lid on inflation, investors were protected.

只要央行官员控制住了通胀，投资者就能受到保护。

Yet look back before 2000, to a period when inflation was more common, and you see that stocks and bonds frequently moved in the same direction.

然而，回顾2000年前通胀发生频率更高的时期，你会发现股票和债券的走势经常是一致的。

AQR Capital Management, an investment firm, notes that in the 20th century the correlation between stocks and bonds was more often positive than negative.

投资公司AQR资本管理公司指出，在20世纪，股票和债券之间往往为正相关。

Lots of hedge-fund types, pension-fund managers and private-equity barons¹³ are therefore worrying about the potential for repeat inflation shocks.

因此，许多对冲基金公司、养老基金经理和私募股权大亨都在担心可能会反复发生通胀冲击。

Last year the debate in the halls of finance was about whether inflation would be “transitory” or “persistent”; this year it is about whether it is “cyclical” or “structural”.

去年，金融大厅里的人都在辩论通胀是“暂时性的”还是“持续性的”；今年则在辩论它是“周期性的”还是“结构性的”。

At the heart of this is not whether central bankers can bring down prices, but whether the underlying¹⁴ inflation dynamic has changed.

问题的核心不是央行官员能否压低价格，而是潜在的通胀动态是否发生了变化。

Those in the “structural” camp argue that the recent period of low inflation was an accident of history—helped by relatively¹⁵ calm energy markets, globalisation and Chinese demographics, which pushed down goods prices by lowering the cost of labour.

“结构性”阵营的人辩称，近期的低通胀是历史的意外--这得益于较为平静的能源市场、全球化和中国的人口结构，后者通过降低劳动力成本压低了商品价格。

1 recurring   

adj.往复的，再次发生的

参考例句：

• This kind of problem is recurring often. 这类问题经常发生。
• For our own country, it has been a time for recurring trial. 就我们国家而言，它经过了一个反复考验的时期。

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

5 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

6 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

7 rout   

n.溃退，溃败；v.击溃，打垮

参考例句：

• The enemy was put to rout all along the line.敌人已全线崩溃。
• The people's army put all to rout wherever they went.人民军队所向披靡。

8 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

9 aberration   

n.离开正路，脱离常规，色差

参考例句：

• The removal of the chromatic aberration is then of primary importance.这时消除色差具有头等重要性。
• Owing to a strange mental aberration he forgot his own name.由于一种莫名的精神错乱，他把自己的名字忘了。

10 diverge   

v.分叉，分歧，离题，使...岔开，使转向

参考例句：

• This is where our opinions diverge from each other.这就是我们意见产生分歧之处。
• Don't diverge in your speech.发言不要离题。

11 tandem   

n.同时发生；配合；adv.一个跟着一个地；纵排地；adj.（两匹马）前后纵列的

参考例句：

• Malcolm's contract will run in tandem with his existing one.马尔科姆的合同将与他手头的合同同时生效。
• He is working in tandem with officials of the Serious Fraud Office.他正配合欺诈重案办公室的官员工作。

12 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

13 barons   

男爵( baron的名词复数 )； 巨头； 大王； 大亨

参考例句：

• The barons of Normandy had refused to countenance the enterprise officially. 诺曼底的贵族们拒绝正式赞助这桩买卖。
• The barons took the oath which Stephen Langton prescribed. 男爵们照斯蒂芬？兰顿的指导宣了誓。

14 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

15 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。