2022年经济学人 通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长(2)

The second dimension is also becoming clearer.

第二个维度也愈发清晰。

In September the median expectation of Fed officials was that rates would peak at 4.6% next year.

9月份，美联储官员的预期中值是利率将在明年达到4.6%的峰值。

Bond pricing now has the peak pegged¹ at 5%, reflecting the fact that a variety of inflation indicators² have stayed stubbornly high.

债券定价现在将峰值固定在5%，反映出各种通胀指标一直居高不下。

Mr Powell suggested that the Fed’s thinking is in line with the bond market.

鲍威尔暗示，美联储的想法与债券市场一致。

Even so, there is a logic³ for slightly smaller increases from here on.

即便如此，从现在开始小幅加息也是有道理的。

Just as an aeroplane slows before landing, so, ideally, does a central bank before settling on its peak rate.

就像飞机在着陆前减速一样，理想情况下，央行在确定最高利率之前也会放缓加息。

The biggest uncertainty⁴ surrounds the final dimension.

最大的不确定性在于最后一个维度。

How long will the Fed need to keep rates at a restrictive level?

美联储需要将利率维持在限制性水平多长时间？

It estimates that the long-term neutral level—that which is neither inflationary nor stimulative—is about 2.5%.

据美联储估计，既不会导致通胀，也不会刺激经济的长期中性利率水平，约为2.5%。

By this yardstick⁵, nominal⁶ rates are already in restrictive territory.

按照这个标准，名义利率已经处于限制范围内。

But in real terms, with inflation still running at more than 8% annually⁷, policy remains⁸ loose.

但实际上，在年通胀率仍在8%以上的情况下，政策还是有些宽松。

So the question is when the economy will react to them.

所以问题在于经济何时会对它们做出反应。

Some developments have been predictable.

有些发展是可以预见的。

Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year, exceeding 7%.

抵押贷款利率在过去一年上涨了一倍多，涨至7%以上。

That has led to a sharp fall in house purchases.

这导致房屋购买量骤降。

But the resilience of the labour market has been harder to predict.

但劳动力市场的韧性更难预测。

There are still nearly twice as many job openings as there are unemployed⁹ people, placing upward pressure on wages and, in turn, inflation.

职位空缺数量仍然是失业人数的近两倍，这给工资带来了上行压力，进而也带来了通胀。

At several points during the conference, Mr Powell emphasised that the Fed would keep rates high for as long as is required.

在发布会期间，鲍威尔曾多次强调，只要有必要，美联储将一直维持高利率。

Markets have priced in a pivot¹⁰ before the end of 2023.

市场已经消化了在2023年底前转向的预期。

The view is the Fed will trim rates in the second half of the year.

有人认为，美联储将在今年下半年降息。

But it has raised them faster and higher than investors¹¹ had expected.

但美联储提高利率的速度和幅度都超出了投资者的预期。

There is a good chance it will also keep them high for longer than investors currently expect.

同样，美联储维持高利率的时间也很有可能超出投资者目前的预期。

1 pegged   

v.用夹子或钉子固定( peg的过去式和过去分词 )；使固定在某水平

参考例句：

• They pegged their tent down. 他们钉好了账篷。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She pegged down the stairs. 她急忙下楼。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

2 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

3 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 yardstick   

n.计算标准，尺度；评价标准

参考例句：

• This is a yardstick for measuring whether a person is really progressive.这是衡量一个人是否真正进步的标准。
• She was a yardstick against which I could measure my achievements.她是一个我可以用来衡量我的成就的准绳。

6 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

7 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

8 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

9 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

10 pivot   

v.在枢轴上转动；装枢轴，枢轴；adj.枢轴的

参考例句：

• She is the central pivot of creation and represents the feminine aspect in all things.她是创造的中心枢轴，表现出万物的女性面貌。
• If a spring is present,the hand wheel will pivot on the spring.如果有弹簧，手轮的枢轴会装在弹簧上。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会