美国国家公共电台 NPR Statisticians' Call To Arms: Reject Significance And Embrace Uncertainty!

 

LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, HOST:

Eggs are bad for you, according to a study out earlier this month. But wait. Before that, eggs were good for you. And before that, they were bad. This is not because the truth is changing all the time. One key reason - scientists have a hard time coping with uncertainty¹. Don't we all? NPR's Richard Harris reports on a new effort to break science out of that confusing rut.

RICHARD HARRIS, BYLINE²: One of the people who's asking scientists to reconsider how they treat uncertainty is Nicole Lazar, a professor of statistics at the University of Georgia. How does she react to the latest study of alcohol, coffee, eggs or whatever?

NICOLE LAZAR: Whenever I see anything in the paper or my husband tells me something about, oh, a new study shows - I'm just like, whatever. You know, I don't even pay attention to it anymore.

HARRIS: That's not because she's fatalistic. It's because science - the way it's practiced today - actually encourages scientists to boil everything down to a true/false question.

LAZAR: The real world is much more uncertain than that.

HARRIS: Of course, scientists are drawn³ toward specialized⁴ language. So you hear their rendition of true all the time on NPR and elsewhere.

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UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: And that difference was statistically⁶ significant.

MICHAEL POLLAN: And they found that 80 percent of the people in the trial had statistically significant reductions.

RACHEL HINNENKAMP: That's a statistically significant increase.

HARRIS: Statistically significant is equated⁷ with true or real. Though, that's really not the case. Lazar says it's certainly convenient to have an easy shortcut⁸ that, seemingly, helps distinguish strong results from forgettable ones.

LAZAR: Having that bright-line cutoff makes everything seem much more certain than it really is.

HARRIS: It actually distorts the truth. Sometimes, scientists actually play games with this bright-line, massaging⁹ their data to make sure it lands just barely on the desirable side. Other times, people ignore findings that actually might deserve a second look. So Lazar is among a group of more than 800 scientists who are saying it's time to abolish the badly abused concept of statistical⁵ significance.

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RON WASSERSTEIN: It's time to stop using that phrase. It's really gotten stretched all out of proportion.

HARRIS: Ron Wasserstein is executive director of the American Statistical Association, and he's been arguing this for years. But it's deeply embedded¹⁰ in the world of science. Journals demands statistical significance. College deans count on it, so do grant reviewers. But there are dangers of continuing to use this intellectual shortcut.

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WASSERSTEIN: Failure to make these changes are now really starting to have a sustained negative impact on the way science is conducted. And it's time to make the changes. It's time to move on.

HARRIS: Scientists bury perfectly¹¹ good data because they aren't statistically significant, he says. And studies can easily end up with the wrong conclusions after being forced through this abused test. His association's journal, American Statistician, has just published 43 papers decrying¹² the practice and discussing alternatives. Wasserstein says one thing scientists should do is embrace uncertainty rather than using statistics to sweep it under the rug.

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WASSERSTEIN: Uncertainty is present - always. That's part of science. So rather than try to dance around that, we accept it.

HARRIS: Measure it and make better use of it. Wasserstein says this goes against human nature because we want answers not perpetual questions. And some statistics experts say we shouldn't ditch this flawed system until we know what replaces it will actually be an improvement. But Wasserstein says dropping the concept of statistical significance gives you a more honest way of looking at research, like the egg study, which is surely not the last word on a messy question about nutrition.

Richard Harris, NPR News.

 

(SOUNDBITE OF EL TEN ELEVEN'S "TRIANGLE FACE")

1 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

4 specialized   

adj.专门的，专业化的

参考例句：

• There are many specialized agencies in the United Nations.联合国有许多专门机构。
• These tools are very specialized.这些是专用工具。

5 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

6 statistically   

ad.根据统计数据来看，从统计学的观点来看

参考例句：

• The sample of building permits is larger and therefore, statistically satisfying. 建筑许可数的样本比较大，所以统计数据更令人满意。
• The results of each test would have to be statistically independent. 每次试验的结果在统计上必须是独立的。

7 equated   

adj.换算的v.认为某事物（与另一事物）相等或相仿( equate的过去式和过去分词 )；相当于；等于；把（一事物） 和（另一事物）等同看待

参考例句：

• Production costs for the movie equated to around 30% of income. 这部电影的制作成本相当于收益的30%。
• Politics cannot be equated with art. 政治不能同艺术等同起来。

8 shortcut   

n.近路，捷径

参考例句：

• He was always looking for a shortcut to fame and fortune.他总是在找成名发财的捷径。
• If you take the shortcut,it will be two li closer.走抄道去要近2里路。

9 massaging   

按摩，推拿( massage的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He watched the prisoner massaging his freed wrists. 他看着那个犯人不断揉搓着刚松开的两只手腕。
• Massaging your leg will ease the cramp. 推拿大腿可解除抽筋。

10 embedded   

a.扎牢的

参考例句：

• an operation to remove glass that was embedded in his leg 取出扎入他腿部玻璃的手术
• He has embedded his name in the minds of millions of people. 他的名字铭刻在数百万人民心中。

11 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。

12 decrying   

v.公开反对，谴责( decry的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Soon Chinese Internet users, including government agencies, were decrying the' poisonous panda. 不久，中国网民以及政府机构纷纷谴责“影响极坏的熊猫烧香”。 来自互联网
• Democratic leaders are decrying President Bush's plan to indefinitely halt troop withdrawals from Iraq after July. 民主党领导公开谴责布什总统七月后无限停止从伊拉克撤兵的举动。 来自互联网