纽约时报 新冠疫情威胁全球贸易(4)

“If you run out of widgets that are essential to production processes and all those widgets come from China,

“如果于你的生产不可或缺的部件已经快要耗尽，而那些部件又来自中国的话，

then it may well be that your production lines go to a halt,”

那你的生产线很可能要面临中断了，”

said Ben May, global economist¹ at Oxford² Economics in London.

伦敦牛津经济研究院全球经济学家本·梅说道。

“These problems are likely to be popping up all over the world.”

“世界各国都会陆续出现这一问题。”

This became a problem in the aftermath of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami³ in Japan, which devastated⁴ manufacturers.

2011年日本发生地震和海啸时便已出现过这一问题，最终对制造商予以了重创。

Many companies assumed they were buying parts from a diverse range of suppliers, protecting them from shortages,

当时，许多企业都以为，他们所用的零部件购自多家供应商，不存在供应短缺的问题，

only to realize that critical components⁵ were produced by single plants.

最终却发现，他们的核心零部件全都来自同一工厂。

If that plays out in China, the consequences are likely to be great.

如若这一情形在中国身上重演，结局恐十分严重。

“We’re talking about a potentially vast swath of a country that the whole world depends on as a manufacturing workshop,”

“此次讨论的对象是扮演着整个全球市场的加工工厂的这么一个国家的一大片地区，”

said Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University and the former chief economist at the Commerce Department.

凯斯西储大学经济学家、前美国商务部首席经济学家苏珊·赫尔珀说道。

“The effects will be unexpected.”

“其影响势必超乎我们的预料。”

Apple assembles most of its products in China.

苹果公司有大部分产品都在中国组装。

The company has severely⁶ restricted travel in China for its employees,

该公司首席执行官蒂莫西·D.库克在周二的财报电话会议上指示，

its chief executive officer, Timothy D. Cook, said on an earnings⁷ call on Tuesday.

公司已经严格限制员工在中国的差旅。

Apple disclosed much wider volatility⁸ in its potential revenues for the current quarter

苹果还披露，鉴于工厂生产及产品销量的不确定性，

in the face of uncertainties⁹ around factory production and sales of its products.

本季度的可能收入或将面临更大幅度的波动。

Those uncertainties deepened on Saturday.

周六(2月1日)，上述不确定性进一步加剧。

Apple, which derives¹⁰ about one-sixth of its sales from China, announced that it would close its 42 stores in the country.

因苹果——约有1/6的销售额来自中国——于当天宣布，暂时关闭中国的42家门店。

Walmart buys vast volumes of its products from Chinese factories

沃尔玛从中国工厂购入了大量产品，

while operating 430 stores in the country, including in areas shut down by quarantine.

同时在中国，包括因疫情歇业的地区经营着430家门店。

The company has reduced hours at some stores, a Walmart spokeswoman said.

据沃尔玛的一位发言人透露，公司已经缩短了部分门店的营业时间。

“We may still be in the early stages,” of the coronavirus crisis,

“或许我们仍处于新型冠状病毒疫情的早期阶段。”

Judith McKenna, who runs Walmart’s International business, wrote in an internal memo¹¹ on Friday.

负责沃尔玛国际业务的朱迪斯·麦肯纳在周五的一份内部备忘录中写道。

China is the world’s largest manufacturer of toys.

此外，中国还是世界最大的玩具生产国。

At the International Toy Fair in Nuremberg, Germany,

在德国纽伦堡的国际玩具博览会上，

many Chinese suppliers expressed confidence that their factories would soon reopen,

不少中国供应商都表示，他们对工厂近期复工有信心，

said Rick Woldenberg, chief executive of Learning Resources,

伊利诺伊州教育产品和玩具制造商，

a family-owned manufacturer of educational products and toys in Illinois.

家族企业“学源”的首席执行官瑞克·沃尔登伯格说道。

“But no one’s quite sure how much of this information can be relied upon,” Mr. Woldenberg said.

沃尔登伯格接着说道，“但没人确切知道这一信息可信度有多大”。

Because of the trade war, the toy industry was effectively prepared for a moment

沃尔登伯格称，受贸易战的影响，玩具业原本就已开始未雨绸缪，

in which its access to Chinese suppliers was imperiled, Mr. Woldenberg said.

为他们来自中国的货源供应不济的那一天做准备。

In December, when the Trump¹² administration was threatening to impose an additional 15 percent tariff¹³ on Chinese imports,

去年12月，特朗普政府威胁要对中国出口美国的玩具加征15%的关税时，

many toy companies sped up their orders to beat the deadline.

许多玩具公司就已开始加快订单生产速度，试图赶在关税生效之前完成订单。

Some shifted production to Thailand and Vietnam to avoid the tariffs¹⁴ altogether.

有些公司甚至将生产转移到了泰国和越南，意图彻底避开关税。

Toymakers will soon need to rebuild inventory¹⁵.

尽管如此，玩具制造需要补充库存的日子已经不远。

“If this goes on for four more months, we are talking about a big problem,”

“如果当前的形势再持续四个月，我们就会面临大问题，”

said Jim Silver, chief executive of TTPM.com, a consumer research site.

消费者研究网站TTPM.com首席执行官吉姆·西尔弗说道。

After SARS, China suffered several months of economic contraction¹⁶ and then rebounded¹⁷ dramatically.

非典过后，中国经济历经了几个月的收缩才开始出现大幅增长。

That might happen this time, too.

这一次，历史或将重演。

The only certainty is this: Whatever happens in China will be felt widely.

而唯一可以肯定的是：不管中国发生什么，受影响的将远不止中国自己。

“Clearly China has become a much more dominant¹⁸ player in the world economy,” said Mr. May of Oxford Economics.

“很明显，中国在世界经济舞台上的地位早已今非昔比，”牛津经济研究院的梅评论道。

“It’s just so much more involved in the global supply chain.

“中国在全球供应链中的参与度也已经有了极大提升。

Over the last decade, it has been the spender of last resort for the global economy.”

过去10年里，中国一直是全球经济万不得已时的消费保障。”

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

3 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

4 devastated   

v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的

参考例句：

• The bomb devastated much of the old part of the city. 这颗炸弹炸毁了旧城的一大片地方。
• His family is absolutely devastated. 他的一家感到极为震惊。

5 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

6 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

7 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

8 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

9 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

10 derives   

v.得到( derive的第三人称单数 )；（从…中）得到获得；源于；（从…中）提取

参考例句：

• English derives in the main from the common Germanic stock. 英语主要源于日耳曼语系。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He derives his income from freelance work. 他以自由职业获取收入。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 memo   

n.照会，备忘录；便笺；通知书；规章

参考例句：

• Do you want me to send the memo out?您要我把这份备忘录分发出去吗？
• Can you type a memo for me?您能帮我打一份备忘录吗？

12 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

13 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

14 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

15 inventory   

n.详细目录，存货清单

参考例句：

• Some stores inventory their stock once a week.有些商店每周清点存货一次。
• We will need to call on our supplier to get more inventory.我们必须请供应商送来更多存货。

16 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

17 rebounded   

弹回( rebound的过去式和过去分词 )； 反弹； 产生反作用； 未能奏效

参考例句：

• The ball rebounded from the goalpost and Owen headed it in. 球从门柱弹回，欧文头球将球攻进。
• The ball rebounded from his racket into the net. 球从他的球拍上弹回网中。

18 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。