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时代周刊:威慑之争(1)

时间:2020-11-16 03:22来源:互联网 提供网友:nan   字体: [ ]
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THE DETERRENCE1 DEBATE

威慑之争

By James Stavridis

文/詹姆斯·斯塔夫里蒂斯

President Trump2 and Kim Jong Un’s courtship has been nothing if not fickle4.

特朗普总统和金正恩的关系一直反复无常。

And so as the summit over North Korea’s nuclear weapons veers5 from on-again to off-again,

因此,既然有关朝鲜核武器的峰会时断时续,

the world should consider the thinking of three distinguished6 U.S. military officers—

国际社会就应该分析分析美国三大军官的思维方式——

two of whom just took pivotal posts in these turbulent times.

其中两人都是刚刚在整个风云变幻的时代接任了关键职位。

I know each of them very well from our decades of service and my time in the Pacific Fleet and as NATO Supreme7 Commander:

因为我们四人都服役了数十年,加上我还在太平洋舰队服役过,还担任过北约最高指挥官,我对他们三人都有颇深的了解:

General James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense8;

国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯将军;

Admiral Harry9 Harris, who was officially nominated for U.S. ambassador to South Korea the day before Trump withdrew from the summit with Kim;

川普退出与金正恩的峰会前一天正式提名的美国驻韩大使,海军上将哈里·哈里斯;

and Admiral Phil Davidson, Harris’ new successor as commander of the vast U.S. Pacific Command.

以及接任哈里斯美国太平洋司令部司令的海军上将菲尔·戴维森。

Together, they own the problem of determining how to return the U.S. to full-bore deterrence—

他们三人共同承担着决定如何让美国恢复全方位威慑力的责任——

and giving the President new options for military strikes if the negotiations10 fail.

还有谈判失败后为总统提供军事打击新选项的责任。

What will their counsel be to the mercurial11 President?

他们会对特朗普这位善变的总统做出怎样的建议呢?

Let’s start with Mattis.

我们先来分析马蒂斯会给出怎样的建议。

The decision about what actions the U.S. should take will likely play out in a three-way conversation among him, National Security Adviser12 John Bolton and the President.

美国应该采取何种行动的决策可能要经由马蒂斯,国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿和总统的三方会谈诞生。

Mattis is a thoughtful strategist with a deep sense of history—essentially the opposite of Trump.

马蒂斯是一位深思熟虑的战略家,对历史有着很深的了解——基本和特朗普是完全不同的两个人。

The President will continue to largely shoot from the hip3:

总统很大程度上可能都会选择继续不假思索鲁莽行事:

he’ll ignore both the briefings and intelligence presented to him, and will remain inclined to swing for the fences,

无论是递交给他的简报还是情报他都将选择视而不见,并一如既往地倾向于孤注一掷,

if not in a summit, then in some kind of preemptive strike.

届时如果不是在峰会上,那就是某个先发制人的场合。

Mattis will face the challenge of counseling patience, while offering options for sanctions (again);

马蒂斯将面临一边耐心提供咨询,一边提供制裁(再次);

cyber, intelligence and missile defense; perhaps a naval13 blockade; and even both limited and massive strikes.

网络防御、情报防御和导弹防御;或许还有海上封锁;甚至是有限打击和大规模打击等选项的挑战。

Harris, a Japanese American, will be parachuting into high drama.

哈里斯,日裔美国人,则会空投充满戏剧性的建议。

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who had invested excessively in relationship-building with Kim,

为与金正恩修好不计代价的韩国总统文在寅

will be anxious to heal the wounds inflicted14 by Trump’s calling off the talks.

则会迫不及待地想愈合特朗普叫停会谈造成的创伤。

Harris understands why.

对此,哈里斯堪称是心如明镜。

He knows the Korean War plans better than anyone and grasps exactly how devastating15 a war on the Korean Peninsula would be.

他比任何人都更了解朝鲜战争的计划,也更清楚朝鲜半岛的战争会造成怎样的灾难。

He and his wife Bruni will also be located at ground zero.

届时,他和妻子布鲁尼都将成为直接的攻击目标。


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 deterrence d230b01f8463627e6282c5e0e4f1c166     
威慑,制止; 制止物,制止因素; 挽留的事物; 核威慑
参考例句:
  • An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称,稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
  • Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。
2 trump LU1zK     
n.王牌,法宝;v.打出王牌,吹喇叭
参考例句:
  • He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
  • The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手,作为他的王牌。
3 hip 1dOxX     
n.臀部,髋;屋脊
参考例句:
  • The thigh bone is connected to the hip bone.股骨连着髋骨。
  • The new coats blouse gracefully above the hip line.新外套在臀围线上优美地打着褶皱。
4 fickle Lg9zn     
adj.(爱情或友谊上)易变的,不坚定的
参考例句:
  • Fluctuating prices usually base on a fickle public's demand.物价的波动往往是由于群众需求的不稳定而引起的。
  • The weather is so fickle in summer.夏日的天气如此多变。
5 veers ed7b7db2261306e4d9d609f20d475bbc     
v.(尤指交通工具)改变方向或路线( veer的第三人称单数 );(指谈话内容、人的行为或观点)突然改变;(指风) (在北半球按顺时针方向、在南半球按逆时针方向)逐渐转向;风向顺时针转
参考例句:
  • The car veers out of control. 这辆车失去了控制。 来自辞典例句
  • His fondness for his characters sometimes veers towards the sentimental. 他对那位主人公的偏爱有时也稍显矫情。 来自互联网
6 distinguished wu9z3v     
adj.卓越的,杰出的,著名的
参考例句:
  • Elephants are distinguished from other animals by their long noses.大象以其长长的鼻子显示出与其他动物的不同。
  • A banquet was given in honor of the distinguished guests.宴会是为了向贵宾们致敬而举行的。
7 supreme PHqzc     
adj.极度的,最重要的;至高的,最高的
参考例句:
  • It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
  • He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。
8 defense AxbxB     
n.防御,保卫;[pl.]防务工事;辩护,答辩
参考例句:
  • The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
  • The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。
9 harry heBxS     
vt.掠夺,蹂躏,使苦恼
参考例句:
  • Today,people feel more hurried and harried.今天,人们感到更加忙碌和苦恼。
  • Obama harried business by Healthcare Reform plan.奥巴马用医改掠夺了商界。
10 negotiations af4b5f3e98e178dd3c4bac64b625ecd0     
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过
参考例句:
  • negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
  • Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。
11 mercurial yCnxD     
adj.善变的,活泼的
参考例句:
  • He was of a mercurial temperament and therefore unpredictable.他是个反复无常的人,因此对他的行为无法预言。
  • Our desires and aversions are mercurial rulers.我们的欲望与嫌恶是变化无常的统治者。
12 adviser HznziU     
n.劝告者,顾问
参考例句:
  • They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
  • Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。
13 naval h1lyU     
adj.海军的,军舰的,船的
参考例句:
  • He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
  • The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。
14 inflicted cd6137b3bb7ad543500a72a112c6680f     
把…强加给,使承受,遭受( inflict的过去式和过去分词 )
参考例句:
  • They inflicted a humiliating defeat on the home team. 他们使主队吃了一场很没面子的败仗。
  • Zoya heroically bore the torture that the Fascists inflicted upon her. 卓娅英勇地承受法西斯匪徒加在她身上的酷刑。
15 devastating muOzlG     
adj.毁灭性的,令人震惊的,强有力的
参考例句:
  • It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
  • Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。
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