时代周刊:揭秘拯救2020年大选的"影子运动秘史"()

The endless chatter¹ in Washington about "political strategy," Podhorzer believes, has little to do with how change really gets made.

波德霍泽认为，华盛顿关于“政治战略”的无休止的讨论，与如何真正实现变革没有多大关系。

"My basic take on politics is that it's all pretty obvious if you don't overthink it or swallow the prevailing² frameworks whole," he once wrote.

他曾经写道：“我对政治的基本看法是，如果你不过度思考，或者不全盘接受流行的框架，一切都是显而易见的。”

"After that, just relentlessly³ identify your assumptions and challenge them."

“然后，你要毫不留情地找出你的假设并挑战它们。”

Podhorzer applies that approach to everything: when he coached his now adult son's Little League team in the D.C. suburbs,

波德霍泽把这种方法应用到所有的事情上：当他在华盛顿郊区指导他现在已经成年的儿子的少年棒球联盟球队时，

he trained the boys not to swing at most pitches—a tactic⁴ that infuriated both their and their opponents' parents, but won the team a series of championships.

他训练孩子们在大多数投球时不要挥棒——这一策略激怒了他们和对手的父母，但却为球队赢得了一次又一次的冠军。

Trump⁵'s election in 2016—credited in part to his unusual strength among the sort of blue collar white voters who once dominated the AFL-CIO—prompted Podhorzer to question his assumptions about voter behavior.

特朗普在2016年的当选——部分归功于他在曾经主宰美国劳工联合会的蓝领白人选民中有着异乎寻常的力量——促使波德霍泽质疑他对选民行为的假设。

He began circulating weekly number-crunching memos⁶ to a small circle of allies and hosting strategy sessions in D.C.

他开始每周向一小群盟友分发数据分析备忘录，并在华盛顿召开战略会议。

But when he began to worry about the election itself, he didn't want to seem paranoid.

但当他开始担心选举本身时，他不想显得偏执。

It was only after months of research that he introduced his concerns in his newsletter in October 2019.

直到几个月的研究后，他才在2019年10月的通讯中提出了自己的担忧。

The usual tools of data, analytics and polling would not be sufficient in a situation where the President himself was trying to disrupt the election, he wrote.

他写道，在总统自己试图扰乱选举的情况下，通常的数据、分析和民调工具是不够的。

"Most of our planning takes us through Election Day," he noted⁷.

他说：“我们的大部分计划要持续到大选日。

"But, we are not prepared for the two most likely outcomes"—Trump losing and refusing to concede,

但是，我们还没有为两种最可能的结果做好准备”——特朗普输掉并拒绝认输，

and Trump winning the Electoral College (despite losing the popular vote) by corrupting⁸ the voting process in key states.

以及特朗普通过在关键州破坏投票过程而赢得选举人团(尽管输掉了普选)。

"We desperately⁹ need to systematically¹⁰ 'red-team' this election so that we can anticipate and plan for the worst we know will be coming our way."

“我们迫切需要有系统地‘红队’这次选举，这样我们就可以预测和计划我们知道将会出现的最坏情况。”

It turned out Podhorzer wasn't the only one thinking in these terms. He began to hear from others eager to join forces.

事实证明，波德霍泽并不是唯一一个这样想的人。他开始听到其他人渴望联合起来。

The Fight Back Table, a coalition¹¹ of "resistance" organizations, had begun scenario-planning around the potential for a contested election,

一个由“抵抗”组织组成的联盟“反击台”已经开始围绕有争议的选举进行前景计划，

gathering¹² liberal activists¹³ at the local and national level into what they called the Democracy Defense¹⁴ Coalition.

将地方和国家层面的自由活动人士聚集到他们所谓的“民主防卫联盟”中。

Voting-rights and civilrights organizations were raising alarms. A group of former elected officials was researching emergency powers they feared Trump might exploit.

投票权和民权组织敲响了警钟。一群前当选官员正在研究他们担心特朗普可能会利用的紧急权力。

Protect Democracy was assembling a bipartisan election-crisis task force.

保护民主正在组建一个两党选举危机特别工作组。

"It turned out that once you said it out loud, people agreed," Podhorzer says, "and it started building momentum¹⁵."

“事实证明，一旦你大声说出自己的想法，人们就会同意，”波德霍泽说，“并且开始形成势头。”

1 chatter   

vi.／n.喋喋不休；短促尖叫；(牙齿)打战

参考例句：

• Her continuous chatter vexes me.她的喋喋不休使我烦透了。
• I've had enough of their continual chatter.我已厌烦了他们喋喋不休的闲谈。

2 prevailing   

adj.盛行的；占优势的；主要的

参考例句：

• She wears a fashionable hair style prevailing in the city.她的发型是这个城市流行的款式。
• This reflects attitudes and values prevailing in society.这反映了社会上盛行的态度和价值观。

3 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。

4 tactic   

n.战略，策略；adj.战术的，有策略的

参考例句：

• Reducing prices is a common sales tactic.降价是常用的销售策略。
• She had often used the tactic of threatening to resign.她惯用以辞职相威胁的手法。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 memos   

n.备忘录( memo的名词复数 )；（美）内部通知

参考例句：

• Big shots get their dander up and memos start flying. 大人物们怒火中烧，备忘录四下乱飞。 来自辞典例句
• There was a pile of mail, memos and telephone messages on his desk. 他的办公桌上堆满着信件、备忘录和电话通知。 来自辞典例句

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 corrupting   

（使）败坏( corrupt的现在分词 )； （使）腐化； 引起（计算机文件等的）错误； 破坏

参考例句：

• It would be corrupting discipline to leave him unpunished. 不惩治他会败坏风纪。
• It would be corrupting military discipline to leave him unpunished. 不惩治他会败坏军纪。

9 desperately   

adv.极度渴望地，绝望地，孤注一掷地

参考例句：

• He was desperately seeking a way to see her again.他正拼命想办法再见她一面。
• He longed desperately to be back at home.他非常渴望回家。

10 systematically   

adv.有系统地

参考例句：

• This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。
• The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

11 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

12 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

13 activists   

n.（政治活动的）积极分子，活动家( activist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His research work was attacked by animal rights activists . 他的研究受到了动物权益维护者的抨击。
• Party activists with lower middle class pedigrees are numerous. 党的激进分子中有很多出身于中产阶级下层。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

15 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。