Business Channel 2007-10-07&10-09, 可能的投资风暴顾忌

Scripts:

I think that you've had really two events over the last couple of months. You had one, a liquidity¹ event in August that the Fed monetized a few weeks ago by lowering rates 50 basis points more than those expected. And then you've had credit worries. But in the liquidity problems you have some shares just beat down so hard that you had them, you had a lot of people come into the market with a lot of li(quidity), a lot of extra capital around that push shares up to an all time high. Yesterday and you have some people as you have, coming on more board, bearish² trend and the economy has still lots of potential to roll over probably of taking some money off the table at this point.

So essentially³ you think this is a relatively⁴ short term move. That there is some uncertainty⁵ there , there is a lot of worry, a lot of people just kinda in and then quickly back out again having made a profit. And it's rather hard therefore presumably to discern the future direction of the Dow.

Charles that's absolutely correct. And I would say that there is a ton of uncertainty right now. I think that some financial shares and some of the companies that are tied to the mortgage market do present compelling valuations right now for the truly long term investor⁶, think 3 to 5 years. But in the near term you've got a lot of credit term while that the Fed has effectively delayed maybe or trying to make a softer landing by lowering rates. But that remains⁷ to be seen. I think you've seen the housing data coming out, and we're coming to a holiday season, Retail⁸ Wise that could be quite weak because of that. So it's a really kind of a wait-and-see approach with the market right now whether that there are pockets of attractive valuations.

What was striking on Monday was that we had two big banks, City Group in the United States, UBS in Switzerland coming out and effectively cleaning up their balance sheets, taking big hits which was ugly and painful. But essentially moving forward with a lot of the bad news certainly already out there. Their stocks went up quite sharply. Do you think that it will be that easy for some of the other banks to cast off some of these sub-prime worries.

Well, with City and UBS, they are such huge large global money banks that by writing down at those loans they can basically move forward and reallocate capital into more high return businesses right now. Some of the smaller players are gonna who are more tied to the mortgage market, it's gonna take a little bit longer for them to play out and they are gonna have potentially some more restructure and some more pain/ to go through on their balance sheets. But for the larger players I think the market was expecting even worse just because of the severe liquidity crunch⁹ in August. And seeing at least some clarity along those lines, you know, was a relief to some investors¹⁰.

Let's look at the broader world scene because we are seeing a great deal of strength clearly in Asia. Do you suspect that Asia rather than Europe and certainly rather than the United States is gonna be where the excitement will be, if you like for equity¹¹ investors in next few months possibly years?

Well, Charles, I will tell you this. The highest growth areas in the world right now are in Asia. Really you look at all the Asian countries you know clearly led by China which seems to be on everybody's tongue these days. But that's where the highest growth is. That's where so many of the manufacture and production, jobs have moved. And in Asia it's basically reengineering I mean you can also think about Japan 20 or 30 years ago when they were going through their growth period. I mean so many countries in Asia right now are in that type of growth phase where just the average consumers are gonna be buying washing machines, driers, refrigerators, cars. And there are gonna be a huge amount of growth and expenditure¹² by them as they become more of developed countries more than the 3rd world countries.

Notes:

Liquidity: Available cash or the capacity to obtain it on demand.

Citigroup: International financial conglomerate¹³ with operations in consumer, corporate¹⁴, and investment banking¹⁵ and insurance.

1 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

2 bearish   

adj.(行情)看跌的，卖空的

参考例句：

• It is foolish not to invest in stocks,so I will show her how to be bearish without them too,if she chooses.不投资股票是愚蠢的，因此如果她选择股票，我会向她展示怎样在没有长期潜力的情况下进行卖空。
• I think a bearish market must be a good time for bargain-hunters to invest.我觉得熊市对于想买低的人可是个投资的大好机会。

3 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

4 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

7 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

8 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

9 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

12 expenditure   

n.(时间、劳力、金钱等)支出；使用，消耗

参考例句：

• The entry of all expenditure is necessary.有必要把一切开支入账。
• The monthly expenditure of our family is four hundred dollars altogether.我们一家的开销每月共计四百元。

13 conglomerate   

n.综合商社，多元化集团公司

参考例句：

• The firm has been taken over by an American conglomerate.该公司已被美国一企业集团接管。
• An American conglomerate holds a major share in the company.一家美国的大联合企业持有该公司的大部分股份。

14 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。