Business Channel 2007-10-31&11-02, 油价醒觉

I think that's an inevitable¹ process which is going to continue so long as the Asian economies in particular continue to grow up rapidly. The biggest marginal contributer to rise in oil demand, that of course in the past 5 years has been China. I think if memory shows me correctly it counted for about a quater of the increase in , in world oil demand of the last 5 years. So consequently there is going to be increasing pressure on oil demand for some years to come. And it's ... I guess the case we're gonna have to live with is a fairly tight-jaw market which suggests that we'd probably got to have to live with oil prices at far higher levels than that we become used to over the past decade.

As far as your projections² of the world economy are concerned then are you looking at 90, 100, 110 dollar a barrel?

Well I suspect that we could well hit 100 dollars per barrel over the courses of the next few months. I'm not entirely³ convinced that's necessarily a consequence of the strength of the world economy howerer. And you got to look at surplus out of the equation too, and OPEC has been very successful over the course of the past 12 months in curbing⁴ oil supply . and of course this tightness of the market coupled with, quite lot of speculative⁵ positioning on the part of investors⁶ has helped to drive prices up to you know 90 plus dollars a barrel.My guess is that a fundamentally justified⁷ price will simmer in the range 60 to 70 but I don't think we are gonna see that for some time to come.

OK, well we could have interesting discussions on the supply side, but let's move, look at the price and its consequences for the world economy...

Notes:

Tight-jaw: scrupulous and prudential about predicting or commentary

1 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

2 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

3 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

4 curbing   

n.边石，边石的材料v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Progress has been made in curbing inflation. 在控制通货膨胀方面已取得了进展。
• A range of policies have been introduced aimed at curbing inflation. 为了抑制通货膨胀实施了一系列的政策。

5 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。