巴菲特:经济尚未恢复

Where are we right now? We're on the cusp of the second half, when we're supposed to see recovery.

Yeah, I think it's unlikely for a while. I mean I get figures on dozens of, dozens of businesses. I get them daily. I mean we own them. And we have not, there is no uptick yet. There will be. I wanna assure everybody that. This country always comes back. I mean if you go, you know, we've had the Civil War, we've got the Great Depression, we've had Pearl Harbor, we get a lot of unpleasant surprises, but we always overcome them and we will this. But we haven't yet, and it doesn't look to me like it's imminent¹. It will happen.

You know, it's rare to hear you as the Dr. Doom². I mean you know, look, the rate of jobless, job layoffs³ has slowed down. We got the report today on big ticket items. We have a second month of gains. (Yeah) We had existing home sales up for three, for a couple of months. So there are signs of growth. You are not encouraged by this.

Well, I'm encouraged by the fact that it's gonna work over time. But I'm not, but in terms of looking at all the figures that I see, whether, you know, retail⁴ sale, everything. The unemployment is gonna keep going up significantly. But we will overcome it, I don't wanna be Dr. Doom in that respect. I'm a huge bull on America, I always have been. But I also don't believe in kidding myself. So when I look at numbers of how many yards of carpet we sold yesterday, or how many items of jewelry⁵, or how many watches, or whatever it maybe. And I just was talking with the gentleman that runs this, this restaurant, you know, the same, the same situation. We have not bounced yet.

You mentioned one of the things, rate of unemployment going up. (Yeah.) There's this talk of a jobless recovery, is there such a thing?

No, eventually, but there will be, at the beginning of recovery, there will be jobless. I mean when firms tighten⁶ up, they don't start hiring a month or two months after their business turns up. They do start hiring later on. But unemployment will peak after businesses already start/ turning up somewhat. So it won't be a jobless. We'll add millions and millions of jobs in the next decade in this country. We just won't add them in the next few months.

 

我们现在身处何时？我们正处在下半年被期望看到经济复苏的转折期。

是的，但我想经济复苏暂时还未到来。我的意思是我每天会拿到许多商业数据，我是说我们所掌握的数据并没有回升的迹象。但是它将会出现，我想让每一个人确信这一点。这个国家总能从困境中走出来，我是说如果你知道我们经历了内战、大萧条、珍珠港事件等等不幸的变故，然而我们总能克服它们。这一次我们也能做到，尽管目前我们还未达到而且在我看来它不会马上到来。但是，它会出现的。

你知道，很少有你作为“毁灭博士”的消息。我的意思是，看看失业率和下岗率都已下降。我们今天得到了关于大额项目的报告，我们连续两个月做到了盈利。我们现有的国内销售额在过去两个个月上升了三个百分点。这些都是经济增长的迹象，尽管你不会因为这些而倍受鼓舞。

很好，随着时间的推移，这些都将实现这一事实让我受到了鼓舞。但是现在并非如此，不论是不是所有我所看到的数据，比如说零售额等等所有的东西。失业率仍将有较大幅度的上升，但是我们将会克服它，我不想在这个方面成为“毁灭博士”。我一直以来都是看好美国市场的一位举足轻重的乐观投资者。我也不想和自己开玩笑，所以当我了解到昨天我们卖了多少码地毯，或者是卖出多少件珠宝，又或者是多少块手表等等，我只是会继续和经营这家餐厅的绅士聊天。你知道，情况并没有改变，我们的经济还没有反弹。

你刚才提到失业率仍将上升，这正是我们讨论的失业型复苏，是有这样一种情况吗？

在最后是不会有这种情况的，但是在经济复苏的开始阶段是会出现的，出现失业。我的意思是当公司紧缩的时候，他们在业务开始好转后的一两个月是不会开始雇佣新员工的。失业率将在业务开始好转后的某个点达到峰值，之后就将下降，所以在未来大家是不会一直失业下去的。我们将在这个国家的未来十年新增数以百万的工作岗位，我们只是不会在接下来的几个月增加工作岗位。

1 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

2 doom   

n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定

参考例句：

• The report on our economic situation is full of doom and gloom.这份关于我们经济状况的报告充满了令人绝望和沮丧的调子。
• The dictator met his doom after ten years of rule.独裁者统治了十年终于完蛋了。

3 layoffs   

临时解雇( layoff的名词复数 )； 停工，停止活动

参考例句：

• Textile companies announced 2000 fresh layoffs last week. 各纺织公司上周宣布再次裁员两千人。
• Stock prices broke when the firm suddenly announced layoffs. 当公司突然宣布裁员时，股票价格便大跌

4 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

5 jewelry   

n.（jewllery）（总称）珠宝

参考例句：

• The burglars walked off with all my jewelry.夜盗偷走了我的全部珠宝。
• Jewelry and lace are mostly feminine belongings.珠宝和花边多数是女性用品。

6 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。