英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(2)

Nowhere is this more vividly¹ manifest than with immigration. The thinktank British Future has studied how best to win arguments in favour of immigration and multiculturalism³. One of its main findings is that people often respond warmly to qualitative⁴ evidence, such as the stories of individual migrants and photographs of diverse communities. But statistics – especially regarding alleged⁵ benefits of migration² to Britain's economy – elicit⁶ quite the opposite reaction. People assume that the numbers are manipulated and dislike the elitism⁷ of resorting to quantitative⁸ evidence. Presented with official estimates of how many immigrants are in the country illegally, a common response is to scoff⁹. Far from increasing support for immigration, British Future found, pointing to its positive effect on GDP can actually make people more hostile to it. GDP itself has come to seem like a Trojan horse for an elitist liberal agenda. Sensing this, politicians have now largely abandoned discussing immigration in economic terms.

这一点在移民问题上表现得最为明显。智库“英国未来”研究了如何最好地为支持移民和多元文化主义赢得争论。它的主要发现之一是，人们通常对定性证据反应热烈，比如移民个体的故事和不同社区的照片。但统计数据——尤其是有关所谓移民给英国经济带来好处的数据——却引发了截然相反的反应。人们认为数字是被操纵的，不喜欢诉诸定量证据的精英主义。当被问及美国有多少非法移民时，一种普遍的反应是嘲笑。“英国未来”发现，指出移民对GDP的积极影响非但不会增加人们对移民的支持，反而会让人们对移民更加敌视。GDP本身似乎成了精英自由主义议程的特洛伊木马。意识到这一点，政客们现在基本上已经放弃了用经济术语来讨论移民问题。

All of this presents a serious challenge for liberal democracy. Put bluntly, the British government – its officials, experts, advisers¹⁰ and many of its politicians – does believe that immigration is on balance good for the economy. The British government did believe that Brexit was the wrong choice. The problem is that the government is now engaged in self-censorship, for fear of provoking people further.

所有这些都对自由民主提出了严峻的挑战。坦率地说，英国政府——包括政府官员、专家、顾问和许多政界人士——确实认为移民总的来说对经济有利。英国政府确实认为脱欧是一个错误的选择。问题在于，政府现在正在进行自我审查，以免进一步激怒人们。

This is an unwelcome dilemma¹¹. Either the state continues to make claims that it believes to be valid¹² and is accused by sceptics of propaganda, or else, politicians and officials are confined to saying what feels plausible¹³ and intuitively true, but may ultimately be inaccurate¹⁴. Either way, politics becomes mired¹⁵ in accusations¹⁶ of lies and cover-ups.

这是一个不受欢迎的两难境地。政府要么继续发表它认为有效的言论，并被怀疑论者指责为宣传，要么，政客和官员只能说一些看似可信、直观上真实的东西，但最终可能是不准确的。不管怎样，政治会陷入谎言和掩盖的指控中。

1 vividly   

adv.清楚地，鲜明地，生动地

参考例句：

• The speaker pictured the suffering of the poor vividly.演讲者很生动地描述了穷人的生活。
• The characters in the book are vividly presented.这本书里的人物写得栩栩如生。

2 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

3 multiculturalism   

n.多元文化

参考例句：

• Switzerland is well known for cheese fondue, penguin parades and its multiculturalism. 瑞士一向以芝士火锅，企鹅游行和多元文化等特色闻名于世。
• That may be one reason why multiculturalism came easily to it. 这也是多元文化容易适应发展的原因之一。

4 qualitative   

adj.性质上的，质的，定性的

参考例句：

• There are qualitative differences in the way children and adults think.孩子和成年人的思维方式有质的不同。
• Arms races have a quantitative and a qualitative aspects.军备竞赛具有数量和质量两个方面。

5 alleged   

a.被指控的，嫌疑的

参考例句：

• It was alleged that he had taken bribes while in office. 他被指称在任时收受贿赂。
• alleged irregularities in the election campaign 被指称竞选运动中的不正当行为

6 elicit   

v.引出,抽出,引起

参考例句：

• It was designed to elicit the best thinking within the government. 机构的设置是为了在政府内部集思广益。
• Don't try to elicit business secrets from me. I won't tell you anything. 你休想从我这里套问出我们的商业机密, 我什么都不会告诉你的。

7 elitism   

n.精英论，优秀人士统治

参考例句：

• Many people believe that private education encourages elitism.许多人认为私立教育助长精英主义。
• We must avoid cultural elitism.我们必须避免文化精英主义。

8 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

9 scoff   

n.嘲笑，笑柄，愚弄；v.嘲笑，嘲弄，愚弄，狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• You are not supposed to scoff at religion.你不该嘲弄宗教。
• He was the scoff of the town.他成为全城的笑柄。

10 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

11 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

12 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

13 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

14 inaccurate   

adj.错误的，不正确的，不准确的

参考例句：

• The book is both inaccurate and exaggerated.这本书不但不准确，而且夸大其词。
• She never knows the right time because her watch is inaccurate.她从来不知道准确的时间因为她的表不准。

15 mired   

abbr.microreciprocal degree 迈尔德（色温单位）v.深陷( mire的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The country was mired in recession. 这个国家陷入了经济衰退的困境。
• The most brilliant leadership can be mired in detail. 最有才干的领导也会陷于拘泥琐事的困境中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 accusations   

n.指责( accusation的名词复数 )；指控；控告；（被告发、控告的）罪名

参考例句：

• There were accusations of plagiarism. 曾有过关于剽窃的指控。
• He remained unruffled by their accusations. 对于他们的指控他处之泰然。