Experts Consider Cost of Ending North Korea’s Nuclear Activities

 

The world will be watching when the leaders of the United States and North Korea meet in Singapore on June 12. People are wondering whether U.S. President Donald Trump¹ and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un can reach a nuclear agreement.

Some experts have attempted to estimate the amount of time and money needed to take apart North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. They estimate that the disarmament process could last up to 10 years and cost $20 billion.

Trump has said he expects a “very positive result” from the Singapore summit. He said that the talks represent the beginning of a process that will take time.

Arms experts are trying to imagine what that process will look like.

Daryl Kimball is the head of the Arms Control Association in Washington. He said that much needs to be done by all the nations involved.

“It is going to take sustained energy on the part of the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and North Korea. It’s going to be a multiyear-long process,” he said.

United Nations resolutions designed to punish the North for its nuclear activities remain in effect. Those sanctions have severely³ limited much of North Korea's economic activity.

However, U.S. Defense⁴ Secretary Jim Mattis said this week that sanctions would only be eased after North Korea takes “verifiable and irreversible steps to denuclearization.”

The North’s government has suggested that it supports the idea of making concessions⁵ over time, with each side giving up something in answer to the other’s actions.

But the North has opposed moving quickly to disarm² before any concessions are offered.

North Korea’s nuclear program

North Korea is thought to possess 20 to 80 nuclear weapons. It also has nuclear research centers; some are known to international experts, but others are secret.

In addition, the country has thousands of long-distance missiles.

A recent study found that the U.S. goal of completely ending North Korea’s nuclear program could cost as much as $20 billion. Kwon Hyuk-chul, a professor of security strategy at Kookmin University in Seoul, helped carry out the study.

Kwon based his estimate on earlier nuclear deals with the North. He also studied Ukraine’s experience when disarming⁶ its nuclear weapons after the collapse⁷ of the Soviet⁸ Union.

Kwon said, in the case of Ukraine, “All of the strategic nuclear warheads that Ukraine possessed⁹ were transferred to Russia and dismantled¹¹ there.”

He noted¹² that the U.S. government provided containers and technical support for the effort.

The Kookmin University study estimated that dismantling¹³ North Korea’s nuclear weapons and supporting centers would cost $5 billion. Another $5 billion, Kwon said, would be needed to act on a U.S. promise to build two nuclear reactors¹⁴ for electricity. The reactors were part of a 1994 nuclear agreement.

The study found that another $10 billion in aid would be needed to help build the North Korean economy and to move up to 10,000 nuclear workers to peacetime activities.

Trump has said he does not expect the U.S. government to provide aid to North Korea. But Trump said he would offer private American investment to the North if it gives up nuclear weapons. He added that North Korea should look to South Korea and China for any direct economic aid.

A recent Stanford University report gave a time estimate for the nuclear disarmament process. It said it could take over 10 years for the North to permanently¹⁵ dismantle¹⁰ its nuclear weapons.

I’m Mario Ritter.

Words in This Story

positive – adj. good, useful

summit – n. a meeting between two or more leaders or heads of state

sustained – adj. providing what is needed for something carry on

strategic – adj. related to a general plan created to reach a larger goal, usually over a long period of time

verifiable – adj. something that can be proven as true

irreversible – adj. something that cannot be changed

concessions – n things that are given to reach an agreement

transferred – adj. to move something from one place to anouther

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 disarm   

v.解除武装，回复平常的编制，缓和

参考例句：

• The world has waited 12 years for Iraq to disarm. 全世界等待伊拉克解除武装已有12年之久。
• He has rejected every peaceful opportunity offered to him to disarm.他已经拒绝了所有能和平缴械的机会。

3 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

4 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

5 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

6 disarming   

adj.消除敌意的，使人消气的v.裁军( disarm的现在分词 )；使息怒

参考例句：

• He flashed her a disarming smile. 他朝她笑了一下，让她消消气。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We will agree to disarming troops and leaving their weapons at military positions. 我们将同意解除军队的武装并把武器留在军事阵地。 来自辞典例句

7 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

8 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

9 possessed   

adj.疯狂的；拥有的，占有的

参考例句：

• He flew out of the room like a man possessed.他像着了魔似地猛然冲出房门。
• He behaved like someone possessed.他行为举止像是魔怔了。

10 dismantle   

vt.拆开，拆卸；废除，取消

参考例句：

• He asked for immediate help from the United States to dismantle the warheads.他请求美国立即提供援助，拆除这批弹头。
• The mower firmly refused to mow,so I decided to dismantle it.修完后割草机还是纹丝不动，于是，我决定把它拆开。

11 dismantled   

拆开( dismantle的过去式和过去分词 )； 拆卸； 废除； 取消

参考例句：

• The plant was dismantled of all its equipment and furniture. 这家工厂的设备和家具全被拆除了。
• The Japanese empire was quickly dismantled. 日本帝国很快被打垮了。

12 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

13 dismantling   

（枪支）分解

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。
• The dismantling of a nuclear reprocessing plant caused a leak of radioactivity yesterday. 昨天拆除核后处理工厂引起了放射物泄漏。

14 reactors   

起反应的人( reactor的名词复数 )； 反应装置； 原子炉； 核反应堆

参考例句：

• The TMI nuclear facility has two reactors. 三哩岛核设施有两个反应堆。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• The earliest production reactors necessarily used normal uranium as fuel. 最早为生产用的反应堆，必须使用普通铀作为燃料。

15 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。