Could a Cyberattack Lead to a Real War?

Could a Cyberattack Lead to a Real War?

International security experts have warned that internet attacks by major world powers on other governments could lead to a real war. But they say it is not easy to define what kind cyberattack would be considered an act of war.

President Joe Biden said in July that if the United States ended up in a war with a major power it could "be as a consequence of a cyber breach¹ of great consequence." Biden made the comments to leaders of the U.S. intelligence community.

Tensions are currently high between Russia and members of the NATO alliance over a possible conflict in Ukraine. Russia has deployed² more than 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. U.S. and NATO officials have expressed concern that Russia may invade Ukraine.

Some Western officials have also warned about the danger of Russia possibly launching harmful cyberattacks against Ukraine or NATO allies. But experts say there is no clear line for how severe a cyberattack would have to be before it resulted in military action.

"The rules are fuzzy," said Max Smeets, director of the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative, to The Associated Press. "It's not clear what is allowed, what isn't allowed," he added.

The U.S. and other NATO members have threatened to put economic restrictions³ on Russia if it sends troops into Ukraine. But it is less clear if such restrictions would be put in place if Russia launched a serious cyberattack.

Currently, arms control treaties do not provide detailed⁴ guidelines on how state-backed cyberattacks should be dealt with. It can also be difficult to quickly identify who is behind such attacks. Criminals and independent attackers can also work together with governments, making it harder to target specific blame.

In 2015, major world powers and others agreed at the United Nations on a set of 11 voluntary guidelines for international cyber behavior. But those guidelines have mostly been ignored.

Ukraine has blamed Russia for a cyberattack last month on Ukrainian government websites. Experts say the damage from that internet attack – which affected⁵ servers at several agencies – was not considered serious.

But cybersecurity company CrowdStrike recently said on its website it thinks such attacks are likely to continue as Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to "delegitimize" trust in Ukraine's government.

Michele Markoff is the deputy coordinator⁶ for cyber issues for the U.S. State Department. She said she thinks it will require, what she calls, "muscular diplomacy⁷" to end such "immoral⁸" and "destabilizing" behavior.

But it is unclear how such diplomatic efforts can be effectively carried out. Unlike nuclear arms, cyberweapons cannot easily be limited in treaties and they are difficult to identify. Violators are also not likely to be held responsible by the United Nations, since Russia and China both hold veto power on the Security Council.

NATO approved a new U.S.-supported policy last year. Under the policy, repeated lower-level cyberattacks could be enough to activate⁹ NATO's Article 5. The article states that any attack on any of the alliance's 30 members is considered an attack on all. But NATO rules are currently not clear on exactly what kind of cyberattack would be covered under Article 5.

Serhii Demediuk is with Ukraine's National Security and Defense¹⁰ Council. He told the AP the U.S. and other NATO partners have been helping¹¹ Ukraine set up a separate cyber military organization.

In November, Ukraine said it had discovered an eight-year spying operation by agents of Russia's FSB security service that involved more than 5,000 attempted cyberattacks. Ukraine's state-run news agency said the goal of the operation was to gain control over important infrastructure¹².

This month, American software company Microsoft said the cyber operation is ongoing¹³. It said it found evidence of attempts to break into Ukraine's military, judiciary and law enforcement systems. But Microsoft said no damage was discovered so far.

Words in This Story

consequence – n. the result of an action or situation

breach – n. an action that breaks a rule, agreement or law

fuzzy – adj. confusing and not clear

allow – v. to permit

delegitimize – v. make something seen as not valid¹⁴ or acceptable

destabilize – v. to make a government, area or political group lose power or control

infrastructure – n. the basic equipment and structures (such as roads and bridges) that are needed for a country or area

1 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

2 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

3 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

4 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

5 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

6 coordinator   

n.协调人

参考例句：

• The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, headed by the Emergency Relief Coordinator, coordinates all UN emergency relief. 联合国人道主义事务协调厅在紧急救济协调员领导下，负责协调联合国的所有紧急救济工作。
• How am I supposed to find the client-relations coordinator? 我怎么才能找到客户关系协调员的办公室？

7 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

8 immoral   

adj.不道德的，淫荡的，荒淫的，有伤风化的

参考例句：

• She was questioned about his immoral conduct toward her.她被询问过有关他对她的不道德行为的情况。
• It is my belief that nuclear weapons are immoral.我相信使核武器是不邪恶的。

9 activate   

vt.使活动起来，使开始起作用

参考例句：

• We must activate the youth to study.我们要激励青年去学习。
• These push buttons can activate the elevator.这些按钮能启动电梯。

10 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

11 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

12 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

13 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

14 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？