出生率下降和人均寿命的提高导致全球人口老龄化危机

 

Fewer Babies, Rising Longevity¹ Lead to Global Aging Crisis

出生率下降和人均寿命的提高导致全球人口老龄化危机

 

 In the year 2000, fertility rates in Europe and other parts of the developed world fell to levels never before recorded. Europe's population is now expected to shrink significantly in coming decades.

 

The United Nations says that birth rates of 2.1 children per woman are needed to replace the population. Yet only four developed countries in the world have birth rates above the replacement² level.

 

Fertility in the United Kingdom has dropped to 1.6 children per woman. Germany's is now 1.4. And women in Italy have an average of just 1.2 children.

 

Bill Frey, a demographer³ at the Brookings Institution research group in Washington D.C., projects that European labor⁴ forces and economies will soon shrink along with the population.

 

"I've always used this metaphor⁵ that Europe was going to become this geriatric ghetto⁶ among countries of the world. They're going to become increasingly smaller; the continent of Europe is going to lose 100 million people over the next 50 years. It's going to become increasingly aged," he said.

 

Mr. Frey projects that in 2050, Europe will have a median age of about 52. In the United States, by contrast, the median age will be under 40 because of comparatively high fertility and immigration levels.

 

In 30 or 40 years, Mr. Frey says that there will only be a 1:1 ratio between each worker and retiree in Europe. He says that by mid-century in the United States, the ratio of working-age people supporting each retiree will still be just over 2:1.

 

As the Bush administration warns of a looming⁷ emergency in the U.S. retirement⁸ program known as social security, Mr. Frey argues that the aging crisis is far worse in the rest of the developed world.

 

"We're much better off here in the United States than in most of Europe and in Japan simply because we have a bit more breathing room, I guess you could say. So if the administration thinks we have a crisis here, I don't know what they should be thinking in Italy or in England or in Germany. Because they have a catastrophic crisis there," Mr. Frey said.

 

Many European countries have introduced incentives¹⁰ to encourage residents to have more children. This small town of Laviano in Italy is offering couples almost $12,000 for each newborn baby.

 

But these bonuses appear to have little effect on birth rates.  Some analysts¹¹ argue that more comprehensive social programs are needed to offset¹² the expense of having a child.

 

Phil Longman is a demographer at the New America Foundation research group in Washington D.C.

 

"We live in a society in which more and more it really doesn't make economic sense to have children. That's not only unfair, it's imprudent in a society that's increasingly consuming more human capital than it's producing," he noted¹³.

 

Some analysts believe that shrinking populations in Europe and other developed countries will profoundly affect global economics and even security.

 

Richard Jackson is head of the global aging initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies( CSIS), in Washington D.C.

 

"Graying means paying more for pensions, more for health care, more for nursing homes, more for social services for the elderly," he said.

 

Mr. Jackson says by the 2030s, developed countries will have to spend almost a quarter of their gross domestic product on services for the elderly, up from about 12 percent today. The fiscal¹⁴ strain will be especially great in Japan and Europe. He says rising retirement costs will divert resources from defense¹⁵ and international affairs, and developed countries may have difficulty recruiting for their militaries.

 

Mr. Jackson says that demographic changes may well determine which countries remain great powers in the future.

 

"Historians have observed that the rise and fall of civilizations is often linked to demographic trends, and that contracting populations give way not just militarily but economically and ultimately culturally to expanding populations," Mr. Jackson said.

 

While the population of Europe will soon begin to contract, Mr. Jackson says that populations in the Middle East and Central Asia will expand for decades to come. Fertility has declined in these areas, but demographic momentum¹⁶ will keep the population relatively¹⁷ young until mid-century. 

 

One of the only regions in the world to maintain high fertility rates is sub-Saharan Africa, with more than five children per woman on average. But the AIDS and HIV pandemic have ravaged¹⁸ populations there.  

 

The only large, developed country to maintain stable fertility levels is the United States, where the population is expected to grow significantly in coming decades.

 

Leta Hong Fincher VOA News.

 

注释：

fertility rate 生产率

birth rate 出生率

ratio [5reiFiEu] n. 比率

retiree [ri7taiE5ri:] n. 退休人员

better off 状况好的

catastrophic [7kAtE5strCfik] adj. 灾难的

incentive⁹ [in5sentiv] n. 动机

bonus [5bEunEs] n. 补助费

demographer [di:5mC^rEfE(r)] n. 人口统计学家

profoundly [prE5faJndli] adv. 深深地

domestic product 国产品

1 longevity   

n.长命；长寿

参考例句：

• Good habits promote longevity.良好的习惯能增长寿命。
• Human longevity runs in families.人类的长寿具有家族遗传性。

2 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

3 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

4 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

5 metaphor   

n.隐喻，暗喻

参考例句：

• Using metaphor,we say that computers have senses and a memory.打个比方，我们可以说计算机有感觉和记忆力。
• In poetry the rose is often a metaphor for love.玫瑰在诗中通常作为爱的象征。

6 ghetto   

n.少数民族聚居区，贫民区

参考例句：

• Racism and crime still flourish in the ghetto.城市贫民区的种族主义和犯罪仍然十分猖獗。
• I saw that achievement as a possible pattern for the entire ghetto.我把获得的成就看作整个黑人区可以仿效的榜样。

7 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

8 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

9 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

10 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

12 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

13 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

14 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

15 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

16 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

17 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

18 ravaged   

毁坏( ravage的过去式和过去分词 )； 蹂躏； 劫掠； 抢劫

参考例句：

• a country ravaged by civil war 遭受内战重创的国家
• The whole area was ravaged by forest fires. 森林火灾使整个地区荒废了。