VOA标准英语2009年-Fallout of 2009 Iran Protests to Carry

2009 marked the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Shah of Iran and the establishment of a new Islamic Republic to replace the monarchy¹. But a questionable² presidential election in 2009 also sparked the largest anti-government demonstrations³ in Iran since that revolution.

Gary Thomas | Washington 17 December 2009

 
Photo: AFP
Supporters of Iran's defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi dressed in black during a mass protest in Tehran, 18 Jun 2009

 
When protests erupted over the declared outcome of the June presidential election, many Western analysts⁴ proclaimed Iran was on the eve of a new revolution that would topple the theocracy⁵.  But it did not happen.  Not only was there was no revolution, but the theocratic⁶ rulers remain in power and many of the protesters have been arrested and tried.

No revolution

Some Iran-watchers say that was because the protesters were not able to draw support from the middle-class shopkeepers and merchants.  But others say the explanation is simpler. 

The head of the National Iranian-American Council, Trita Parsi, says it is because the protesters were never demonstrating for regime change - at least not in the beginning.

"I think the reason there was not a revolution was that they were not aiming for a revolution.  This movement started off by people demanding that their votes be counted.  As the government showed itself to be completely uncompromising and radical⁷ in its clampdown and started to use violence in the extreme, then of course the demands of the protest began to increase," said Parsi.

Demonstrations continue

The protests have continued, but more sporadically⁸, and Parsi says the situation remains⁹ very, very volatile¹⁰.  The protesters have gotten more radical and the government's rhetoric¹¹ against the reformists has correspondingly ratcheted up as well.  Parsi says the protesters will have to bend a bit to avoid a government bid to totally wipe out the reformists.

"If they manage to continue this fight, if they manage to continue deprive the government of any normalcy, then, in order for them to actually claim victory, they need to offer a way out.  Otherwise, the government will feel they have no other option but to be radical as well," said Parsi.

Reformists criticized

Senior officials have publicly criticized key reformist figures, like Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and former presidents Mohammad Khatemi and Hashemi Rafsanjani for the protests but these figures remain at liberty. 

Editor Alex Vatanka, of the English-language newsletter on the Islamic world, Jane's Islamic Affairs, says that may indicate President Ahmadinejad and Supreme¹² Leader Ali Khamenei have concerns about a potentially explosive situation.

"If Khamenei or Ahmadinejad factions¹³ were so powerful, why are they not arresting Rafsanjani and Khatemi and Moussavi and Karroubi?  Why are these people, despite the allegations they are making, why are they still free?  That right away brings to my mind the question, maybe they are not powerful enough, brave enough, to do it because they know might unleash¹⁴ something they can not control," said Vatanka. 

Nuclear complications

The protests complicated U.S. President Barack Obama's plans to reach out to Tehran and Iran's response to those overtures¹⁵, particularly on the sensitive nuclear issue.

Iran continues to insist it has only a peaceful nuclear program.  But in October Iran appeared to finally agree in principle to sending nuclear material to a third country for enrichment.  But Iranian officials then backed away from the proposed deal after it came under criticism in Tehran.

Alex Vatanka says it is not clear if the shifting response was a sign of political overreach by President Ahmadinejad or a stalling tactic¹⁶.

"Question is, was this miscommunication?  Was this Ahmadinejad's people getting ahead of themselves in pursuit of perhaps reaching some sort of dialogue with the West and Khamenei being upset about it and stopping it in Tehran? Or is it a deliberate, fully¹⁷ calculated, tactical game that Iran, some have argued for a while, plays, which is, plays for time?" asked Vatanka.

Other analysts suggest it was because power is too deeply fractured and diffuse¹⁸ for Iran's leaders to reach a consensus¹⁹ on such a sensitive issue.

Will sanctions work?

Whatever the reason, the response has heightened a push for new sanctions against Iran at the UN and from the U.S. Congress as well. But analysts say any sanctions should be carefully calibrated²⁰ against the government of Iran and not the Iranian people. 

Trita Parsi says sanctions could backfire against the reformist movement.

"What you do not want to do is put the opposition²¹ into a position in which they suddenly now, instead of focusing their energy on challenging Ahmadinejad, have to defend themselves and defend their nationalistic credentials²² by coming out and blasting the U.S. sanctions.  The opposition is in a tough position enough fighting such a brutal²³, repressive system," said Parsi.

But analysts point out that no significant sanctions will be coming without the backing of Russia and China.  Both have so far been reluctant to back such measures. 
 

1 monarchy   

n.君主，最高统治者；君主政体，君主国

参考例句：

• The monarchy in England plays an important role in British culture.英格兰的君主政体在英国文化中起重要作用。
• The power of the monarchy in Britain today is more symbolical than real.今日英国君主的权力多为象徵性的，无甚实际意义。

2 questionable   

adj.可疑的，有问题的

参考例句：

• There are still a few questionable points in the case.这个案件还有几个疑点。
• Your argument is based on a set of questionable assumptions.你的论证建立在一套有问题的假设上。

3 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 theocracy   

n.神权政治；僧侣政治

参考例句：

• Shangzhou was an important period for the formation and development of theocracy.商周时期是神权政治形成与发展的重要阶段。
• The Muslim brothers look as if they will opt for civil society rather than theocracy.穆斯林兄弟看起来好像更适合文明的社会，而非神权统治。

6 theocratic   

adj.神权的，神权政治的

参考例句：

• The priest caste wields considerable power in this rigidly theocratic society. 祭司阶层(priestcaste)在这个严格的神权社会中掌握着相当大的权力。 来自互联网
• The heartland of Islam, by contrast, is theocratic. 相反，伊斯兰教的核心地带则是神权政治。 来自互联网

7 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

8 sporadically   

adv.偶发地，零星地

参考例句：

• There are some trees sporadically around his house. 他的房子周围零星地有点树木。 来自辞典例句
• As for other aspects, we will sporadically hand out questionnaires. 在其他方面，我们会偶尔发送调查问卷。 来自互联网

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

11 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

12 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

13 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

14 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

15 overtures   

n.主动的表示，提议；（向某人做出的）友好表示、姿态或提议( overture的名词复数 )；（歌剧、芭蕾舞、音乐剧等的）序曲，前奏曲

参考例句：

• Their government is making overtures for peace. 他们的政府正在提出和平建议。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He had lately begun to make clumsy yet endearing overtures of friendship. 最近他开始主动表示友好，样子笨拙却又招人喜爱。 来自辞典例句

16 tactic   

n.战略，策略；adj.战术的，有策略的

参考例句：

• Reducing prices is a common sales tactic.降价是常用的销售策略。
• She had often used the tactic of threatening to resign.她惯用以辞职相威胁的手法。

17 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

18 diffuse   

v.扩散；传播；adj.冗长的；四散的，弥漫的

参考例句：

• Direct light is better for reading than diffuse light.直射光比漫射光更有利于阅读。
• His talk was so diffuse that I missed his point.他的谈话漫无边际，我抓不住他的要点。

19 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

20 calibrated   

v.校准( calibrate的过去式和过去分词 )；使标准化；使合标准；测量（枪的）口径

参考例句：

• Power pesticide dusters can be calibrated and used to apply pertilizer. 动力杀虫剂可以调整用来施肥。 来自辞典例句
• The flexible diaphragm is connected to a plat cantilever-calibrated spring. 柔韧的膜片一扁平的悬臂校正弹簧相连。 来自辞典例句

21 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

22 credentials   

n.证明，资格，证明书，证件

参考例句：

• He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作资历很深。
• Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此项工作的两个求职者都非常符合资格。

23 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。